Tessera

Aurora Forecast Bot from NOAA (UNOFFICIAL)

@aurora.nws-bot.us

A bot sharing aurora forecast details from the NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center. This account is unmonitored. Contact @wandrme.paxex.aero if needed.

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Aurora Forecast Bot from NOAA (UNOFFICIAL)@aurora.nws-bot.us · yesterday

Aurora Forecast Update for 2026-08-04T13:04:01Z EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected Extension to Serial Number: 5397 Valid From: 2026 Aug 02 1237 UTC Now Valid Until: 2026 Aug 04 1500 UTC Warning Condition: Persistence Additional Details Here.

Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 5398
Issue Time: 2026 Aug 04 0810 UTC

EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 5397
Valid From: 2026 Aug 02 1237 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2026 Aug 04 1500 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2026 Aug 04 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Aug 04-Aug 06 2026 is 4.00 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Aug 04-Aug 06 2026

Aug 04 Aug 05 Aug 06
00-03UT 4.00 1.33 1.33
03-06UT 3.00 1.67 1.67
06-09UT 3.00 1.67 1.67
09-12UT 2.33 1.67 1.33
12-15UT 3.67 1.33 1.33
15-18UT 2.33 1.33 1.33
18-21UT 2.67 1.00 1.33
21-00UT 2.67 1.67 1.67

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Aug 04-Aug 06 2026

Aug 04 Aug 05 Aug 06
S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Aug 04-Aug 06 2026

Aug 04 Aug 05 Aug 06
R1-R2 20% 20% 20%
R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%

Rationale: A slight chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) activity will
persist through 06 Aug.

Map from NOAA titled showing North America and the North Pole with a color gradient overlay of aurora likelihood.

Aurora Forecast Bot from NOAA (UNOFFICIAL)@aurora.nws-bot.us · 2d ago

Aurora Forecast Update for 2026-08-04T01:04:05Z EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected Extension to Serial Number: 5395 Valid From: 2026 Aug 02 1237 UTC Now Valid Until: 2026 Aug 04 0000 UTC Warning Condition: Persistence Additional Details Here.

Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 5396
Issue Time: 2026 Aug 03 2003 UTC

EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 5395
Valid From: 2026 Aug 02 1237 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2026 Aug 04 0000 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2026 Aug 04 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Aug 04-Aug 06 2026 is 4.00 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Aug 04-Aug 06 2026

Aug 04 Aug 05 Aug 06
00-03UT 4.00 1.33 1.33
03-06UT 3.33 1.67 1.67
06-09UT 3.00 1.67 1.67
09-12UT 2.00 1.67 1.33
12-15UT 1.33 1.33 1.33
15-18UT 2.00 1.33 1.33
18-21UT 2.33 1.00 1.33
21-00UT 2.00 1.67 1.67

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.
Unsettled to active periods are expected early on 04 Aug due to
persistent CME activity.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Aug 04-Aug 06 2026

Aug 04 Aug 05 Aug 06
S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Aug 04-Aug 06 2026

Aug 04 Aug 05 Aug 06
R1-R2 20% 20% 20%
R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%

Rationale: Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for
M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flares over 04-06 Aug primarily due to
the potential of Regions 4498 and 4502.

Aurora Forecast Bot from NOAA (UNOFFICIAL)@aurora.nws-bot.us · 2d ago

Aurora Forecast Update for 2026-08-04T01:04:01Z EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected Extension to Serial Number: 5396 Valid From: 2026 Aug 02 1237 UTC Now Valid Until: 2026 Aug 04 0900 UTC Warning Condition: Persistence Additional Details Here.

Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 5397
Issue Time: 2026 Aug 03 2355 UTC

EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 5396
Valid From: 2026 Aug 02 1237 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2026 Aug 04 0900 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

Aurora Forecast Bot from NOAA (UNOFFICIAL)@aurora.nws-bot.us · 2d ago

Aurora Forecast Update for 2026-08-03T07:04:05Z EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected Extension to Serial Number: 5394 Valid From: 2026 Aug 02 1237 UTC Now Valid Until: 2026 Aug 03 2100 UTC Warning Condition: Persistence Additional Details Here.

Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 5395
Issue Time: 2026 Aug 03 0253 UTC

EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 5394
Valid From: 2026 Aug 02 1237 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2026 Aug 03 2100 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2026 Aug 03 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 6 (NOAA Scale
G2).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Aug 03-Aug 05 2026 is 4.67 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Aug 03-Aug 05 2026

Aug 03 Aug 04 Aug 05
00-03UT 4.00 3.00 1.33
03-06UT 4.67 (G1) 3.33 1.67
06-09UT 4.00 3.00 1.67
09-12UT 4.00 2.33 1.67
12-15UT 3.00 2.00 1.33
15-18UT 3.00 2.00 1.33
18-21UT 3.00 1.67 1.00
21-00UT 2.67 1.33 1.67

Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are expected on 03 Aug as the
CME ongoing effects persist. No G1 or greater geomagnetic storms are
expected on 04-05 Aug, as no further transient or recurrent solar wind
significant features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Aug 03-Aug 05 2026

Aug 03 Aug 04 Aug 05
S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Aug 03-Aug 05 2026

Aug 03 Aug 04 Aug 05
R1-R2 20% 20% 20%
R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%

Rationale: There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts
on 03-05 Aug due to the flare potential of the active regions currently
located on the visible solar disk.

Aurora Forecast Bot from NOAA (UNOFFICIAL)@aurora.nws-bot.us · 2d ago

Aurora Forecast Update for 2026-08-03T07:04:02Z EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected Extension to Serial Number: 2254 Valid From: 2026 Aug 02 1427 UTC Now Valid Until: 2026 Aug 03 1500 UTC Warning Condition: Persistence Additional Details Here.

Space Weather Message Code: WARK05
Serial Number: 2255
Issue Time: 2026 Aug 03 0253 UTC

EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 2254
Valid From: 2026 Aug 02 1427 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2026 Aug 03 1500 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence

NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

Aurora Forecast Bot from NOAA (UNOFFICIAL)@aurora.nws-bot.us · 3d ago

Aurora Forecast Update for 2026-08-02T19:04:18Z ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 Threshold Reached: 2026 Aug 02 1342 UTC Synoptic Period: 1200-1500 Active Warning: YES Comment: Additional Details Here.

Space Weather Message Code: ALTK04
Serial Number: 2678
Issue Time: 2026 Aug 02 1342 UTC

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Threshold Reached: 2026 Aug 02 1342 UTC
Synoptic Period: 1200-1500
Active Warning: YES
Comment:

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2026 Aug 02 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 1 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Aug 02-Aug 04 2026 is 5.67 (NOAA Scale
G2).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Aug 02-Aug 04 2026

Aug 02 Aug 03 Aug 04
00-03UT 1.00 3.67 1.67
03-06UT 1.00 4.33 1.67
06-09UT 1.00 3.00 1.33
09-12UT 1.00 4.00 1.33
12-15UT 4.33 3.00 1.33
15-18UT 5.67 (G2) 2.00 1.33
18-21UT 3.33 2.00 1.67
21-00UT 4.00 1.33 1.33

Rationale: G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storms are likely on 02
Aug due to the influence of a CME that left the Sun on 30 Jul.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Aug 02-Aug 04 2026

Aug 02 Aug 03 Aug 04
S1 or greater 5% 1% 1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Aug 02-Aug 04 2026

Aug 02 Aug 03 Aug 04
R1-R2 25% 25% 25%
R3 or greater 5% 5% 5%

Rationale: There remains a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio
blackouts over 02-04 Aug due to the flare potential of multiple active
regions on the visible disk.

Aurora Forecast Bot from NOAA (UNOFFICIAL)@aurora.nws-bot.us · 3d ago

Aurora Forecast Update for 2026-08-02T19:04:15Z WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected Valid From: 2026 Aug 02 1427 UTC Valid To: 2026 Aug 02 2359 UTC Warning Conditions: Onset Noaa Scale: G1 - Minor Comment: Additional Details Here.

