Aria Gerson

@aria-gerson.bsky.social

Vanderbilt and college baseball for Tennessean/USA TODAY Network | K-BB% enthusiast | Lover of spreadsheets, collector of minor league t-shirts, hater of replay 📧agerson@gannett.com 🐦aria_gerson 📷agersonsports

but have the owners considered that I was at those winter meetings reporting a story about Vanderbilt and the lack of action allowed me to ask Vanderbilt-related questions in pressers without getting any funny looks

(from fangraphs): "Point no. 2: I understand why Manfred is licking his chops at the idea of a free agent bonanza every offseason. This all dates back to 2023, when everyone went to the Winter Meetings in Nashville and twiddled their thumbs waiting for Shohei Ohtani to sign. Manfred, his people, and a lot of the national newsbreakers had a freakout because the market was waiting for Ohtani, and Ohtani’s agent wasn’t leaking anything publishable."

after creating a spreadsheet and crunching a bunch of data, I am pleased to say,,,,,, My season-long suspicion that Vanderbilt had the best infield and outfield defense and the worst pitcher and catcher defense in the SEC was 100% correct (by the D1Baseball Defensive Runs Saved, anyway)

anytime the "here's what party professional athletes are registered as" discourse comes up, y'all have to remember that some states don't have party registration, it's not people trying to hide their affiliation. I've lived in two different states + never registered with a party!

the thing I'm fascinated by is the juxtaposition of the Brewers with some of the upstart teams this season like the Nationals and White Sox whose strategies are basically "get guys who crush baseballs and worry about the rest later." and it's not like those are expensive rosters!

Mike Petriello@mikepetriello.bsky.social · 3d ago

Wrote about what the Brewers are doing this time to score runs without homers, including.. ⚾️they don't swing ⚾️they're the only team with an oppo attack angle ⚾️the situation where they're an *elite* HR team www.mlb.com/news/2026-br...

Every year people complain about how there aren’t enough college shortstops and/or not enough great hit tool guy in the draft class but that’s the system working exactly as intended cause if MLB teams think a player can play shortstop AND hit they get drafted out of HS

Baseball America@baseballamerica.com · 7d ago

What are the strengths + weaknesses of the 2027 college draft class? BA's J.J. Cooper + Carlos Collazo discuss summer college draft prospects in the latest episode of the Draft podcast ⚾️ 🎧 Listen here: buff.ly/Lx2XySX

I think that trying to strip defense out of run prevention and just attributing it to luck has done irreparable harm to baseball analysis cause if some team sucks and no one can figure out why based on the talent,,,,,,,it's always the defense

only semi-related but I very much appreciate the use of "runners on" instead of RISP here because a Sal Stewart homer with a runner on first >>> a JJ Wetherholt single with a runner on second, but under RISP stats only one of those gets credit

Mike Petriello@mikepetriello.bsky.social · last wk.

Ironically, JJ Wetherholt & Sal Stewart have exactly the same wOBA with runners on, .348. JJ better OBP, Sal better SLG. Stewart has 74 more PA with runners on. But he drives in a runner once every 3 PA w/ runners on, and for JJ it's once every 5. It's both things.

Several Vanderbilt baseball alums in the minors have recently been promoted. Riley Nelson ➡️ High-A Sawyer Hawks, Cody Bowker, JD Thompson, Devin Futrell, Jacob Humphrey ➡️ Double-A Davis Diaz ➡️ Triple-A

one of my big hot takes about baseball stats is that the correct stat to measure team run prevention is just runs allowed, not ERA or FIP. FIP (or K-BB% or SIERA or whatever) is good for individual pitchers! It's not good for teams because you do not want to strip out defense on a team level.

Chris Towers is In The Dog Days of Summer@cptowers.bsky.social · last wk.

It just arbitrarily decides that some hits and runs and plate appearances don’t actually matter, based on the judgment of some guy in the press box.

Something you learn watching truly elite defenders is they are almost always insane risk takers. You watch them go for a ball like “wtf, why would he do that???” and then he makes the play like 80% of the time. But the 20% looks really bad and gets plastered over social media

Chris Towers is In The Dog Days of Summer@cptowers.bsky.social · last wk.

Shohei Ohtani strikes out at the plate. Shohei Ohtani gives up hits and home runs and walks when he pitches. This focus some have on like the 5 bad plays PCA has made all season is very silly!

it’s fascinating to me how different the baseball transfer rankings are from D1, BA and 64Anayltics. There are players who rank in the top 20 of one and not in the top 50 of the other

The thing about tanking in sports is that rules that disincentivize tanking necessarily take some players off the market for top teams to acquire, thus making top teams more mediocre. People complain about tanking but when leagues try to prevent it, it's "there are too many mediocre teams."

Baseball America@baseballamerica.com · 2w ago

If the MLB playoffs started today, the 61-63 (.492) Orioles would be the third and final Wild Card team in the AL. No sub-.500 team has ever made the playoffs in a full 162-game season. BA's J.J. Cooper has more: www.baseballamerica.com/stories/losi...

I think the Phillies are the best equipped NL team to beat the Dodgers actually, but only in a short series (so, in a scenario where the Dodgers don’t get a bye). The Cubs are the team with the offense to do it, but their rotation isn’t good enough + they also aren’t likely to get a bye

Alan Cole@alan-cole.bsky.social · 2w ago

They could lose! Baseball is weird and randomness happens! But I wouldn't say any Dodger problem is a bigger problem than the Brewers being dead last in home runs, the Cubs having Matthew Boyd as the ace or even the Braves being 26th in team wRC+ since June 1st.

I have had the continuous belief that Vanderbilt’s 2022 baseball team was their best of the last half decade if only they could’ve had one more average bat to not have to play the two worst hitters in the SEC every day and now I’m imagining one of their spots taken by Josh Baez and…yeah

The Ohtani roster spot thing is a different debate in this specific case too because *for the half a season he pitched* he allowed for the team to carry one extra pitcher. BUT for the rest of the time he has not pitched, he is the single most positionally inflexible player in baseball, which…

Sky Kalkman@skykalkman.bsky.social · 2w ago

Could also give Ohtani maybe 1/4 win for the additional roster spot he opens up. And of course there's a lot of choice of which models you use and the uncertainty in it all.

Batting lines for the #VandyBoys in the Cape Cod League (regular season + playoffs combined): Ryker Waite: .328/.451/.517, 5 2B, 2 HR, 14% BB%, 9.9% K% Tommy Goodin: .311/.376/.513, 10 2B, 1 3B, 6 HR, 7.3% BB%, 21.2% K% Rustan Rigdon: .236/.323/.273, 4 2B, 1 3B, 9.9% BB%, 16.7% K%

Aiden Stillman has really struggled with walks in the CCBL this summer, pitching mostly as a starter, but in the playoffs he’s been used out of the bullpen and been better. Today he pitched 3 innings and walked only 1, with 4 Ks

Jared Curtis has been billed as the high-ceiling option for Vanderbilt while Blaze Berlowitz is said to have the higher floor. But does Berlowitz actually have the higher floor? I’m not convinced in my latest QB competition takeaways: www.tennessean.com/story/sports...

Vanderbilt football QB competition update, how Jared Curtis, Blaze Berlowitz look

Here's how Jared Curtis and Blaze Berlowitz have looked in the first week of Vanderbilt football preseason practices.

tennessean.com