A post on the history of replacement Premier. Short term replacements for long term Premiers, and the rare cases of governments having three Premiers in a single term. antonygreen.com.au/the-record-o...
The Record of Late-Term Succession Premiers
Multi-term periods of party government in Australia have usually come to be associated with the leader that brought the party to office. We often call these periods of government eras. The less com…
antonygreen.com.au
The Impact on Senate Election Results of Abolishing GVTs – the Lessons for Victoria. Abolishing GVTs in 2016 ended preference harvesting and changed who gets elected by increasing the importance of votes over preferences. antonygreen.com.au/the-impact-o...
South Australian electoral boundaries finalised for the next Federal election. The vast outback seat of Grey has been re-named O'Donoghue, but otherwise minimal change with 5 of the 10 seats retaining their existing boundaries. Less than 2% of voters change seat. antonygreen.com.au/fed2026-redi...
Antony Green's Election Blog
Musings on Elections and Politics
antonygreen.com.au
20 years ago the Tasmanian seat of Lyons touched the state's east, north and west coasts. After today's redistribution it is now entirely landlocked and includes a new urban corner with the inclusion of northern Hobart. My redistribution analysis at antonygreen.com.au/fed2026-redi...
Final ACT electoral boundaries released for the next Federal election. Not very much change, but if you are interested, you can read the details at my election blog. antonygreen.com.au/fed26-redist...
FED26 Redistributions – Final Boundaries Released for A.C.T.
The final boundaries for the ACT have been released. Maps and numbers of voters transferred have not been released, but I have managed to estimate new margins using data published with the draft bo…
antonygreen.com.au
ABS statistics released today mean no change to state representation in the House at the next Federal election. Queensland falls short of gaining a 31st seat. The official determination will be made by the Electoral Commissioner in July. antonygreen.com.au/abs-populati...
The graph below with its non-existent parties caused much mirth. But the analysis in the article has a number of faults including assertions about strong flows of Green preferences to One Nation at the SA election. antonygreen.com.au/the-financia...
The Financial Review’s Inaccurate Preference Analysis
One Nation’s polling surge has triggered an intense dissection of recent election results. One Nation made the final preference count at the recent Farrer by-election. One Nation also finishe…
antonygreen.com.au
Haruspicy will abound next week as analysts inspect the entrails of this weekend's Nepean by-election trying to divine prospects for November's Victorian state election. And next week's Farrer by-election. #springst #nepean antonygreen.com.au/vic2026-nepe...
While writs have been returned for the SA election, the discovery of an unopened absent early ballot box from Port Pirie is causing problems. The votes match the roll mark-off, with 81 for Narungga where One Nation won by 58 votes. I've just posted on the subject. antonygreen.com.au/sa2026-it-tu...
SA2026 – it turns out the count ain’t over
Just when you thought counting was over for the SA election, it turns out another box of absent early votes has been located. The votes were cast at the Port Pirie Early Voting Centre in the electo…
antonygreen.com.au
A big win for Labor at the SA election but a warning in the result detail. Swings to Labor in Liberal and Labor marginal seats, but big swings against Labor and to One Nation in Labor's safe seats. antonygreen.com.au/sa2026-huge-...
he electoral version of "doing a Bradbury". Independent Lou Nicholson wins the South Australian seat of Finniss from fourth place after the distribution of preferences. #auspol antonygreen.com.au/sa2026-finni...
As counting winds up for the South Australian election, it looks like fourth placed Independent candidate Lou Nicholson will win the seat of Finniss. I explain why it happened in this post. But it won't be a win from the lowest primary vote. From antonygreen.com.au
Antony Green's Election Blog
Musings on Elections and Politics
antonygreen.com.au
Early voting going gangbusters for the SA election. With two days to go, numbers have passed total for 2022. This is first SA election where Early votes will be counted on the night. This post has the early and postal numbers plus detailed figures by district. antonygreen.com.au/sa2026-track...
88% of Green preferences flowed to Labor at the 2025 election but not by "deals". Green voters reflexively preference Labor which shows up in seats like Fremantle where the Greens didn't recommend preference to Labor but the Independent still lost. antonygreen.com.au/do-greens-vo...
