Give me a fucking break @LinkedIn. Your requirement to pay for boost to get posts seen now means the feed is mostly shadow ads and glossy videos from Anthropic. Shitification at its best.

Every time I hear an allocator nitpick index replication tracking error, I can't help but say "what about your single manager tracking error?!"

Can we all accept that allocators got duped into believing the "factor neutral" and "idio" myths, when in reality most of these multistrats are just high-fee momo traders with some accounting tricks. h/t @nishantkumar07

The most important chart folks aren't focused on right now. h/t @Rory_Johnston What do you do when the reroute of the reroute is now under pressure?

The most comprehensive wage growth data released late last week showed continued slowing, and further confirmed the surge in household spending increasingly financed by dissaving.

This is going to put the Jevons paradox true believers to the test. www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Japan has a near 5% of GDP current account surplus. Near neutral on trade, with huge investment income that is usually automatically reinvested. A less structural surplus than might seem on the surface.

There is no yen carry trade these days. So while the intervention may mark a shift in the direction of JPY, we are unlikely to see the surge in past appreciation periods.

Really enjoyed getting together with @null for On the Tape earlier this week. Fed, Hormuz, 3% real yields, and Vanguard's 400bps fee illiquid fund all made the agenda. Check it out! youtu.be/zIjXBhVWqX8?...

Bob Elliott: TIPS For Making Money In These Markets

Learn more about Unlimited ETFs: https://unlimitedetfs.com/ Checkout Bob's Substack: https://bobeunlimited.substack.com/ Checkout WAWD on Substack:…

youtu.be

It's a common misconception among investors that hedge funds don't produce much alpha. That isn't right. They produce plenty of it and keep it for themselves. Cut the fees and increase cash efficiency and there is plenty to go around.

The AI Investment Impact Myth Continues While everyone hopes the Situational Awareness washout marks a bottom in the Semi/AI selloff, the macro data released yesterday calls into question the whole growth & profit boom attributed to AI. bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/the-ai-inv...

The AI Investment Impact Myth Continues

While everyone hopes the Situational Awareness washout marks a bottom in the Semi/AI selloff, the macro data released yesterday calls into question the whole growth & profit boom attributed to AI.

bobeunlimited.substack.com

Today is another reminder that allocators think they can find the next hedge fund genius that will outperform their peers. Trouble is there is overwhelming evidence of no reliable outperformance persistence beyond random chance and accounting tricks. unlimitedfunds.com/elusive-pers...

Elusive Persistence - Unlimited Funds

Last year, we wrote a piece evaluating hedge funds’ performance persistence and its implications on allocators' ability to select managers. Our conclusion was straightforward: individual hedge fund…

unlimitedfunds.com

Warsh’s Lazy Hold If the Fed sits around in wait and see mode on the hikes needed to cool the equity mania and fight persistently above-target inflation, yesterday showed the long end is going to do it for them. bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/warshs-laz...

Warsh’s Lazy Hold

If the Fed sits around in wait and see mode on the hikes needed to cool the equity mania and fight persistently above-target inflation, yesterday showed the long end is going to do it for them.

bobeunlimited.substack.com

TLT and SPY are down roughly the same today are Warsh's comments. That's mechanical. Higher discount rates directly drag on stock prices (through lower discounted future earnings). But it *should* be worse for stocks b/c higher rates drag on growth. That part isn't priced yet.

Rotation Ain’t Resilience While pundits read the recent market action as a sign the market can withstand reversal of the AI/Semi mania, it’s much more likely a sign of short covering flows than longer-term resilience. bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/rotation-a...

Rotation Ain’t Resilience

While pundits read the recent market action as a sign the market can withstand reversal of the AI/Semi mania, it’s much more likely a sign of short covering flows than longer-term resilience.

bobeunlimited.substack.com

Gold is up 22% over the last year, better than stocks 17% and bonds 3%. And yet most who will read this are up to their eyeballs in stocks & bonds and don't hold a lick of gold.

Bonds Don’t Have A Supply Problem US duration supply is normal as weak HH & corp borrowing offsets high gov deficits, which means when the extraordinary equity bid ends, bonds may be more diversifying than most expect. bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/bonds-dont...

Bonds Don’t Have A Supply Problem

US duration supply is normal as weak HH & corp borrowing offsets high gov deficits, which means when the extraordinary equity bid ends, bonds may be more diversifying than most expect.

bobeunlimited.substack.com

These KKR folks think picking is the solution to finding a great buyout manager when there is a much easier solution. Cut the fees to 95bps, and you've got a top quartile manager. Trouble is these folks would have to accept that they add little value...

Still seeing pretty strong gold demand from China. www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

While you all focus on the US earnings season you are missing the surge in upward earnings revisions in Europe... www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Still A Long Road To Normalization De-escalation signs are crushing short-dated oil prices as we start the week, but there is still a long way to go with limited Hormuz transits, the Bab-el-Mandeb closing and Chinese demand picking up. bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/still-a-lo...

Still A Long Road To Normalization

De-escalation signs are crushing short-dated oil prices as we start the week, but there is still a long way to go with limited Hormuz transits, the Bab-el-Mandeb closing and Chinese demand picking up.

bobeunlimited.substack.com

Gold has held up pretty well this month despite surging real rates.

Interesting chart from @bcaresearch c/o @thedailyshot

While investors today obsessively focus on momo, eventually the pricing gets so extreme an extraordinary outcome is priced as certainty. Perspective on that pricing in this weeks free blog app piece: bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/equities-b...

A sign of the times. And this was before Google.

Old enough to remember certain Sinophiles dead set that China was going to crush the US economy over time. And the anger expressed when I dare not agree.

Amazed that my tongue-in-cheek nod to the BTFD crowd calling TIPS a "generational buying opportunity" has gotten so much traction. Even my retired uncle asked me about it this morning after seeing this nicely done @MarketWatch article covering it! www.marketwatch.com/story/a-gene...

It Takes Two To TACO (Or is it Three?) Political betting markets are increasingly expecting supply disruption related to the Iran war to continue for some time while the oil curve prices a relatively swift resolution ahead. bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/it-takes-t...

It Takes Two To TACO (Or is it Three?)

Political betting markets are increasingly expecting supply disruption related to the Iran war to continue for some time while the oil curve prices a relatively swift resolution ahead.

bobeunlimited.substack.com

In what world is Blackstone's pitch of "premium returns" of their new WVB funds possibly in line with @FINRA standards for retail marketing of a 40-act product? Maybe it works ripping off rich folks, but its obviously chock full of retail violations. www.blackstone.com/news/press/w...

Update doesn't look so good for household spending in the second half. h/t @thedailyshot