Space Weather Message Code: WARK05
Serial Number: 2253
Issue Time: 2026 Aug 02 1428 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Valid From: 2026 Aug 02 1427 UTC
Valid To: 2026 Aug 02 2359 UTC
Warning Conditions: Onset
Noaa Scale: G1 - Minor
Comment:

NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

Aurora Forecast Bot from NOAA (UNOFFICIAL)@aurora.nws-bot.us · 3d ago

Aurora Forecast Update for 2026-08-02T19:04:13Z ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 5 Threshold Reached: 2026 Aug 02 1712 UTC Synoptic Period: 1500-1800 Active Warning: YES Noaa Scale: G1 - Minor Comment: Additional Details Here.

Space Weather Message Code: ALTK05
Serial Number: 2042
Issue Time: 2026 Aug 02 1712 UTC

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Threshold Reached: 2026 Aug 02 1712 UTC
Synoptic Period: 1500-1800
Active Warning: YES
Noaa Scale: G1 - Minor
Comment:

NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

Aurora Forecast Bot from NOAA (UNOFFICIAL)@aurora.nws-bot.us · 3d ago

Aurora Forecast Update for 2026-08-02T19:04:10Z EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected Extension to Serial Number: 2253 Valid From: 2026 Aug 02 1427 UTC Now Valid Until: 2026 Aug 03 0300 UTC Warning Condition: Persistence This extends previous warning. Additional Details Here.

Space Weather Message Code: WARK05
Serial Number: 2254
Issue Time: 2026 Aug 02 1747 UTC

EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 2253
Valid From: 2026 Aug 02 1427 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2026 Aug 03 0300 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence
This extends previous warning.

NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

Aurora Forecast Bot from NOAA (UNOFFICIAL)@aurora.nws-bot.us · 3d ago

Aurora Forecast Update for 2026-08-02T19:04:07Z EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected Extension to Serial Number: 5393 Valid From: 2026 Aug 02 1237 UTC Now Valid Until: 2026 Aug 03 1200 UTC Warning Condition: Persistence This extends the previous warning. Additional Details Here.

Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 5394
Issue Time: 2026 Aug 02 1748 UTC

EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 5393
Valid From: 2026 Aug 02 1237 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2026 Aug 03 1200 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence
This extends the previous warning.

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

Aurora Forecast Bot from NOAA (UNOFFICIAL)@aurora.nws-bot.us · 3d ago

Aurora Forecast Update for 2026-08-02T19:04:05Z WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 6 expected Valid From: 2026 Aug 02 1745 UTC Valid To: 2026 Aug 02 2359 UTC Warning Conditions: Onset Noaa Scale: G2 - Moderate Comment: Additional Details Here.

Space Weather Message Code: WARK06
Serial Number: 668
Issue Time: 2026 Aug 02 1746 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 6 expected
Valid From: 2026 Aug 02 1745 UTC
Valid To: 2026 Aug 02 2359 UTC
Warning Conditions: Onset
Noaa Scale: G2 - Moderate
Comment:

NOAA Scale: G2 - Moderate

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms.
Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state.

Aurora Forecast Bot from NOAA (UNOFFICIAL)@aurora.nws-bot.us · 3d ago

Aurora Forecast Update for 2026-08-02T19:04:01Z ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 6 Threshold Reached: 2026 Aug 02 1759 UTC Synoptic Period: 1500-1800 Active Warning: YES Noaa Scale: G2 - Moderate Comment: Additional Details Here.

Space Weather Message Code: ALTK06
Serial Number: 724
Issue Time: 2026 Aug 02 1800 UTC

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 6
Threshold Reached: 2026 Aug 02 1759 UTC
Synoptic Period: 1500-1800
Active Warning: YES
Noaa Scale: G2 - Moderate
Comment:

NOAA Scale: G2 - Moderate

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms.
Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state.

Aurora Forecast Bot from NOAA (UNOFFICIAL)@aurora.nws-bot.us · 3d ago

Aurora Forecast Update for 2026-08-02T13:04:01Z WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected Valid From: 2026 Aug 02 1237 UTC Valid To: 2026 Aug 03 0300 UTC Warning Conditions: Onset Comment: Additional Details Here.

Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 5393
Issue Time: 2026 Aug 02 1238 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From: 2026 Aug 02 1237 UTC
Valid To: 2026 Aug 03 0300 UTC
Warning Conditions: Onset
Comment:

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

Aurora Forecast Bot from NOAA (UNOFFICIAL)@aurora.nws-bot.us · 2w ago

Aurora Forecast Update for 2026-07-24T13:04:01Z EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected Extension to Serial Number: 5391 Valid From: 2026 Jul 23 1432 UTC Now Valid Until: 2026 Jul 24 1500 UTC Warning Condition: Persistence Additional Details Here.

Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 5392
Issue Time: 2026 Jul 24 0856 UTC

EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 5391
Valid From: 2026 Jul 23 1432 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2026 Jul 24 1500 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2026 Jul 24 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jul 24-Jul 26 2026 is 4.67 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Jul 24-Jul 26 2026

Jul 24 Jul 25 Jul 26
00-03UT 4.00 2.67 2.00
03-06UT 2.67 2.33 1.67
06-09UT 1.67 2.00 1.33
09-12UT 1.67 1.33 1.00
12-15UT 2.33 1.33 1.33
15-18UT 2.67 1.67 1.33
18-21UT 3.67 2.00 1.33
21-00UT 4.67 (G1) 2.33 1.67

Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic activity is expected on 24 July due to
CH HSS influences and possible CME impacts.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jul 24-Jul 26 2026

Jul 24 Jul 25 Jul 26
S1 or greater 5% 5% 5%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Jul 24-Jul 26 2026

Jul 24 Jul 25 Jul 26
R1-R2 45% 45% 45%
R3 or greater 5% 5% 5%

Rationale: Solar activity is expected to be at low levels with a high
chance for M-class flares (45%) on 24-26 due to the flare potential of
Regions 4493 and 4494.

Aurora Forecast Bot from NOAA (UNOFFICIAL)@aurora.nws-bot.us · 2w ago

Aurora Forecast Update for 2026-07-24T01:04:26Z EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected Extension to Serial Number: 5388 Valid From: 2026 Jul 21 0910 UTC Now Valid Until: 2026 Jul 22 0600 UTC Warning Condition: Persistence Additional Details Here.

Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 5389
Issue Time: 2026 Jul 21 1709 UTC

EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 5388
Valid From: 2026 Jul 21 0910 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2026 Jul 22 0600 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2026 Jul 24 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jul 24-Jul 26 2026 is 5.33 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Jul 24-Jul 26 2026

Jul 24 Jul 25 Jul 26
00-03UT 5.00 (G1) 2.67 2.00
03-06UT 5.00 (G1) 2.33 1.67
06-09UT 4.33 2.00 1.33
09-12UT 3.33 1.33 1.00
12-15UT 2.33 1.33 1.33
15-18UT 2.33 1.67 1.33
18-21UT 3.00 2.00 1.33
21-00UT 4.67 (G1) 2.33 1.67

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jul 24-Jul 26 2026

Jul 24 Jul 25 Jul 26
S1 or greater 5% 5% 5%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Jul 24-Jul 26 2026

Jul 24 Jul 25 Jul 26
R1-R2 55% 45% 45%
R3 or greater 10% 5% 5%

Rationale: Solar activity is expected to be low with further M-class
flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) likely on 24-26 Jul primarily due to the
flare potential of AR 4493.

Aurora Forecast Bot from NOAA (UNOFFICIAL)@aurora.nws-bot.us · 2w ago

Aurora Forecast Update for 2026-07-24T01:04:23Z WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected Valid From: 2026 Jul 22 1454 UTC Valid To: 2026 Jul 22 2359 UTC Warning Conditions: Onset Comment: Additional Details Here.

Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 5390
Issue Time: 2026 Jul 22 1456 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From: 2026 Jul 22 1454 UTC
Valid To: 2026 Jul 22 2359 UTC
Warning Conditions: Onset
Comment:

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

Aurora Forecast Bot from NOAA (UNOFFICIAL)@aurora.nws-bot.us · 2w ago

Aurora Forecast Update for 2026-07-24T01:04:21Z WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected Valid From: 2026 Jul 23 1432 UTC Valid To: 2026 Jul 24 0900 UTC Warning Conditions: Onset Comment: Additional Details Here.

Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 5391
Issue Time: 2026 Jul 23 1435 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From: 2026 Jul 23 1432 UTC
Valid To: 2026 Jul 24 0900 UTC
Warning Conditions: Onset
Comment:

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

Aurora Forecast Bot from NOAA (UNOFFICIAL)@aurora.nws-bot.us · 2w ago

Aurora Forecast Update for 2026-07-24T01:04:18Z ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 Threshold Reached: 2026 Jul 23 1547 UTC Synoptic Period: 1500-1800 Active Warning: YES Comment: Additional Details Here.

Space Weather Message Code: ALTK04
Serial Number: 2677
Issue Time: 2026 Jul 23 1559 UTC

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Threshold Reached: 2026 Jul 23 1547 UTC
Synoptic Period: 1500-1800
Active Warning: YES
Comment:

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

Aurora Forecast Bot from NOAA (UNOFFICIAL)@aurora.nws-bot.us · 2w ago

Aurora Forecast Update for 2026-07-24T01:04:15Z WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected Valid From: 2026 Jul 23 1619 UTC Valid To: 2026 Jul 23 2359 UTC Warning Conditions: Onset Noaa Scale: G1 - Minor Comment: Additional Details Here.

Space Weather Message Code: WARK05
Serial Number: 2251
Issue Time: 2026 Jul 23 1620 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Valid From: 2026 Jul 23 1619 UTC
Valid To: 2026 Jul 23 2359 UTC
Warning Conditions: Onset
Noaa Scale: G1 - Minor
Comment:

NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

Aurora Forecast Bot from NOAA (UNOFFICIAL)@aurora.nws-bot.us · 2w ago

Aurora Forecast Update for 2026-07-24T01:04:12Z ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 5 Threshold Reached: 2026 Jul 23 1621 UTC Synoptic Period: 1500-1800 Active Warning: YES Noaa Scale: G1 - Minor Comment: Additional Details Here.

Space Weather Message Code: ALTK05
Serial Number: 2040
Issue Time: 2026 Jul 23 1621 UTC

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Threshold Reached: 2026 Jul 23 1621 UTC
Synoptic Period: 1500-1800
Active Warning: YES
Noaa Scale: G1 - Minor
Comment:

NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

Aurora Forecast Bot from NOAA (UNOFFICIAL)@aurora.nws-bot.us · 2w ago

Aurora Forecast Update for 2026-07-24T01:04:08Z WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 6 expected Valid From: 2026 Jul 23 1639 UTC Valid To: 2026 Jul 23 2359 UTC Warning Conditions: Onset Noaa Scale: G2 - Moderate Comment: Additional Details Here.

Space Weather Message Code: WARK06
Serial Number: 667
Issue Time: 2026 Jul 23 1640 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 6 expected
Valid From: 2026 Jul 23 1639 UTC
Valid To: 2026 Jul 23 2359 UTC
Warning Conditions: Onset
Noaa Scale: G2 - Moderate
Comment:

NOAA Scale: G2 - Moderate

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms.
Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state.

Aurora Forecast Bot from NOAA (UNOFFICIAL)@aurora.nws-bot.us · 2w ago

Aurora Forecast Update for 2026-07-24T01:04:05Z ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 5 Threshold Reached: 2026 Jul 23 2007 UTC Synoptic Period: 1800-2100 Active Warning: YES Noaa Scale: G1 - Minor Comment: Additional Details Here.

Space Weather Message Code: ALTK05
Serial Number: 2041
Issue Time: 2026 Jul 23 2015 UTC

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Threshold Reached: 2026 Jul 23 2007 UTC
Synoptic Period: 1800-2100
Active Warning: YES
Noaa Scale: G1 - Minor
Comment:

NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

Aurora Forecast Bot from NOAA (UNOFFICIAL)@aurora.nws-bot.us · 2w ago

Aurora Forecast Update for 2026-07-24T01:04:02Z EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected Extension to Serial Number: 2251 Valid From: 2026 Jul 23 1619 UTC Now Valid Until: 2026 Jul 24 0600 UTC Warning Condition: Persistence Additional Details Here.

