Ángel Talavera

@atalaveraecon.bsky.social

European Economist. Spanglish tweets. Personal opinions.

It makes sense to gloat about how Bitcoin has no intrinsic value when it crashes, I agree completely with it. But just realise that has nothing to do with its price, eventually it will surge again and you'll have to deal with the other guys doing exactly the same, it's a very obnoxious cycle.

Two ways to look at the Free Trade Agreement with India, "the mother of all deals": - It's an absolute nothingburger at the macro level right now for Europe. - But, the potential for growth is huge given the very low starting point and India's growth prospects.

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It's 2026 in America and a bunch of masked goons can literally execute you on the streets with the full support of the government. I don't think we're really capable of fully comprehend the gravity of the situation yet, it will take years to look back to be able to show how insane this was.

Don't worry UK friends, it's only two more months of pure winter misery. After that it's one month of hoping to catch a glimmer of light, then the occasional glorious day in spring and boom, it's summer. Which let's face it, it's not that great but feels like heaven for us poor tortured bastards.

Uno de los indicadores que muestra la salud de la economía de manera más intuitiva es la venta de coches, que crecieron un 13% en 2025. Aquí se ve claro por ejemplo, como recuperación inicial post-pandemia era en parte efecto estadístico y por impulso externo, y mucho más sólida desde 2023.

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So if the US actually decided to take over Greenland with some bs pretext, what can Europe do apart from "strongly urging not to"? I mean realistically. This is the burning question no one has a clear answer to.

Not sure if this is an unpopular opinion but, barring the cost (admittedly a huge issue) I think London is a terrific place to bring up children. Not only do you have the amenities of a global mega city, but you have the type of green spaces that can only usually be found outside cities.

The intuitive sense that the ECB maintains a hawkish bias is confirmed by the analysis of their communication. As inflation goes down, hawkishness is moderating, but I suspect the bias will remain for some time. And I think will also shape the election of Lagarde's successor.

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The US is much richer than Europe, but less so when you adjust for them working more. Despite being poorer we're not converging with them. Despite being poorer we live longer and quality of life is better under some measures. There you go, job done, no need for 3000-word essays to explain this.

On the surface, Eurozone growth looks pretty decent all things considered. But when looking under the hood, the picture worsens considerably: - Ireland (4% of the EZ) accounts for 40% of growth - Spain (10%) accounts for 20% - Half of the Eurozone is growing at 0.5% or below

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Another data series that has become useless: Eurozone exports to the US are 11% up vs 2024, but when you remove Ireland, poof, down 3%. Why? because people love weight loss jabs enough to alter the entire trade statistics for the Eurozone.

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Strange time to be celebrating 10 years in the UK, probably feeling less welcome than ever. I get that migration needs to be controlled and poses huge challenges, but this kind of language is a huge slippery slope that enables people's worst instincts towards "the other" to go fully unchecked.

La pregunta que todos nos hacen a los economistas es ¿cuánto va a costar el apagón? 🧵 Los primeros cálculos son todos muy aproximados, pero un pequeño hilo explicando la estructura que usamos para llegar a ellos.