Aron Lund
@aronlund.bsky.social
Syria, Middle East politics, and Mediterranean security at the Swedish Defence Research Agency (FOI). Fellow at Century International, the Centre for Syrian Studies, and the Swedish Institute of International Affairs (UI). Occasional freelance writer.
According to @axios.com and @barakravid.bsky.social, the anticipated Hormuz deal will mostly just reset the MoU’s 60-day clock after clarifying that Iran controls the strait while it ticks. Poor results for Trump’s escalation, which explicitly sought an Iran-free route. www.axios.com/2026/08/05/u...
Brig. Gen. Mohammed al-Jasem, alias Abu Amsha, has apparently been promoted to a deputy corps commander position, away from his old brigade/rebel unit. Looks like a soft purge of a notoriously problematic figure—may explain the snap military mobilization. www.syria.tv/%D8%AA%D8%B9...
تعيين العميد محمد الجاسم نائبا لقائد فيلق المنطقة الوسطى في وزارة الدفاع السورية
يشغل الجاسم منصب قائد الفرقة 62 العاملة في محافظة حماة، وهو أحد أبرز قادة الفصائل العسكرية التي تشكلت خلال سنوات الثورة السورية
syria.tv
Sources to @cnn.com: the United States hasn’t spent a third of its total supply of THAAD interceptors against Iran, as previously reported—it’s closer to four fifths. @halbritz.bsky.social, @jimsciutto.bsky.social, and Zachary Cohen: edition.cnn.com/2026/08/04/p...
Nearly 80% of interceptors for a key missile defense system depleted, sources say | CNN Politics
The US military has exhausted nearly 80% of its interceptors for a key missile defense system as senior US military commanders are warning that the Pentagon’s munitions stockpile is “dangerously low,”...
edition.cnn.com
“According to the senior Iranian official, Iran was seeking fees of between 5% and 7% of the price of cargoes from ships using the strait. Oman was discussing smaller fees of around 3%, while Washington wants no fees at all.” @phreuters.bsky.social & Timour Azhari: www.reuters.com/world/middle...
Proposed Hormuz deal would give Iran control of inbound traffic, sources say
A proposed deal between Iran and Oman would give Tehran control over ships entering the Gulf through the Strait of Hormuz, a senior Iranian source and two regional officials told Reuters, in one of th...
reuters.com
Unexpected and unexplained mobilization of Syria’s armed forces, allegedly linked to some sort of situation with pro-Iran groups on the Iraqi border. @enabbaladi.bsky.social: www.enabbaladi.net/819636/
الجيش السوري يستنفر قواته ويدعو للالتحاق بالثكنات
طلبت وزارة الدفاع السورية من عناصرها رفع الجاهزية والاستنفار والالتحاق بالثكنات وقطع الإجازات، وفق خمسة مصادر متقاطعة من الجيش لعنب بلدي. وعممت الوزارة الطلب على مجموعات التنسيق العسكرية، دون أن تبين...
enabbaladi.net
This is the Guinness Book of World Records-length shit sandwich that we must now all eat together
Aron Lund@aronlund.bsky.social · 9h agoTrump can no longer get a good deal with Iran, but a bad deal would be criticized by his own allies and could lead him to escalate again, only to find himself unable to get a good deal, and on it goes. @hauslohner.bsky.social, A. England, B. Ghaffari, @financialtimes.com: www.ft.com/content/87b0...
Trump can no longer get a good deal with Iran, but a bad deal would be criticized by his own allies and could lead him to escalate again, only to find himself unable to get a good deal, and on it goes. @hauslohner.bsky.social, A. England, B. Ghaffari, @financialtimes.com: www.ft.com/content/87b0...
Donald Trump trapped between escalation and an Iran deal on Tehran’s terms
US president faces few good options to exit a war he once said would end swiftly with the Islamic republic’s surrender
ft.com
Horrible conditions in Afghanistan as sanctions bite, humanitarian aid is cut, and trade disruptions hit. UN says 59% of food aid has been withdrawn since 2022, despite greatly increased needs. Giada Zampano, @apnews.com: apnews.com/article/wfp-...
Afghanistan's child deaths are rising as food distributions face cuts, UN says
Child malnutrition has reached critical levels in a third of Afghanistan’s provinces, according to the U.N. World Food Program.
apnews.com
Handy roundup of news on an anticipated Iran-Oman deal over Hormuz, by Rosaleen Carrol and Adam Lucente. @almonitor.bsky.social www.al-monitor.com/originals/20...