Space Weather Message Code: WARK05
Serial Number: 2252
Issue Time: 2026 Jul 23 2347 UTC

EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 2251
Valid From: 2026 Jul 23 1619 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2026 Jul 24 0600 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence

NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

Aurora Forecast Bot from NOAA (UNOFFICIAL)@aurora.nws-bot.us · 2w ago

Aurora Forecast Update for 2026-07-21T13:04:04Z WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected Valid From: 2026 Jul 21 0910 UTC Valid To: 2026 Jul 21 1800 UTC Warning Conditions: Onset Comment: Additional Details Here.

Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 5388
Issue Time: 2026 Jul 21 0911 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From: 2026 Jul 21 0910 UTC
Valid To: 2026 Jul 21 1800 UTC
Warning Conditions: Onset
Comment:

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2026 Jul 21 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jul 21-Jul 23 2026 is 5.33 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Jul 21-Jul 23 2026

Jul 21 Jul 22 Jul 23
00-03UT 2.33 3.67 4.00
03-06UT 2.67 5.00 (G1) 3.00
06-09UT 3.00 5.33 (G1) 2.67
09-12UT 3.67 4.00 2.00
12-15UT 4.33 3.67 2.00
15-18UT 2.67 3.33 2.67
18-21UT 2.33 3.00 3.00
21-00UT 3.00 4.33 3.00

Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are likely on 22 Jul due to
negative polarity coronal hole high speed stream effects.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jul 21-Jul 23 2026

Jul 21 Jul 22 Jul 23
S1 or greater 5% 5% 5%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Jul 20 2026 2225 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Jul 21-Jul 23 2026

Jul 21 Jul 22 Jul 23
R1-R2 55% 55% 55%
R3 or greater 5% 5% 5%

Rationale: Solar activity is expected to be low with further M-class
flares (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) likely on 21-23 Jul primarily due to the
flare potential of AR 4493.

Aurora Forecast Bot from NOAA (UNOFFICIAL)@aurora.nws-bot.us · 2w ago

Aurora Forecast Update for 2026-07-21T13:04:01Z ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 Threshold Reached: 2026 Jul 21 1159 UTC Synoptic Period: 0900-1200 Active Warning: YES Comment: Additional Details Here.

Space Weather Message Code: ALTK04
Serial Number: 2676
Issue Time: 2026 Jul 21 1201 UTC

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Threshold Reached: 2026 Jul 21 1159 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0900-1200
Active Warning: YES
Comment:

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

Aurora Forecast Bot from NOAA (UNOFFICIAL)@aurora.nws-bot.us · 3w ago

Aurora Forecast Update for 2026-07-15T13:04:01Z EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected Extension to Serial Number: 5386 Valid From: 2026 Jul 15 0143 UTC Now Valid Until: 2026 Jul 15 1500 UTC Warning Condition: Persistence Additional Details Here.

Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 5387
Issue Time: 2026 Jul 15 0853 UTC

EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 5386
Valid From: 2026 Jul 15 0143 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2026 Jul 15 1500 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2026 Jul 15 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jul 15-Jul 17 2026 is 3.67 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Jul 15-Jul 17 2026

Jul 15 Jul 16 Jul 17
00-03UT 3.00 3.00 2.67
03-06UT 3.67 2.33 2.33
06-09UT 3.33 2.00 2.00
09-12UT 3.00 2.33 1.33
12-15UT 2.33 1.33 1.33
15-18UT 1.67 2.00 1.67
18-21UT 2.00 2.00 2.00
21-00UT 2.67 2.00 2.33

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jul 15-Jul 17 2026

Jul 15 Jul 16 Jul 17
S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Jul 15-Jul 17 2026

Jul 15 Jul 16 Jul 17
R1-R2 10% 10% 10%
R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%

Rationale: A slight chance for isolated R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio
blackouts will persist through 17 Jul primarily due to returning active
regions on the eastern limb.

