Blind Squirrel Macro
@blindsquirrel.bsky.social
Macro for Civilians. Hunting for acorns in the market for over 30 years. Not anon. Own my views. Get more ruminations of a slightly snarky rodent at www.blindsquirrelmacro.com or at https://youtube.com/@benny_squirrel?si=zcKdZtcvnBTXnzaU on YouTube
AI is macro. We have to deal with the impact of capex financing on inflation and the UST curve way before we get to find out whether or not a productivity miracle is upon us. More at 7.30pm EST Saturday via www.blindsquirrelmac...
open.substack.com/pub/arcadian...
Do Hyperscalers Break Duration Hedges?
This rodent tries to 'red team' his antipathy towards bonds. The 🐿️'s 'Monday' Morning Notes. Year 4; Week 30 of 2026.
open.substack.com
Blind Squirrel Macro@blindsquirrel.bsky.social · 5d agoWhen my friend Kev Muir - a long-time “bond Grizzly” - is sniffing an opportunity in long duration fixed (on the long side!) at the same time that Lacy Hunt - a four-decade bond bull - calls time on the trade of his career, the 🐿️ goes on high alert. It’s ‘disturbance in the Force’ time. 1/2
AI is macro. We have to deal with the impact of capex financing on inflation and the UST curve way before we get to find out whether or not a productivity miracle is upon us. More at 7.30pm EST Saturday via www.blindsquirrelmac...
When my friend Kev Muir - a long-time “bond Grizzly” - is sniffing an opportunity in long duration fixed (on the long side!) at the same time that Lacy Hunt - a four-decade bond bull - calls time on the trade of his career, the 🐿️ goes on high alert. It’s ‘disturbance in the Force’ time. 1/2
open.substack.com/pub/arcadian...
The Bosphorus Bid
The 🐿️ is revisiting old hunting grounds - and liking what he sees. The 🐿️'s 'Monday' Morning Notes. Year 4; Week 29 of 2026.
open.substack.com
Blind Squirrel Macro@blindsquirrel.bsky.social · 2w agoBeing an investment banker in emerging markets in the mid-1990s had a lot to be said for it. Doing deals in a hot asset class and business trips to exotic places with limited mobile phone roaming and the hotel business center fax machine as the only link with accountability (i.e. the office). 1/2
Being an investment banker in emerging markets in the mid-1990s had a lot to be said for it. Doing deals in a hot asset class and business trips to exotic places with limited mobile phone roaming and the hotel business center fax machine as the only link with accountability (i.e. the office). 1/2
19th Century Britain lost 70% of its Railway stocks in a year!! Full show: youtu.be/mi4bOlBIjF8 @BenBrey
It's always the 3rd owners of equity in major infrastructure that make the money. Can the same be said for boxes of GPUs?? Full show: youtu.be/mi4bOlBIjF8 @BenBrey
Who is buying 'The Binface Bottom'? Full show: youtu.be/mi4bOlBIjF8 @BenBrey
Monday sees Andy “we’ve got to get beyond this thing of being in hock to the bond market” Burnham enter No. 10 unopposed. 3 weeks later, we get to see if the populist fever dream has hit an absurd and terminal climax in the form of Farage being vanquished in the Clacton by-election…by a bin. 1/3
Never miss a Sunday Show! Japan’s savings empire, Hynix’s monster ADR, China’s new “collar” on crude, and why most AI capex stories ignore real ROI. Tune in! youtu.be/2UWCfVoVpV4?...
Clock is Ticking on AI ROI....
YouTube video by Benny & The Squirrel
youtu.be
Private Credit: From sexy high growth ---> Risk Management Exercise Full show: youtu.be/wVPU4kyzp0Y... @BenBrey
Charlie reckons that ECM/DCM/M&A revs have peaked @BenBrey Full show: youtu.be/wVPU4kyzp0Y...
Do the media guys always spoil the party @BenBrey? Full show at: youtu.be/wVPU4kyzp0Y...
The market is waking up to the fact that AI is fast becoming a commodity @BenBrey 1/2
The Fed is trapped by the PE/PC/AI funding complex @BenBrey 1/2
Avoid lazy analogies ("the Amazon of", "the Google of") in China tech. @benbrey 1/2
Can China leapfrog the West in chip technology? The ICE / EV analog. @benbrey 1/2
Why AI might finally unlock B2B in China @BenBrey 1/2
Happy Brexit Day! Ten years later we can happily conclude that the U.K. is only a bit poorer than it would have been, food supplies have been “adequate”, it isn’t at outright war with its neighbours, and Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland haven’t seceded yet. A smashing success, really.
The UK is eyeing up it 6th PM in a decade. Brexit was an act of economic self-harm sold by charlatans. Populists never have answers. Follow the money. Always. Ht @ledbydonkeys.org
I find myself explaining this to a lot of people. It's complicated.
Wen pitchforks? @benbrey @Viewfromthepeak 1/2