The emerging Iran-Oman Hormuz deal: What's at stake?
A framework that gives Tehran a formal role in determining how ships move through the waterway could strengthen its hand in future negotiations with the US.
al-monitor.com
Handy roundup of news on an anticipated Iran-Oman deal over Hormuz, by Rosaleen Carrol and Adam Lucente. @almonitor.bsky.social www.al-monitor.com/originals/20...
The emerging Iran-Oman Hormuz deal: What's at stake?
A framework that gives Tehran a formal role in determining how ships move through the waterway could strengthen its hand in future negotiations with the US.
al-monitor.com
About those bases and what keeps them in place despite Assad’s removal, see: sceeus.se/en/publicati...
Five Wars and a Funeral: How the conflicts in Ukraine, Palestine, Lebanon, Syria, and Iran broke Russia’s Middle East Policy - Sceeus
SCEEUS Guest Report | Five Wars and a Funeral | By Aron Lund
sceeus.se
Aron Lund@aronlund.bsky.social · yesterdayIf Syria’s lingering economic and political dependence on Russia—in the form of oil and wheat import, UN votes vs. Israeli encroachment, system repairs and technology, etc.—were to diminish, Russia would presumably find it harder to retain the Hmeymim and Tartous bases.
If Syria’s lingering economic and political dependence on Russia—in the form of oil and wheat import, UN votes vs. Israeli encroachment, system repairs and technology, etc.—were to diminish, Russia would presumably find it harder to retain the Hmeymim and Tartous bases.
Aron Lund@aronlund.bsky.social · yesterdayThe United States may use Syria’s removal from the terrorism sponsor sanctions list to press for reduced oil import from Russia. Interesting, but if so Syria will need an economically viable alternative. Maya Gebeily, Feras Dalatey, and Gram Slattery – @reuters.com: www.reuters.com/business/ene...
The United States may use Syria’s removal from the terrorism sponsor sanctions list to press for reduced oil import from Russia. Interesting, but if so Syria will need an economically viable alternative. Maya Gebeily, Feras Dalatey, and Gram Slattery – @reuters.com: www.reuters.com/business/ene...
EXCLUSIVE: Syria tells US it is willing to drastically drop Russian oil imports, sources say
Damascus has agreed to drastically reduce imports of Russian oil as part of its ongoing discussions with the United States on lifting the last major sanctions designation on Syria, three sources fami...
reuters.com
As Einstein said, “I know not with what weapons World War III will be fought, because all the missiles were fired at Iran in 2026.”
Aron Lund@aronlund.bsky.social · yesterdayIran has now gobbled up nearly all U.S. ATACMS and PrSM ballistic missiles, plus half of Tomahawk cruise missiles and a very considerable share of the THAAD and Patriot interceptors, sources tell @reuters.com’s Erin Banco, Jonathan Landay, and Michael Stone. www.reuters.com/world/us-has...
Iran has now gobbled up nearly all U.S. ATACMS and PrSM ballistic missiles, plus half of Tomahawk cruise missiles and a very considerable share of the THAAD and Patriot interceptors, sources tell @reuters.com’s Erin Banco, Jonathan Landay, and Michael Stone. www.reuters.com/world/us-has...
EXCLUSIVE: US has used 'virtually all' of its long-range precision missiles during Iran war, sources say
The U.S. Army has used up much of its stockpile of highly accurate long-range missiles during its five-month war with Iran, according to three people familiar with the data, raising concerns about the...
reuters.com
Following Shaibani’s remarks about maybe talking to Hezbollah, Naim Qasem says there’s no reason why Hezbollah wouldn’t have a public meeting with Syria’s new leaders. I suppose there’s is a reason he said “public.” mdn.tv/9JEd/
Svenska läsare som intresserar sig för FAE:s roll i Afrika – i Sudan, Somaliland och andra konflikter, men också som gigantisk investerare, större än USA och Kina – skulle för övrigt kunna ta en titt på det här FOI-memot: bsky.app/profile/aron...
Aron Lund@aronlund.bsky.social · yesterdayThe @financialtimes.com is doing a five part series on the United Arab Emirates—two articles published so far, both excellent. • UAE and Iran, by Andrew England and Nicolas Parasie: www.ft.com/content/6d2d... • UAE and Africa, by William Wallis and Peter Andringa: www.ft.com/content/a4c6...
The @financialtimes.com is doing a five part series on the United Arab Emirates—two articles published so far, both excellent. • UAE and Iran, by Andrew England and Nicolas Parasie: www.ft.com/content/6d2d... • UAE and Africa, by William Wallis and Peter Andringa: www.ft.com/content/a4c6...
