The majority was correct. "Treasury anticipates maintaining nominal coupon and FRN auction sizes for at least the next several quarters." home.treasury.gov/news/press-r...

Beth Stanton@bethstanton.bsky.social · 23h ago

Here's my shakedown of big US bond dealers on how they're thinking about tomorrow's Treasury Quarterly Refunding. Next week's note and bond auction sizes will be announced and, by convention, sizes through October projected. www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

#TreasuriesToday: Yields narrowly mixed with curve flatter as oil firms. Treasury Dept at 8:30am announces next week's auction sizes & projections for August to October, with focus again on whether guidance on stasis will change from "at least the next several quarters."

Here's my shakedown of big US bond dealers on how they're thinking about tomorrow's Treasury Quarterly Refunding. Next week's note and bond auction sizes will be announced and, by convention, sizes through October projected. www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Bond Dealers Expect US Will Avoid Signaling Auction Increases

The US Treasury will need to increase the sizes of at least some of its fixed-rate borrowing programs next year but is unlikely to signal the shift just yet, according to bond dealers.

bloomberg.com

#TreasuriesToday: Yields little changed, off session highs, with oil prices edging lower. Ahead Wednesday, Treasury Dept projects auction sizes for August to October, with focus again on whether guidance on stasis will change from "at least the next several quarters."

#TreasuriesToday: Yields lower by 5bp-6bp, trailing steeper declines in UK bond market, with oil down more than 5%. Friday's ranges included YTD highs for 10Y (4.745%) & 30Y (5.28%). July index return -1.1%, YTD -3.5%. Ahead Weds, Tsy Dept projects auction sizes for Aug-Oct.

#TreasuriesToday: Yields higher by 1bp-2bp with curve slightly flatter but still notably steeper on the week after Fed didn't hike. Month-end index rebalancing at 4pm to extend duration by estimated 0.06yr. Ahead next week, Treasury Dept Weds announces auction sizes for Aug-Oct.

#TreasuriesToday: Yields mixed with curve steeper, extending Wednesday's dramatic post-FOMC moves (5s30s shifted 7bp, most in a year, as 30Y rose 11bp to 2007 levels). Short-term rate contracts price in ~16bp of tightening for September & 2 hikes by mid-2027.

#TreasuriesToday: Yields higher by 2bp-3bp with oil benchmarks up nearly 5%. New 7Y 4.51% vs Tuesday's 4.473% auction result. Ahead of 2pm Fed rate decision, short-term rate contracts price in about 9bp of tightening & fully price in 2 hikes by mid-2027.

#TreasuriesToday: Yields lower by 2bp-3bp with oil benchmarks down 1%-2%. $44b 7Y note auction at 1pm (last coupon sale until Aug. 11) has WI yield near 4.50%, higher than 7Y auction results since December 2024. Buyback (max $2b) in 20Y-30Y sector closes at 2pm.

#TreasuriesToday: Yields lower by 2bp-4bp inside last week's ranges, which included YTD highs for all tenors but 30Y, amid steep oil-price drop. Final coupon auctions of May-July financing quarter begin with 2Y at 11:30am, $70b 5Y at 1pm. WI yields exceed results since Dec 2024.

#TreasuriesToday: Yields slightly lower inside Thursday's ranges, which included YTD highs for 2Y-10Y, with oil benchmarks down more than 2%, 1st drop in 6 days. Auctions ahead next week: $69b 2Y & $70b 5Y, both on Monday, $44b 7Y Tuesday, last of the May-July financing quarter.

#TreasuriesToday: Yields higher by 3bp-4bp. 10Y joined 2Y-7Y at YTD highs (4.70%). 30Y still ~2bp short of its 2026 high (5.20%). Auction at 1pm, $21b 10Y TIPS new issue, has WI yield ~2.40%, exceeding comparables since 2009. Buyback of up to $2b in 10Y-20Y sector closes at 2pm.

#TreasuriesToday: Yields slightly cheaper but outperforming in G4 with oil up more than 3% & highest since June 11. $13b 20Y reopening (2nd) at 1pm has WI yield near 5.15%, exceeding all but one previous result (5.245% in Oct 2023). 1Y-10Y TIPS buyback ($750m max) closes at 2pm.

#TreasuriesToday: Yields narrowly mixed with curve steeper after plying tiny ranges overnight (for 10Y, about 2bp). Oil benchmarks are up more than 1% but still inside Monday's ranges. Ahead this week: $13b 20Y reopening (2nd) Wednesday, $21b 10Y TIPS new issue Thursday.

