On the morning of July 1st the O’s were 9 games under .500 (39-48) and 5 games back from the 3rd wildcard spot. Tonight they finish the month with a 15-8 record (.652 W%) over 23 games played. That win % and record is the best they’ve had in a month of baseball since May of 2024 🔥

Jackson Holliday's hamate surgery back on Feb. 12th was one day after two other big-name players had similar procedures (Francisco Lindor and Corbin Carroll). In this mini case study, we track these three players in their recovery and return in the 2026 season.

Our schedule leverage calculations and playoff model are telling us which series are currently holding more weight in shifting the O's playoff odds the rest of the way. Read our full breakdown of the dates we think you should mark on your calendar right now 👇 birdlandmetrics.com/articles/aug...

August Is the Season — Birdland Metrics

The 2026 Orioles are 2.5 games out of the third wild card spot with 20.4% playoff odds. The Monte Carlo model knows which four series will decide the season. Here is the map.

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1) The next 4 of 5 games right before the trade deadline on 8/3 are showing pitching matchups against the O’s (either expected or scheduled) that are pretty much a gauntlet. [Tigers series] Tonight: Troy Melton (1.95 ERA in 10 starts) 7/29: Tarik Skubal (2.70 ERA, 15 starts)

🚨 1) For better or for worse, we are releasing a big update to our “schedule leverage” page today. The O’s have 56 games and 18 series remaining in the 2026 season. Not all remaining series hold the same weight in terms of impacting their playoff odds.

Our new Team Stats page is up on the site! What is it? An Orioles-specific dashboard of team batting, starting pitching, bullpen, RISP, ABS and more! Data updates daily. Link below: birdlandmetrics.com/visualizatio...

Trevor Rogers has a 1.40 ERA in his last 3 starts and is looking more like his 2025 self. However, he had a tough stretch from mid-April thru May: a 10+ ERA over 7 starts. Harshil does a great job breaking down the decision the O’s have on his future👇 www.birdlandmetrics.com/articles/tre...

We're in the Trevor Rogers Discount Window (For Now) — Birdland Metrics

Trevor Rogers has been two pitchers in 2026, one who cratered through May with a 6.84 ERA, and one who one-hit the Dodgers in Yoshinobu Yamamoto's own stadium. The calendar will hit November either way, and so does free agency. The Orioles have spent a full year not talking about it. They don't have much time left.

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The O's lost two more 1-run games this past week. By month, the O's have gone: June: 1-4 in one-run games May: 3-5 in one-run games April: 1-4 in one-run games March: 1-0 in one-run games Overall, that's a 6-13 record. The lowest W% (.316) in one-run games of any team in MLB so far this season.

Kyle Bradish is pitching on another level his past 2 starts. Tonight: 8IP, 0ER, 9Ks 6/17: 7.2IP, 1ER, 12Ks Jacob Misiorowski is the only other pitcher this season to have back-to-back starts that went 15+ innings and 21+ strikeouts. Absolutely phenomenal "ace" stuff.

Orioles starters this past week. 4 of 6 were quality starts: Young (6/21): 5IP, 1ER Rogers (6/20): 7IP, 0ER Gibson (6/19): 5IP, 3ER Baz (6/18): 7IP, 3ER Bradish (6/17): 7.2IP, 1ER Young (6/16): 6IP, 3ER That’s a 2.63 ERA, the best in MLB for a starting rotation. Can Bradish keep it going tonight?

We have our 8th perfect window of the season! All 4 panes lit up, Brandon Young had a shaky 1st, but bounced back w/ a solid 5IP and only 1ER vs one of the best lineups in baseball. The bullpen held it down, the bats were alive, and fielding was solid. What a great Father’s Day! BAL 12, LAD 1.

Through an awesome collaboration with a volunteer/contributor we officially have a Birdland Metrics app on the App Store! Our playoff odds, standings projections, schedule “importance” tracker, articles and more, right on your phone! Give it a download 👇 apps.apple.com/us/app/birdl...

Birdland Metrics App - App Store

Download Birdland Metrics by Zach Alexander on the App Store. See screenshots, ratings and reviews, user tips, and more apps like Birdland Metrics.

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O’s with a much needed 7-2 win. All 4 panes given a "strong" grade for just the 7th perfect window of the season! Young's 7 shutout innings anchored a dominant performance - offense, defense, and both pitching units firing on all cylinders Full visual: birdlandmetrics.com/visualizations/warehouse

What a great start from Brandon Young tonight. 7IP, 2H, 0ER, 5K, 2BB He’s the first O’s pitcher to go 7+IP and have 2 or less hits in a game this season. It only happened twice in 2025: Brandon Young on 8/15 vs. the Astros Trevor Rogers on 7/26 vs. the Rockies The O’s are back in the win column.

The trade deadline is 54 days away. The Orioles are 31-37 but just 2 games out of a WC spot. The next 30 games could be the most important stretch of O’s baseball since the start of the rebuild in 2018. We break down why in our latest article👇 birdlandmetrics.com/articles/mos...

