Beltway Alpha

@beltwayalpha.bsky.social

I'm the editor of Blindtrust.io - the ultimate source for congressional and senate transparency, top predictive market trade news, and the FANTASY CONGRESS!

Jonathan Jackson, Democratic congressman from Illinois's 1st district, is trending today for a reason that has nothing to do with legislation. https://www.blindtrust.io/news/jonathan-jackson-is-trending-because-a-tv-star-died-his-congress-record-is-a-different-story

Jonathan Jackson Is Trending Because a TV Star Died. His Congress Record Is a Different Story.

Actor Jonathan Jackson's tribute to Hayden Panettiere sent the Illinois congressman trending on Google. What Blind Trust found in his financial disclosures is a 49-out-of-100 win rate and three trades on a single June Friday.

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Eight winners out of 21 scored trades, mean alpha of negative 1.7%. The committee-overlap book, taken as a group, is negative. That's the full record, not a highlight reel. #RickLarsen https://www.blindtrust.io/news/rick-larsen-sold-abbott-stock-now-he-s-all-over-google-news

Rick Larsen Sold Abbott Stock. Now He's All Over Google News.

The incoming Transportation Committee chair has one trade in 90 days and a track record that runs 8-for-21. Here's the full picture.

blindtrust.io

Moskowitz bought Meta Platforms on June 17. Seven days later he voted on a tech bill. The 30-day alpha on that position came in at 17.9 points above the S&P 500. $META #JaredMoskowitz https://www.blindtrust.io/news/moskowitz-bought-meta-seven-days-later-he-voted-on-a-privacy-bill

Moskowitz Bought META. Seven Days Later He Voted on a Privacy Bill.

Six trades in 90 days, a 58% win rate on 65 scored positions, and one timing question the public record doesn't answer.

blindtrust.io

Josh Gottheimer is trending on Google News today with exactly zero stories attached to his name in the last 24 hours. https://www.blindtrust.io/news/josh-gottheimer-filed-34-trades-in-90-days-one-was-500k-into-microsoft

Josh Gottheimer Filed 34 Trades in 90 Days. One Was $500K Into Microsoft.

The New Jersey Democrat filed 34 disclosed trades in 90 days, including up to $1 million into Microsoft — a company directly inside his AI and federal cybersecurity oversight remit.

blindtrust.io

Across 30 scored trades, Byron Donalds has gone 12-for-30 on 30-day alpha vs. the S&P 500. The mean sits at negative 1.0%. A coin flip would have done better. #ByronDonalds https://www.blindtrust.io/news/byron-donalds-is-trending-his-portfolio-is-also-interesting

Byron Donalds Is Trending. His Portfolio Is Also Interesting.

The Florida governor's race is getting messy, so here's what Donalds's stock filings look like while everyone's watching.

blindtrust.io

Six scored trades. One positive alpha. Five negative. Mean 30-day alpha: -2.9% vs the S&P 500. Whatever edge people assume Congress has, Auchincloss either doesn't have it… https://www.blindtrust.io/news/jake-auchincloss-is-in-the-globe-for-his-ad-spending-his-stock-trades-are-a-separate-problem

Jake Auchincloss Is in the Globe for His Ad Spending. His Stock Trades Are a Separate Problem.

The Boston Globe is asking who's paying for Auchincloss's taxpayer-funded ads. Blind Trust checked his trading record: one sale in 90 days, negative alpha on five of six scored trades.

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8-for-15 on positive alpha, mean return at -0.7% vs the S&P 500. Virginia Foxx keeps trading Alliance Resource Partners with mixed results. The record is the record. $ARLP #VirginiaFoxx https://www.blindtrust.io/news/virginia-foxx-bought-arlp-twice-then-sold-it-34-days-later

Virginia Foxx Bought ARLP Twice, Then Sold It 34 Days Later

The North Carolina Republican traded Alliance Resource Partners three times in 90 days — buy, buy, sell. Her 15-trade alpha record sits at minus-0.7% against the S&P 500. The filings are public.

blindtrust.io

Nine scored trades. Zero positive alpha. The best trade in Dwight Evans's sample clocked in at negative 0.0%. That is, empirically, the best one. $GD $TMO https://www.blindtrust.io/news/dwight-evans-sold-general-dynamics-six-weeks-later-he-voted-no-on-the-ndaa

Dwight Evans Sold General Dynamics. Six Weeks Later He Voted No on the NDAA.

The Philadelphia Democrat sold GD in June, then voted no on the NDAA in July. Forty-two days between the trade and the floor vote. His broader record: nine tracked trades, zero positive 30-day alpha.

blindtrust.io

7 stock sales. 1 day. Comcast, Diageo, Estée Lauder, Kenvue, Mondelez, Organon, Versant Media. No explanation required. No explanation provided. The filing never says. #KevinHern https://www.blindtrust.io/news/kevin-hern-dumped-7-stocks-in-one-day-here-s-the-tape

Kevin Hern Dumped 7 Stocks in One Day. Here's the Tape.

The Oklahoma Republican sold everything from Comcast to Diageo on August 5. His broader trading record is 31-for-74. Ways and Means oversees health. He trades health stocks.

blindtrust.io

18 trades. 3 winners. A mean 30-day alpha of negative 9.3% against the S&P 500. Susie Lee's Full House Resorts trading history is the thread worth pulling. $FLL https://www.blindtrust.io/news/susie-lee-sold-fll-18-times-her-mean-alpha-negative-9-3

Susie Lee Sold FLL 18 Times. Her Mean Alpha: Negative 9.3%.