#TreasuriesToday: Yields little changed, off session highs reached amid oil price increases to highest level in a month. 10Y back to 4.55% vs session high 4.57%. Ahead this week: $13b 20Y reopening (2nd) Wednesday, $21b 10Y TIPS new issue Thursday.

#TreasuriesToday: Yields down 1bp-4bp near weekly lows despite higher oil prices, with stock futures red. Treasury releases primary dealer survey questions for August refunding at noon. Ahead next week: $13b 20Y reopening (2nd) Wednesday, $21b 10Y TIPS new issue Thursday.

#TreasuriesToday: Yields higher by 2bp-3bp inside yesterday's (PPI-driven) rally ranges. Next week's auction sizes at 11am: $13b 20Y reopening (2nd), $21b 10Y TIPS new issue projected. Buyback of up to $2b in 20Y-30Y sector closes at 2pm.

#TreasuriesToday: Yields higher by 1bp-2bp with oil up less than 0.5%. All but 30Y are inside Tuesday's rally ranges, the market's best day since June 24. 30Y (5.12%) is highest since May 21, however. $119b coupon settlement ($43.9b net).

#TreasuriesToday: Yields little changed, off session highs including YTD highs for 2Y (near 4.30%) & 5Y (4.39%). Ahead of June CPI & Warsh congressional testimony, short-term rate contracts price in ~40% chance of July rate hike & fully price in 2 (1st by October, 2nd in 1Q).

#TreasuriesToday: Yields higher by about 1bp, oil benchmarks more than 3%. Day's ranges include YTD highs for 2Y (4.235%) & 3Y (4.274%) & for 10Y TIPS (2.32%). Next coupon auction is 20Y reopening on July 22. Ahead this week, primary dealer survey questions for August refunding.

#TreasuriesToday: Yields little changed following yday's oil-driven rally. 30Y reopening trades slightly cheap to its 5.058% auction stop, highest since 2007. Next coupon auction is 20Y reopening on July 22. Ahead next week, primary dealer survey questions for August refunding.

#TreasuriesToday: Yields mixed, curve steeper. $22b 30Y reopening (2nd) at 1pm has WI yield near 5.09%, exceeding 30Y auction stops since 2001-2006 issuance hiatus. 10Y reopening trades slightly cheap to Wednesday's 4.58% stop. Buyback of up to $4b in 2Y-3Y sector closes at 2pm.

#TreasuriesToday: Yields higher with oil prices by 1bp-2bp, off session highs including highest 2Y (4.22%) since June 22 YTD peak. $39b 10Y reopening (2nd) at 1pm has WI yield near 4.57%, exceeding 10Y auction results since Feb 2025. New 3Y 4.23% vs Tuesday's 4.179% auction stop.

#TreasuriesToday: Yields higher with oil prices by 2bp-3bp, off session highs including highest 30Y (5.02%) since June 11. July auctions begin with $58b 3Y new issue at 1pm. WI yield is near 4.18% vs last month's 4.192% result. 10Y & 30Y reopenings follow Weds & Thurs.

#TreasuriesToday: Yields lower by as much as 3bp-4bp with oil prices holding near low end of range since late February. Curve steeper. Auctions ahead this week: $58b 3Y new issue Tuesday, $39b 10Y & $22b 30Y reopenings (2nd) Wednesday & Thursday.

Garden vibes from my alter ego www.instagram.com/p/DaVcCT8kY6...

#TreasuriesToday: Yields narrowly mixed with curve steeper. Next week's auction sizes TBA at 11am: $58b 3Y new issue, $39b 10Y & $22b 30Y reopenings (2nd) projected. Pre-holiday, SIFMA has recommended 2pm close & EOD index pricing is at 1pm, concurrent with futures settlement.

#TreasuriesToday: Yields higher by less than 2bp, extending yday's curve-steepening selloff around the month-end index rebalancing at 4pm, which pared June gain to 0.28% (just from income & accounting for entire YTD return). Buyback of up to $2b in 10Y-20Y sector closes at 2pm.

#TreasuriesToday: Yields higher by 1bp-2bp. $207b coupon settlement ($64.2b net). Month-end index rebalancing at 4pm to extend duration by estimated 0.06yr. Coupon auctions resume July 7. June sales of high-grade corporate bonds are near $200b, reached only 7 times before.

#TreasuriesToday: Yields little changed. Last week's ranges included lowest 2Y in a week, lowest 5Y & 10Y since mid-May, lowest 30Y since March. Ahead this holiday-shortened week: month-end index rebalancing to extend duration by estimated 0.06yr. Coupon auctions resume July 7.