The UAE’s bold gambit on Iran
It has quietly rebuilt economic and diplomatic ties while also deepening defence links to Israel and the US
ft.com
Mot bakgrund av det stigande allmänna intresset för marockansk utrikespolitik finns det kanske anledning att påminna om denna sommarfärska FOI-rapport om Västsaharafrågan, Marocko och Algeriet.
Aron Lund@aronlund.bsky.social · 2mo agoNy FOI-rapport om en av världens mest segdragna konflikter, det halvsekelgamla kriget mellan Marocko och Polisariogerillan i Västsahara. Länge en helt stillastående konflikt, nu återigen aktivt krig – med Donald Trump i det diplomatiska förarsätet. @foiresearch.bsky.social foi.se/rapporter/ra...
“Last year’s ceasefire allowed Israeli forces to retain control of 53% of Gaza initially, before eventually withdrawing. But Israel has instead expanded its control. Defence Minister Israel Katz confirmed on Sunday that the Israeli-held area had reached 60% to 70%” www.reuters.com/world/middle...
After deadly day, Gazans say Trump's touting of plan jars with grim reality
Palestinians in Gaza said on Monday that U.S. President Donald Trump's touting of a deal aimed at disarming Hamas and ending the war was out of touch with their worsening reality, after Israel killed...
reuters.com
Israeli forces have captured dozens of Syrians in areas occupied since 2024, with 46 people currently detained, reports al-Sharq al-Awsat’s Mowaffaq Mohammed. aawsat.com/%D8%A7%D9%84...
46 معتقلاً سورياً في السجون الإسرائيلية منذ سقوط نظام الأسد
بعد إفراج إسرائيل عن 4 معتقلين سوريين على دفعتين في يوليو (تموز) المنصرم، يتبقى 46 معتقلاً سورياً في سجون الاحتلال احتجز أغلبيتهم خلال عمليات توغل للجيش.
aawsat.com
Useful detail on the direction of the Hormuz talks, including from Iranian public statements. @patrickwintour.bsky.social @theguardian.com www.theguardian.com/world/2026/a...
Iran in talks with Oman over shipping but US negotiations on hold, says Tehran
Iran discussing creation of temporary route through strait of Hormuz with its neighbour, says spokesperson
theguardian.com
Historically informed piece on the silly notion that Ceuta is occupied Moroccan land or an unjustly Spanish-ruled colonial possession, and how these claims spread among pro-Israel groups as a reaction to Spain’s pro-Palestine advocacy. @ajaltamimi.bsky.social www.aymennaltamimi.com/p/occupied-c...
'Occupied' Ceuta?
Spain's exclave in North Africa and 'pro-Israel' discourse
aymennaltamimi.com
Syrian Pres. Sharaa talks about being part of a refugee family from the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights (and about having a Nasserist dad). x.com/alekhbariahs...
الإخبارية السورية (@AlekhbariahSY) on X
"خطاب الجولان والحنين إلى الأرض كان حديثاً يومياً".. السيد الرئيس أحمد الشرع يستحضر ذكريات الحديث عن الجولان وأمل العودة إليه #الإخبارية_السورية
x.com
This is, to my knowledge, the first-ever statement by a Syrian president in Kurdish. It’s a symbolic gesture, of course, but a positive one—and long overdue. x.com/ah_alsharaa/...
Who runs Iran? A bunch of people, says Ali Alfoneh. @alfoneh.bsky.social @gulfstatesinst.bsky.social agsi.org/analysis/the...
The Islamic Republic’s Collective Leadership - AGSI
While there is historical precedent for collective leadership in Iran, today’s leadership includes representatives of the IRGC and regular military – a reflection of the IRGC’s expanding role and the ...
agsi.org
Iran’s plan: not so much to win as to be a horrific pain in the ass. Samia Nakhoul, @reuters.com: www.reuters.com/world/middle...
It’s not just missiles running short: the U.S. Navy needs more destroyers in the Mediterranean if it is going to be serving as Israel’s missile defense indefinitely. @danlamothe.bsky.social @washingtonpost.com www.washingtonpost.com/national-sec...
U.S. general warns Pentagon he lacks sufficient forces to protect Israel
A shortage of Navy destroyers, used to defend against Iranian ballistic missile attacks, will force the head of U.S. European Command to prioritize the U.S. homeland instead, officials said.
washingtonpost.com
Trump: Iran asked us not to terror-crush them, but it was close.
