Semper Augustus' 2025 letter: 184 pages, every number by hand. Returned 41% at 12x earnings vs S&P at 26x. AI capex = fiber optic 2.0. Tech works. Investors get wiped. $1T/yr in buybacks yet more shares outstanding than 2000. Just covers insider dilution. Free to read. Data work is elite.

BYD delivered 4.55M vehicles in 2025 — 2.8x Tesla's 1.64M. Trading at 18-22x earnings (15-16x net of cash). Controls 75% of components in-house. Vertical integration creates cost advantages competitors can't replicate. Full analysis on Substack.

CATL vs BYD: 55% of global EV batteries. CATL: 37.9% share, 24.4% gross margin, RMB 300B+ cash. BYD: 17.2% share, 4.27M NEVs sold in 2024. Both targeting solid-state batteries by 2027. Different strategies. Same massive TAM.

Chinese automakers develop new models in 18 months. Western firms take 5+ years. BYD sold 4.25M vehicles in 2024 (+41%), surpassing Tesla globally. 150+ brands competing in China created battle-hardened innovators now going global.

Capital One is becoming a payments infrastructure giant. $250B+ combined card portfolio post-Discover acquisition. $1.2B annual synergies. 100% cloud-native. Q4 revenue: $15.6B (+53% YoY). This isn't a credit card company anymore.

Charter added 44K video subscribers in Q4 2025 — after losing 123K in Q4 2024. Mobile lines surged 19% to 12M subs. Cox acquisition makes them the largest US cable operator. Video isn't dying. Bundling broadband + mobile + video is the winning formula.

Our offshore drilling thesis is playing out. Transocean acquiring Valaris — $17B combined EV, $10B backlog. Day rates surged from $300K to $450-500K. Aging fleet + no newbuilds = supply squeeze through 2027. We called this months ago.

Intel's $11.1B government bet. 18A node is on par with TSMC N2. But TSMC has 15+ customers vs Intel's handful. Can manufacturing excellence convert to customer wins before losses exhaust patience? Deep dive on our Substack.

Tencent generates $28B annually in gaming alone — more than EA, Nintendo, and Take-Two combined. WeChat: 1.4B MAUs. Owns Riot Games, Epic Games, Supercell. Buying back HK$80B in stock while growing 14% YoY. Growth + capital discipline. The kind of combo that compounds for decades.

European telecom: generational arbitrage? The sector trades at 5-7x EBITDA vs 13x+ for US peers. Liberty Global trades at ~$11 with management's sum-of-parts at $25+. That's a 55-60% NAV discount. Catalyst: EU Digital Networks Act + relaxed merger rules are finally unlocking consolidation.

California Resources Corp trades at 5x EBITDA with $600-700M annual free cash flow. PV-10 of reserves ($8.9B) is nearly 2x the market cap. Buybacks running at 12-14% annually. Low decline rates (8-13% vs 30-50% for shale). This is the Belridge Oil trade of our generation.

We publish free deep-dive analysis on public equities: • DCF valuations with full model • Forensic accounting screens • Business quality scorecards Built by AI. Verified by humans. No paywalls. Follow along — first full analysis dropping this week.

Buffett's Berkshire holds $325B in cash. That's not fear. That's discipline. When the greatest investor in history can't find attractive prices, it tells you something about the current market. Patience is a competitive advantage.

3 red flags in any company's financials: 1. Revenue growing but operating cash flow declining — potential earnings manipulation 2. Days Sales Outstanding rising faster than revenue — aggressive revenue recognition 3. Stock-based compensation exceeding 10% of revenue — dilution hiding true costs

Traditional research: 1 analyst covers 15-20 stocks. Our approach: AI processes every 10-K, 10-Q, and earnings call for 3,000+ US equities. Every quarter. No coverage gaps. The edge isn't speed — it's completeness.

Apple generates $110B+ in free cash flow annually. That's more than the GDP of 130 countries. Services revenue now 26% of total — higher margins, recurring, and growing 14% YoY. The iPhone company narrative is 5 years outdated.

S&P 500 trades at 21.5x forward earnings. The 20-year average is 16.8x. Either earnings need to grow 28% to justify current prices, or we're pricing in a lot of optimism. Neither outcome is guaranteed. Know what you own and why you own it.

What makes a wonderful business? 1. ROIC consistently above WACC for 10+ years 2. Durable competitive moat with evidence 3. Capital allocation that creates shareholder value 4. Earnings backed by real cash flow Only ~5% of public companies pass all four tests.

We run every stock through 3 forensic screens before analysis: • Beneish M-Score — earnings manipulation • Altman Z-Score — bankruptcy risk • Piotroski F-Score — financial strength If any flag triggers, we dig deeper. Most analysts skip this step entirely.

NVIDIA's data center revenue grew 93% YoY to $35.6B in Q4. But here's what most analysts miss: inference revenue is now outpacing training revenue. The AI capex cycle isn't ending — it's shifting. Full DCF model puts fair value at $152-178 range.

Most quant funds optimize for speed. We optimize for depth. Our AI doesn't predict price — it reads 10-K filings, builds DCF models, and flags forensic red flags. The same work a senior analyst does, but across 3,000+ stocks simultaneously.

Altbridge Capital is now on Bluesky. AI-native investment research — autonomous analysis of public equities. Follow for deep dives on $AAPL $NVDA $MSFT and more.