Aurora Forecast Bot from NOAA (UNOFFICIAL)@aurora.nws-bot.us · 3w ago

Aurora Forecast Update for 2026-07-15T07:04:08Z WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected Valid From: 2026 Jul 15 0143 UTC Valid To: 2026 Jul 15 0600 UTC Warning Conditions: Onset Comment: Additional Details Here.

Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 5385
Issue Time: 2026 Jul 15 0144 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From: 2026 Jul 15 0143 UTC
Valid To: 2026 Jul 15 0600 UTC
Warning Conditions: Onset
Comment:

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2026 Jul 15 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jul 15-Jul 17 2026 is 3.67 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Jul 15-Jul 17 2026

Jul 15 Jul 16 Jul 17
00-03UT 3.00 3.00 2.67
03-06UT 3.67 2.33 2.33
06-09UT 3.33 2.00 2.00
09-12UT 2.33 2.33 1.33
12-15UT 1.33 1.33 1.33
15-18UT 1.67 2.00 1.67
18-21UT 2.00 2.00 2.00
21-00UT 2.67 2.00 2.33

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jul 15-Jul 17 2026

Jul 15 Jul 16 Jul 17
S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Jul 15-Jul 17 2026

Jul 15 Jul 16 Jul 17
R1-R2 10% 10% 10%
R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%

Rationale: A slight chance for isolated R1-2 (Minor-Moderate) radio
blackouts will persist through 17 Jul primarily due to returning active
regions on the eastern limb.

Aurora Forecast Bot from NOAA (UNOFFICIAL)@aurora.nws-bot.us · 3w ago

Aurora Forecast Update for 2026-07-15T07:04:05Z EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected Extension to Serial Number: 5385 Valid From: 2026 Jul 15 0143 UTC Now Valid Until: 2026 Jul 15 0900 UTC Warning Condition: Persistence Additional Details Here.

Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 5386
Issue Time: 2026 Jul 15 0554 UTC

EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 5385
Valid From: 2026 Jul 15 0143 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2026 Jul 15 0900 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

Aurora Forecast Bot from NOAA (UNOFFICIAL)@aurora.nws-bot.us · 3w ago

Aurora Forecast Update for 2026-07-15T07:04:01Z ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 Threshold Reached: 2026 Jul 15 0554 UTC Synoptic Period: 0300-0600 Active Warning: YES Comment: Additional Details Here.

Space Weather Message Code: ALTK04
Serial Number: 2675
Issue Time: 2026 Jul 15 0558 UTC

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Threshold Reached: 2026 Jul 15 0554 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0300-0600
Active Warning: YES
Comment:

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

Aurora Forecast Bot from NOAA (UNOFFICIAL)@aurora.nws-bot.us · 3w ago

Aurora Forecast Update for 2026-07-14T01:04:05Z WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected Valid From: 2026 Jul 13 2349 UTC Valid To: 2026 Jul 14 0900 UTC Warning Conditions: Onset Comment: Additional Details Here.

Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 5384
Issue Time: 2026 Jul 13 2350 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From: 2026 Jul 13 2349 UTC
Valid To: 2026 Jul 14 0900 UTC
Warning Conditions: Onset
Comment:

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2026 Jul 14 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jul 14-Jul 16 2026 is 4.33 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Jul 14-Jul 16 2026

Jul 14 Jul 15 Jul 16
00-03UT 4.00 2.67 3.00
03-06UT 4.33 3.33 3.00
06-09UT 3.33 3.00 2.00
09-12UT 3.33 1.67 2.67
12-15UT 3.00 1.67 2.67
15-18UT 2.67 1.33 2.67
18-21UT 2.33 1.67 2.00
21-00UT 2.33 2.33 2.67

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jul 14-Jul 16 2026

Jul 14 Jul 15 Jul 16
S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Jul 14-Jul 16 2026

Jul 14 Jul 15 Jul 16
R1-R2 25% 20% 15%
R3 or greater 5% 1% 1%

Rationale: A chance for M-class flare activity will persist through 14
Jul before probabilities decrease to only a slight chance for 16-19 Jul
due to AR 4485s departure over the western limb.