The Next Month Will Make or Break the 7-Year Orioles Process — Birdland Metrics

The Orioles are 2 games out of a Wild Card spot with 94 left to play. The next month will determine whether the 7-year rebuild window is still open, or whether it closed when no one was looking.

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The Orioles OPS leaderboard through 66 games so far this season (min 30 PAs) Adley has been in the top spot for 33 games Basallo has been in the top spot for 10 games

The O's are 24th in MLB in run differential but it's a bit of a skewed story. 6 of 63 games (~10%) account for a -55 net run differential: 17-1 L vs. BOS NYY series where they were swept (bad 4 games) 13-3 L vs. WSH Removing these 6 games, the O's have a +18 run differential

A PERFECT WINDOW TODAY! This is just the 6th game all season that all four panes have a "strong" grade: Rogers' quality start anchored a wire-to-wire victory. The O's bats mashed 6 runs in the 1st, no fielding errors, and the bullpen closed the door. They are rolling into Toronto!

Excited to announce that our pitcher tab is now live on our stats page! There’s still work to do, and we welcome feedback, but you can see some cool stats compiled and updated daily specifically for O’s batters & pitchers. Check it out 👇: birdlandmetrics.com/visualizations/orioles-player-stats

Pete Alonso had a slow start to his tenure in Baltimore. April was a .632 OPS sinkhole. But, sporting a 129 wRC+ over the past 30 days, he’s looking more like the Alonso of the past. Harshil breaks down the intangibles he brings to a young O’s roster👇: birdlandmetrics.com/articles/pet...

The Pete Alonso Effect: What the Stats Miss About Baltimore's Biggest Signing — Birdland Metrics

Alonso's first two months in Baltimore look underwhelming on the surface, but elite contact quality, a widening xwOBA gap, and unmistakable clubhouse leadership tell a different story.

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🚨 New page on our site! 1) Who's hot in the O's lineup? Who's cold? 2) 14-day, 30-day production breakdowns 3) Batting quality and luck breakdowns 4) Deep dive into platoon splits All of this and more in our new batter ledger: (data updated daily)👇 birdlandmetrics.com/visualizatio...

The O’s recorded their 2nd highest season total in hits tonight (14). Notables: Alonso: 1-3, HR, 4 RBIs Gunnar: 3-5, 2 singles, 1 double Holliday: 2-3, HR, 1 single 3 out of 4 panes lit in gold tonight on the warehouse window: birdlandmetrics.com/visualizations/warehouse

Samuel Basallo carried a .384 BA over 20 games (77 PAs) from 4/20-5/17 At 21y, 281d old, he became the 7th Oriole ever to have a .384+ BA over any 20G span at that age or younger The other six: Brooks Robinson (HOF) Eddie Murray (HOF) Manny Machado (7x AS) Vern Stephens (7x AS) Bob Hale Dick Kokos

Samuel Basallo has produced offense 83% better than the league-average hitter over the past 30 days with a 183 wRC+. This ranks 4th among all hitters in baseball with at least 80 PAs since April 20th. That’s a scary-good stretch from the 21-year-old since mid-April.

Another tough loss. The O’s went 0-for-5 with RISP tonight, with 2 Ks. They now own MLB’s highest K rate with RISP (~26%), while also ranking top 10 in: • Grounding into double plays • % solo HRs Ward hit a solo HR tonight and they GIDPs 2 more times. Just more fuel for a struggling offense.

A brutal 3-start stretch for Trevor Rogers He joins Kodai Senga as the only other pitcher in MLB this season to allow 16+ earned runs in fewer than 10 innings pitched Senga allowed 16 ER in 8.1 IP back in April Rogers has now allowed 16 ER over 9.1 IP across his last 3 starts

The O's just took a big series vs. the Yanks! With a 3-2 record since our last update, the O's homestand ended well and their playoff odds have ticked up for the first time in weeks. Can they keep the momentum going vs. the Nats? WK 7 model update: birdlandmetrics.com/articles/pla...

Orioles Playoff Outlook: Week-by-Week — Birdland Metrics

Weekly Orioles playoff projection updates powered by ELO modeling: tracking Baltimore's odds, division standings, and wild card race throughout the 2026 season.

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Right now, the O's are 20-24 and 1.5 games out of a wild card spot. That's possible because the 2026 American League has the 3rd-most compressed middle in 50 years: only 1983 and 2011 had a tighter pack. What does that mean for Baltimore? New article: birdlandmetrics.com/articles/al-...

2026 AL Standings: Historic Logjam Has 8 Teams Within 2 Wins — Birdland Metrics

Eight of 15 AL teams sit within two wins of each other through 42 games, the third-tightest early-season logjam in 50 years. Here's what history says happens next.

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Today marked the 9th time in Orioles history (since 1954) the team has held the Yankees to fewer than 2 hits in a game. 1st time since Daniel Cabrera tossed a complete-game gem on Sept. 28, 2006.

The O’s blank the Yanks! All four window panes light up gold today. Bradish's shutout start anchored a complete team performance with strong grades in BAT, FLD, and BP. This is just the 5th "perfect" window of '26 Check out the rest of the game grades👇 birdlandmetrics.com/visualizations/warehouse