Bill Comeau 🇨🇦

@bill-comeau.bsky.social

Canadian. Statistician. Math. Show me the evidence. I've been known to dwell on little things like pandemics, population health, preventable deaths, disinformation, authoritarians, kleptocracies, annexation, and protecting democracies. Also, Leafs & Jays.

Phrase for today: "Geopolitical entropy" It describes how human decisions shift global systems from structured order to unpredictable disorder and chaos.

JTMLX@jtmlx.bsky.social · 2d ago

#GIFT_ARTICLE IRAN ISSUES LIST OF DEMANDS, COMPLICATING EFFORTS TO REOPEN THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ Iran's leaders said that the Strait of Hormuz would remain closed until the United States met certain conditions. By Yeganeh Torbati, Leily Nikounazar and Aaron Boxerman www.nytimes.com/2026/08/08/w...

IF the US truly wants to annex Canada long-term, then their best move is to create uncertainty in our economy. And since 70% of our exports go to the US, ongoing unpredictable tariff actions are the best way to do that. Our economy depends on capital investment and capital avoids uncertainty. /2

I wonder how many covid or vaccine skeptics would be alive today if they had been given the tools to absorb what I and others were trying to communicate. It felt like an unbridgeable chasm. To understand the science, a basic knowledge of viruses, probabilities, and statistical modeling helps a lot.

Good news on the flu front. Over 40,000 tested with a new mRNA vaccine. Results show a 26.6% improvement in effectiveness over existing flu vaccines. Over 3,500 Canadians die each year from the flu and over 12,000 are hospitalized. Health Canada is reviewing it now. www.cbc.ca/news/health/...

U.S. FDA approves first mRNA flu shot from Moderna | CBC News

Reversing an earlier refusal, the FDA has approved Moderna's first mRNA flu shot for adults 50 and older. Here's what the major decision means as Health Canada considers its own approval of the vaccin...

cbc.ca

I'd like to remind Canadians that we are not in a recession or as weak as some on the Right suggest. The US lost 25,000 jobs in July while Canada gained 75,000. Our unemployment rate is at a 2 year low. Our inflation rate is in target range. Our Q2 GDP data is due soon and looks positive. /2

On this day 50 years ago I lost my first wife to an undetected brain aneurysm. We never reached our first anniversary. She is the reason I stopped other work and dedicated myself to providing reliable covid and vaccine information during the pandemic. I knew she would have wanted me to do that.

Do I still fully support Ukraine in its heroic fight to remain free against Russia's invasion of 2022? Yes I absolutely do, like most Canadians. I wish I could say the same about Trump, MAGA, and his US Administration. America is no longer the defender of freedom it claims to be. #SlavaUkraini

Are there fewer articles of depth and substance nowadays in Canada's media, including the CBC? This might be a natural fallout from increasing budget, political and online pressures? Many of the headlines seem more catchy-juvenile and the content closer to junk food than a three course meal.

Climate fact for today: Carbon dioxide is a greenhouse gas. More CO₂ in the atmosphere leads to planetary warming. This NOAA graph shows 800,000 years of carbon dioxide measurement based on bubbles in ice core samples. The peaks are interglacial warming periods, the magenta line shows modern data/2

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No words can describe how ridiculously and constantly Trump and his orbiting sycophants lie, even about the little things. You couldn't write a Monty Python script this hilarious. Imagine doing an interview or negotiating tariffs with this crowd. www.cnn.com/2026/08/01/p...

Trump’s Reflecting Pool debacle takes a predictably scandalous turn | CNN Politics

Nothing about what happened Friday, when the Justice Department dropped its case against a purported Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool vandal, was completely surprising.

cnn.com

Bit esoteric but: Be on the look out next year for a sleight of hand where the Fed definition of inflation is revised to cut out rising healthcare expenditures, in the wake of Trump/Republican legislated program cuts. (Trump's nominee now runs the Fed.)

#UEFA is threatening to leave #FIFA, the world's football (aka soccer) association. How significant is UEFA? The World Cup had 48 teams and 104 matches. - 16 UEFA teams entered - UEFA teams won 41 of the 62 matches they played - UEFA had 6 of the Final 8, 3 of the Final 4, and the winner.

Might be time to think about a new association of the nations of the world, one that excludes tyrants and other authoritarian regimes. Two of the five veto wielding countries in the UN are authoritarian, another is heading that way. More action from majority decisions, less obstruction from vetos.

The evidence supports the alt theory of a spillover from animals sold at the market. Spillovers also happen to account for all other novel infectious disease epidemics. I'm tired of writing about this since I'm tired of the harassment. Pretty much every science writer I know feels the same.

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Partisan #Fauci accusations are not #facts. Accusations that remain disputed and unproven: 1. Fauci funded gain of function research in Wuhan. 2. Covid originated from a lab leak in China. 3. Fauci chased fame. 4. Trump would have had to close down the country if he listened to Fauci.

Fact: Canada has the largest intact boreal forest in the world, 41x the size of England. It stores ~200 billion tonnes of carbon, equivalent to 25 years of the carbon emitted from fossil fuels. The 2023 fires burned 5% of the forest yet still burned more carbon than Russia or Japan emitted in 2022.

The US Show Trial of the distinguished and innocent scientist Anthony Fauci reminds me of the Soviet era trials and the McCarthy witch hunts, maybe even the Catholic church trial of Galileo centuries ago. History books will add this dark chapter to the other times when ignorance ran amok.

I said a while ago Poilievre is done as leader of the CPC. He has moved closer to the centre but his more extreme policies, statements, and behaviour have alienated too many Canadians. The CPC may well get a bounce with a new leader in the future, something the Liberal Party should be prepared for.

Philippe J. Fournier@338canada.bsky.social · 2w ago

📊Nanos Research Preferred PM tracker, July 3-24, 2026: 🔴Mark Carney 54% (+4) 🔵Pierre Poilievre 18% (-6) (Comparison with previous 4-week wave) 338canada.com/20260724-nan...

In many ways Donald Trump is being normalized and celebrated within mainstream America, from the top of the corporate ladder to the bottom. Canadians should not delude themselves, Trump is not a lone wolf, he is the leader of a corrupted and twisted nation. Don’t buy GM. #CanadaStrong

Aaron Rupar@atrupar.com · 2w ago

GM CEO Mary Barra is introducing Trump at his rally. Something to keep in mind if you're in the market for a vehicle anytime soon.