Andrew Miskelly

@anero.id

Learning from meteorologists, climatologists, engineers, cartographers, aviators, authentic Christians and other good sorts. Fediverse @andrewmiskelly@anero.id

This system will bring decent snowfalls to the high country in TAS, VIC and NSW, but will once again have very limited effect north of the Snowy Mountains Highway.

Strongly positive AAO/SAM (Antarctica 🟦 → midlatitudes 🟥) behind the return to onshore winds over eastern Australia, and the non-arrival of Australia's ski season.

A persistent ridge 🟨 over the Tasman Sea (linked to the warm June to date over central and eastern Australia) is showing signs of shifting, but the polar vortex 🟦 is tight (positive SAM/AAO), so no major cold outbreaks in the near term for southern Australia.

Persistent high pressure near New Zealand driving easterly winds over a warm Tasman Sea produced record warm mean temperatures over parts of south east Australia during May.

Provisional sea level pressure anomaly during May 2026. Comparison between analyses from NCEP GFS and the 1991-2020 mean from ECMWF ERA5.Provisional sea surface temperature anomaly during May 2026, from NOAA/NCEI OISST.https://reg.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/temp/index.jsp?colour=colour&time=latest&step=0&map=meandecile&period=month&area=nat