Looking forward to speaking at the Hili Forum tomorrow

Russian President Putin commented for the first time on the Ukrainian strike campaign against Russian industry and infrastructure, saying that “such attacks have no critical consequences; they have not had any, and they cannot have any. But, of course, they do cause us harm”

I didn’t know Tucker Carlson was anti-nukes: “Nuclear weapons are demonic, there’s no upside to them at all, & anyone who claims otherwise is either ignorant or doing the bidding of the forces that created nuclear technology, which were not human forces obviously” www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024...

Tucker Carlson credits demons for the invention of nuclear technology

Ex-Fox News host makes bizarre claim on Steve Bannon’s podcast, days after saying a demon attacked him in his sleep

theguardian.com

It was an honor and a pleasure to take part in the Global Nobel Laureates Assembly on Artificial Intelligence and Nuclear War hosted by the @vaticannews.bsky.social It also helped me think through some of the AI-nuclear connections I've been reflecting on for quite some time 1/3

Missed this: In June, Russia designated several Harvard entities, including the Harvard Kennedy School and the Belfer Center, as "undesirable organizations," making it a criminal offense for Russian citizens to engage with them

Andrey Baklitskiy@baklitskiy.bsky.social · 6mo ago

Russia designates Stanford University as an “undesirable organization,” making it a criminal offense for Russian citizens to engage with it

So China again sent notifications ahead of its SLBM launch and even sent them to more regional countries than in 2024, including Japan and Papua New Guinea. But while it received quite a bit of recognition for doing so in 2024, that doesn't seem to be the case this time around?

When you went out to listen to some jazz in the park but you are in Switzerland

Carnegie Endowment is hiring carnegieendowment.applicantpro.com/jobs/4129694?

Program Assistant, Nuclear Policy Program - Washington, DC

Program Assistant Nuclear Policy Program The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, a unique global network of policy research centers, is seeking a program assistant to work with scholars in our...

carnegieendowment.applicantpro.com

A real AI-nuclear (and bio) nexus

Oleg Shakirov@shakirov2036.bsky.social · 4mo ago

AI firms put a lot of effort into creating safety mechanisms to prevent LLMs from generating harmful outputs Malware developers can exploit the same guardrails by hiding payload behind nuclear & bio weapons-linked instructions to trick AI-driven scanners socket.dev/blog/mini-sh...

That's how you break the deadlock at the Conference on Disarmament

I'm old enough to remember when cyber was the next big thing, the cyber-nuclear nexus was the hottest issue in town, and cyber capabilities were the deus ex machina of every wargame... www.vox.com/technology/4...

How AI could make wars go nuclear

We had a plan to prevent World War III. AI could break it.

vox.com

Tired: IAEA for AI Wired: INF Special Verification Commission for AI

Andrey Baklitskiy@baklitskiy.bsky.social · 4mo ago

I did not have Anthropic citing Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty as an example for AI regulation on my bingo card

I did not have Anthropic citing Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty as an example for AI regulation on my bingo card

Does anyone here have a WOTR subscription? 🙂

This is awesome

Oleg Shakirov@shakirov2036.bsky.social · 4mo ago

TIL that, in 2002, Kazakhstan & China signed an agreement on the Prevention of Dangerous Military Activities (DMA) Because it's modeled on the 1989 Soviet-U.S. DMA, it includes procedures for ship-to-ship communications Which is very helpful given the geography of their border

I recounted this to my wife. She asked whether I had considered that maybe I have been the problem all along and should stop participating in the NPT review process 😂

Andrey Baklitskiy@baklitskiy.bsky.social · 4mo ago

I participated in the NPT review process for the first time in 2013. There has not been a single agreed Final Document since then. When the next RevCon starts in 2031, it will have been 21 years since states parties last reached consensus.

I participated in the NPT review process for the first time in 2013. There has not been a single agreed Final Document since then. When the next RevCon starts in 2031, it will have been 21 years since states parties last reached consensus.

No consensus on the Final Document of the 2026 NPT RevCon. *sigh*

All right, we got ourselves a gap year, folks. NPT RevCon decides to hold the next RevCon in 2031 in New York, with PrepComs in 2028 (Vienna), 2029 (Geneva), and 2030 (New York).

A fascinating article by Vasily Kashin, Center Director at the Higher School of Economics in Moscow. The view is becoming more popular in Russia as of late, but we haven't seen it described as prominently in policy and research publications

Oleg Shakirov@shakirov2036.bsky.social · 4mo ago

Vasily Kashin argues that Russia cannot achieve its original "special military operation" goals (he doesn't think it's a failure) & should make peace under conditions discussed in Alaska—the first such acknowledgement from a prominent Russian expert globalaffairs.ru/articles/chu... 1/5

The fifth draft of the NPT final document is even shorter. Gone: paragraphs on nuclear sharing/extended deterrence, DPRK/Korean Peninsula, Zaporizhzhia NPP. Iran compliance paragraph bracketed (no consensus), language on reporting weakened

Andrey Baklitskiy@baklitskiy.bsky.social · 4mo ago

The fourth draft of the NPT final document is significantly shorter: 8 pages instead of 13, with 7 preambular and 45 operative paragraphs instead of 19 and 93. A lot of things are gone.

The fourth draft of the NPT final document is significantly shorter: 8 pages instead of 13, with 7 preambular and 45 operative paragraphs instead of 19 and 93. A lot of things are gone.

Andrey Baklitskiy@baklitskiy.bsky.social · 5mo ago

The third draft of the NPT final document continues the trend of becoming less controversial and demanding, mostly losing parts of the text, including some added in Rev2. The only increase is on the side of peaceful uses, and some language on attacks against nuclear facilities 🧵

I really like the Russian-Chinese Joint Declaration on the Emergence of a Multipolar World and International Relations of a New Type adopted today. Just read some of the points 🧵: "All states and their associations are free to choose their foreign partners and models of international cooperation."

Late in 2025 I saw a presentation on philanthropic contributions to various issues, which gave the following numbers for these issues: $10B — climate change $900M — AI safety $200M — biological threats $45M — nuclear security To just give a sense of orders of magnitudes...

The third draft of the NPT final document continues the trend of becoming less controversial and demanding, mostly losing parts of the text, including some added in Rev2. The only increase is on the side of peaceful uses, and some language on attacks against nuclear facilities 🧵

Just realized that next month Gen. Sergey Karakayev will mark 16 years as commander of Russian Strategic Rocket Forces, a record for both Russia and USSR. This is quite different from most other Russian services/ branches, which have seen significant turnover in recent years

Your classical NYC UN photo and - if you are at the NPT RevCon - a reminder to join us for our side event at 13:15 in CR8 on ensuring sustainable progress on risk reduction

P3 Joint Statement to the NPT RevCon encourages states to adopt concrete risk reduction measures, such as launch notifications and CBMs on nuclear testing and zero-yield. That's it, those are the measures.

Great contribution to the field from my colleague Sarah Ruth Opatowski. The compendium maps and analyzes a decade of nuclear risk reduction proposals across the NPT review process, First Committee, and other multilateral forums. Learn more at our side event at the RevCon on May 6, CR8

United Nations Institute for Disarmament Research@unidir.org · 5mo ago

☢️ As the Non-Proliferation Treaty Review Conference starts next week, UNIDIR’s latest compendium maps a decade of proposals and over 100 official documents on nuclear risk reduction, drawing out similarities, differences and potential paths forward. 🔗 Read it here: unidir.org/CompendiumNRR

"The atomic age is ending. One age of deterrence, the atomic age, is ending, and a new era of deterrence built on A.I. is set to begin" - yeah, I don't think this is true