In our new paper, colleagues from @taxpolicycenter.bsky.social and I offer a preliminary assessment of OBBBA, covering what it changed and what its effects will be on the budget, the economy, distributional outcomes, and future fiscal policy. taxpolicycenter.org/research-rep...

One Big Beautiful Bill? A Preliminary Assessment

The “One Big Beautiful Bill Act of 2025” (OBBBA), signed into law July 4, 2025, is a sweeping tax-and-spending package that could reshape federal fiscal policy for decades to come.

taxpolicycenter.org

The plan to extend and expand the 199A deduction for businesses makes for bad economics. My new blog with @samthorpe.bsky.social explains why.

Sam Thorpe@samthorpe.bsky.social · last yr.

🚨 NEW from me + @billgale.bsky.social: as part of their 'Big, Beautiful Bill,' House Rs want to expand a tax break for businesses known as Section 199A. In a new Brookings brief, we explain why economists across the political spectrum agree this would be regressive and ineffective. A thread (1/8):

New post out in @contrariannews.org on Trump's misguided and potentially destructive tariffs.

The Contrarian@contrariannews.org · last yr.

It’s not every day that a president proudly pursues a tariff plan that threatens to create a global recession. (Un)fortunately for us, that day has come, gone, and come back again. Economist @billgale.bsky.social is here to discuss the misconceptions and fumbled steps.

In the latest budget update, Alan Auerbach and I show that the fiscal outlook remains grim. Under current law, debt will reach 154% of GDP by 2055. Under current policy, which assumes that TCJA is made permanent, debt reaches 209% of GDP. www.brookings.edu/articles/the...

The fiscal outlook at the beginning of the new administration

Alan Auerbach and William Gale provide an update on the fiscal outlook, showing that the federal budget trajectory remains unsustainable.

brookings.edu

New working paper: The U.S. income tax may be race-neutral on paper, but its effects aren’t. Our new paper shows how white, Black, and Hispanic families face different burdens, especially when considering untaxed income. Read more: www.brookings.edu/articles/the...

The same but different

William Gale, Oliver Hall, and John Sabelhaus measure the differential taxation of Black, Hispanic and white households

brookings.edu

1.2% of GDP. That's how much extending TCJA will cost each year. It's also how much would it take to close the Social Security funding gap for 75 years or longer. Congress could save Social Security, and avoiding a regressive tax cut would make it possible. www.brookings.edu/articles/cut...

Cut taxes or save Social Security? The $5 trillion question

Revenues that would go to making the TCJA tax cuts permanent could be used to make Social Security solvent for at least the next 75 years.

brookings.edu

The gutting of the estate tax has been costly. If the 2001 rules were still in place (indexed for inflation), it would've raised $145B in 2021—seven times more than the actual $18B collected. www.brookings.edu/articles/tax...

Taxing the Great Wealth Transfer with a stronger estate tax

brookings.edu

As we face the largest intergenerational wealth transfer in US history, converting the federal estate tax (taxing what people leave) to an inheritance tax (taxing what people receive) could be a win-win. 1/2 www.brookings.edu/articles/fol...

Follow the money: Tax inheritances, not estates

brookings.edu

As DOGE continues its blitz across Washington, it's missing a major opportunity: tax expenditures. Reforming these hidden subsidies in the tax code, which cost roughly $1.5T annually, could reduce deficits, increase progressivity, and simplify the code. www.brookings.edu/articles/a-b...

A bigger, easier target for DOGE: Tax expenditures

Cutting tax expenditures could be an effective and politically viable way to streamline the federal government and raise revenues.

brookings.edu

Trump is in LV promoting no taxes on tips. Exempting tips from taxes does nothing to help most low-income workers, and it may do little for many tipped workers—or even harm them as @billgale.bsky.social & Ian Berlin of @brookings.edu discuss in @econofact.bsky.social econofact.org/tip-off-the-...

Tip Off: The Problem with Exempting Tips from Taxes | Econofact

Exempting tips from taxes does nothing to help most low-income workers, and it may do little for many tipped workers—or even actively harm them.

econofact.org

One of the main justifications for the TCJA was boosting investment. But did it achieve this goal? Recent research shows that the impact on overall investment was small, meaning that lawmakers could raise rates and increase revenue with little economic downside. www.brookings.edu/articles/how...

How much did TCJA raise investment?

Ahead of the Trump tax cuts expiring in 2025, William Gale examines the limited effect the cuts had on corporate investment.

brookings.edu

Here's one for the wonks: in a new paper with @johnsabelhaus.bsky.social, we introduce a new measure of income for distributional analyses, Expanded Income. www.brookings.edu/articles/exp...

Expanded Income

William G. Gale and John Sabelhaus develop a new annual measure of income for distributional tax analysis.

brookings.edu

In a new paper and policy brief, we analyze the upcoming Great Wealth Transfer and explore several options for tax reform. We show that converting the estate tax to an inheritance tax, as well as taxing unrealized capital gains at death, can improve progressivity and raise significant revenue.

Brookings Institution@brookings.edu · 2y ago

The U.S. is about to see the largest set of intergenerational wealth transfers in its history. William Gale, Oliver Hall, and John Sabelhaus examine how to tax these flows appropriately and judiciously. www.brookings.edu/articles/how...

In a new Tax Notes paper, Kyle and I look at how taxes on the affluent affect six key economic distortions and how various proposals for reform could improve these distortions. The full paper is now available, plus a related blog: www.brookings.edu/articles/are...

Are there better ways to tax the rich?

New research shows that there are better ways to tax the affluent that can increase revenue while minimizing distortions.

brookings.edu

Kyle Pomerleau@kylepomerleau.bsky.social · 2y ago

New paper with @billgale.bsky.social is no longer paywall'd: Efficient and Equitable Income Taxation of the Affluent We review 6 ways in which taxing high-income households impact economic efficiency. www.aei.org/articles/eff...

Finally made the jump over here, and I'm excited to share some recent work, starting with this summer's JEP paper with @kylepomerleau.bsky.social and Jeffrey Hoopes. We find that TCJA fell short of its pro-growth goals while mainly benefiting the wealthy—at significant cost to the federal budget.