Nevada's congresswoman from Las Vegas has disclosed 18 scored trades in Full House Resorts. Three beat the S&P. The mean 30-day alpha across all 18: negative 9.3 percent.

blindtrust.io

Rulli bought Alphabet Inc. while sitting on the committee with technology jurisdiction, then voted for a privacy bill whose subject is Alphabet's entire business model. The interpretation is yours… https://www.blindtrust.io/news/rulli-sold-amazon-bought-google-and-now-four-stories-hit-in-24-hours

Rulli Sold Amazon, Bought Google, and Now Four Stories Hit in 24 Hours

The Ohio freshman's trading record is thin, one disclosed trade in 90 days, but the market-tracking sites noticed anyway.

blindtrust.io

Ed Case sits on Appropriations Defense and bought Apple in May. The 30-day alpha came in at +3.9% over the S&P 500. His committee overlap with tech procurement is real. The interpretation is yours. $AAPL… https://www.blindtrust.io/news/ed-case-bought-apple-in-may-tonight-he-fights-to-keep-his-seat

Ed Case Bought Apple in May. Tonight He Fights to Keep His Seat.

Hawaii's HI-01 Democratic primary is tonight. Case bought Apple in May while sitting on Appropriations Defense. His trade record is one buy, one beat. Connect the dots yourself.

blindtrust.io

Dan Newhouse made 12 purchases in 30 days, topped by Accenture, while sitting on the committee that funds the federal contracts keeping Accenture in business. $ACN https://www.blindtrust.io/news/congress-s-biggest-stock-buyers-this-month-152k-leads-the-pack

Congress's Biggest Stock Buyers This Month: $152K Leads the Pack

Thirty days of STOCK Act disclosures, ranked by purchase volume. Midpoints only — the real numbers are probably higher.

blindtrust.io

Ritchie John Torres bought McKesson stock in January 2025. He disclosed it 502 days later. The STOCK Act deadline is 45 days. The fine for missing it is $200. $MCK #RitchieTorres https://www.blindtrust.io/news/the-wall-of-disclosure-10-worst-stock-act-delays-in-five-years-1785925834

The Wall of Disclosure: 10 Worst STOCK Act Delays in Five Years

Five years of STOCK Act delays, ranked by days past the 45-day deadline. The worst entry sat for 502 days.

blindtrust.io

75 winning trades out of 188 scored. Mean 30-day alpha: -1.3%. April McClain Delaney bought BWX Technologies eight days after voting on the defense bill. The filings are timestamped. $BWXT… https://www.blindtrust.io/news/april-mcclain-delaney-filed-111-trades-her-race-is-now-a-toss-up

April McClain Delaney Filed 111 Trades. Her Race Is Now a Toss-Up.

The NYT is polling her district. Benzinga flagged a $900K BWXT buy. The filings are busy.

blindtrust.io

One trade, zero positive outcomes, a mean 30-day alpha of -2.3%. That's the full scored sample on Etoro Group. Not a highlight reel. The filing is the filing. $ETOR… https://www.blindtrust.io/news/bernie-moreno-told-his-ex-son-in-law-to-quit-congress-his-one-stock-trade-lost-to-the-market

Bernie Moreno Told His Ex-Son-in-Law to Quit Congress. His One Stock Trade Lost to the Market.

The Ohio senator publicly called on Rep. Max Miller — his former son-in-law — to resign over domestic abuse allegations. His last 90 days of disclosed trading: one sale of a fintech stock that outperformed the S&P after he sold it.

blindtrust.io

Dan Newhouse is not running for re-election, and Washington's 4th Congressional District is officially up for grabs. https://www.blindtrust.io/news/dan-newhouse-filed-31-trades-in-90-days-he-s-not-running-again

Dan Newhouse Filed 31 Trades in 90 Days. He's Not Running Again.

The Central Washington congressman filed 31 trades in 90 days — including a 15-ticker single-day rotation in July — while his party shops for his replacement.

blindtrust.io

Whitehouse's committee-overlap trades went 5 for 5 on positive alpha. His overall record is 11 for 36 with a mean return of minus 4.7%. The committee-overlap slice and the broader record… https://www.blindtrust.io/news/sheldon-whitehouse-sold-300k-in-stocks-his-committee-overlap-trades-are-5-for-5

Sheldon Whitehouse Sold $300K in Stocks. His Committee-Overlap Trades Are 5 for 5.

The Rhode Island senator filed two sales — Oracle and Dart Group — totaling up to $300K over 48 hours in May. His overall trade record is 11 for 36, mean alpha minus 4.7%. His committee-overlap trades are 5 for 5.

blindtrust.io

McGuire's full scored trading record: 6 wins, 10 losses, mean 30-day alpha of -2.6%. A member of the financial services oversight subcommittee sold BlackRock. The filing says… https://www.blindtrust.io/news/john-mcguire-sold-blackrock-while-sitting-on-the-financial-services-oversight-subcommittee

John McGuire Sold BlackRock While Sitting on the Financial Services Oversight Subcommittee

Four trades in 90 days: out of Dell and BlackRock, into Meta and a SPAC ETF. His full record across 16 scored positions is 6 wins, 10 losses, mean 30-day alpha of negative 2.6%. The BLK sale carries a committee-overlap flag.

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