The how-to-votes are out for the SA election. Does it matter what they recommend? Check out my post from December with full detail on whether voters followed HTVs in 2022 including a link to detailed analysis of 2022 preference flows. antonygreen.com.au/do-how-to-vo...
A record 388 candidates to contest the lower House of Assembly at the South Australian election on 21 March. That's an average of 8.3 candidates per seat. antonygreen.com.au/sa2026-close...
A trawl through the draft electoral boundaries for Tasmania released on Friday. antonygreen.com.au/fed26-redist...
FED26 Redistribution – Tasmania Draft Boundaries
Last Friday the Australian Electoral Commission issued draft electoral boundaries for Tasmania. It was the first of this year’s round of federal redistributions. Draft boundaries for the ACT …
antonygreen.com.au
s Farrer more traditionally a Liberal or National seat? I break down the last Liberal versus National contest in 2001 by local government area. But boundary changes since have added a big slice of National voting territory from the Riverina. antonygreen.com.au/farrer-a-lib...
Farrer – a Liberal or National Seat?
In a previous post published on Friday, I went through a detailed history of the Farrer electorate. In short, the seat was created in 1949. Until 1983 the seat was based on the southern NSW rural c…
antonygreen.com.au
My latest post is a big drop of new data. For the first time I publish two-party preferred preference data in so-called Non-Classic divisions, including high profile Independents. Data for the 2019, 2022 and 2025 elections. antonygreen.com.au/fed2025-inde...
Coalition to face messy by-election in Farrer with Sussan Ley retiring. Certain to be Liberal and National candidates, One Nation in the field with the liklehood of local Independents as well. antonygreen.com.au/will-the-coa...
The Coalition to face a messy by-election in Sussan Ley’s seat of Farrer
After losing the Liberal leadership this morning, Sussan Ley has announced she will resign as member for her southern NSW seat of Farrer. Ley has held the seat since 2001 when she took it from the …
antonygreen.com.au
The success of local Independents, the contest in Kooyong and what it tells us about where national politics is going. antonygreen.com.au/the-success-...
One Nation finished as one of the top three candidates versus Labor and the Coalition in 25 seats last May. These seats with One Nation in the 3CP would be amongst the legitimate first targets for the party on current polling. antonygreen.com.au/one-nations-...
As in the past, the Nationals have increased their % of Coalition seats in opposition. The collapse in Liberal seats has delivered the Nationals more power, but can National policy priorities fight ONP and help Liberals win city seats? antonygreen.com.au/here-we-go-a...
The Coalition split and the re-emergence of One Nation. Lessons on what a 20% vote for One Nation looks like from the only other election to produce such a result, Queensland 1998. antonygreen.com.au/the-coalitio...
My wrap of the Federal election result in Queensland. It continues to be Labor's worst state, but as in 2022, not bad enough to deny Labor victory. Labor gained seven seats including two from the Greens and Peter Dutton's seat of Dickson. antonygreen.com.au/fed2025-hous...
Do voters just copy how-to-vote preference recommendations? Clearly not if you look at available data. Here's some Christmas reading with my latest post on HTVs and preferences based on data from the 2022 South Australian election. antonygreen.com.au/do-how-to-vo...
More party name games. The VEC has approved a name change, Companions and Pets Party now known as End Mass Migration - Reform AU. Might be a crowded field by later in the year. Though there will be no benefit from group voting tickets if they are abolished as promised. #springst
I'm back to looking at the 2025 Federal election result, this time explaining the Victorian results. At the start of the campaign Victoria was where Labor could lose the election, but in the end the state delivered Labor a record result. More detail here. antonygreen.com.au/fed2025-hous...
If the Senate were increased to 14 Senators per state in 2028, as is rumoured, the next half-Senate election would be for 8 Senators with the quota reduced to 11.1%. That would be very tempting for One Nation.
Talk of One Nation’s Barnaby Joyce taking a NSW Senate seat from the Nationals is not correct. The NSW Coalition agreement reserves Senate spot 2 for the Nationals in 2028. It would be the third Liberal seat at risk. Unless the Coalition polls under 20%.