Jacinta Allan may have won a rank and file ballot if she’d contested, but would she have won with a big enough margin to offset her defeat in the caucus vote? Seems like a tall order

Vic Labor rules mean a leadership contest won’t be resolved in one meeting. Nominations will be open for three days, unless 80% of the caucus agree to shorten it to a 24 hour period. It means Jacinta Allan could be removed Tuesday, but Ben Carroll not elected until Wednesday

Jacinta Allan may intend to contest a leadership contest, but would she be able to get the required nominations from 20% of caucus members? If a spill motion has passed it seems unlikely you’d find that many MPs who think a weeks long contest is a good idea

The ABC understands factional convenors from both the right and left of Victorian Labor’s party room have agreed that Premier Jacinta Allan no longer has the support of a majority of caucus.

Victorian premier facing leadership challenge this week

Factional convenors from both the right and left of the party room met on Sunday night to discuss whether Jacinta Allan still had the support of a majority of caucus. The ABC understands they agreed…

abc.net.au

We’ve launched our guide to the Secret Harbour by-election, which will be held on August 29. Candidate nominations close next Tuesday www.abc.net.au/news/electio...

Secret Harbour By-election 2026

Overview of the Secret Harbour electorate in the Secret Harbour by-election 2026

abc.net.au

The Allan govt may be about to follow in the footsteps of every other state, abolish group voting tickets, and put voters in full control of preferences. If it doesn’t, expect November’s ballot to be stacked with tricks. Here’s a look at some of them. www.abc.net.au/news/2026-07...

The new political parties hoping to deceive 'useful idiots' in Victoria

New political parties are seeking to exploit Victoria's anachronistic electoral system in the upper house to harvest voters' preferences and funnel them wherever they please.

abc.net.au

The Age reports that the Vic govt is planning to abolish group voting tickets, at essentially the last minute before the election. Vic is the last place in the country still using this system in its upper house.

Election overhaul to hurt crossbenchers and aid One Nation

Victoria’s upper house is likely to be different after November, as the government moves to abolish “preference-whispering”.

theage.com.au

Nigel Farage is quitting British parliament, sparking a by-election in his seat, in which the first declared candidate is Nigel Farage

WA Labor minister Paul Papalia is retiring after 19yrs as member for Secret Harbour. He retained the seat with an 11.5% margin in the 2025 state election. One Nation contested ~40 seats last election and had one of its better results (8.4%) in this seat www.abc.net.au/news/2026-07...

By-election to follow minister's resignation amid One Nation surge

WA Labor stalwart and senior state cabinet minister Paul Papalia has announced he is quitting politics after nearly two decades, triggering a by-election in his southern Perth seat.

abc.net.au

Not fully logging off, but definitely logging in less as I take some leave in the gap between elections, before I turn my focus to elections in the two most populous states in November and March

I leave the country for eight hours and a new political party gets announced! www.abc.net.au/news/2026-06...

Teals Allegra Spender and Zali Steggall confirm plan to form new party

The teal independents have confirmed a plan to form a new political party, Community Strong Australia, but are yet to convince any of their crossbench colleagues to join what they call a "responsible…

abc.net.au

This is an interesting alignment of votes in SA's lower house for Family First MLC Sarah Game's abortion bill There were 9 votes in favour: all 4 One Nation MPs + the Premier, Treasurer, Police Minister, Opposition Leader, and the Shadow Infrastructure Minister

South Australian MLC Sarah Game is winding up the Sarah Game Fair Go for Australians party that she started after leaving One Nation and is now joining Family First www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/south-a...

The SA government will introduce a bill to delay local government elections to April (instead of November) www.premier.sa.gov.au/media-releas...

Ensuring the integrity of council elections

You are here:

premier.sa.gov.au

South Australia’s Electoral Commissioner Mick Sherry has resigned. He has been on personal leave since the state election and Voice election, which was beset by problems including misplaced ballots and inadequate polling booth staff.

Roy Morgan have defined a set of customer personas/market segments using "deep psychographic insights" tag yourself I'm "Young and Platinum", whatever that means

More party registration news in Victoria: The “End Mass Immigration - Reform AU” party, a party that was last year called the “Companions and Pets Party”, is now changing its ballot paper name to the “Christian Alliance Party”

The AEC has published detailed preference flow data from the Farrer by-election. This table shows definitively how the first preference votes for each candidate flowed between One Nation and Michelle Milthorpe.

Extraordinarily, SA's electoral commission has asked for November's local government elections to be delayed until next year! www.indailysa.com.au/news/just-in...

Voting boss calls for shock delay to council elections - News | InDaily, Inside South Australia

The beleaguered Electoral Commission of South Australia wants to push out local council elections by half a year.

indailysa.com.au

One Nation's David Farley will be formally declared the winner of the Farrer by-election on Thursday, and we have our first look at the full distribution of preferences in the seat. caseybriggs.com/the-count-is...

I understand there are at most ~2,000 postal votes to be added in Stafford (not all of these will actually be returned to the electoral commission). Not enough runway for the LNP to turn the margin around.

The addition of remaining postal votes in Stafford is likely to reduce the Labor margin, but there would need to be a *lot* of them to see the LNP win, and no one thinks there are enough out there. Labor has won Stafford.

Labor is likely to retain Stafford. There has been a 4.1 per cent swing against Labor with additional postal votes still to be counted. But for the LNP to win from here, those postal votes would need to break very strongly in its favour. That is very unlikely to happen.

LNP's David Crisafulli: "I do think we're going to fall agonisingly short" in Stafford I agree, Labor is heading toward victory after a rollercoaster count tonight. Tonight's final booth may be enough to put the result beyond doubt. But it is tighter than Labor would have wanted

Labor won the Stafford Early Voting Centre with 51.1 per cent after preferences, and a 2.7 per cent swing against them. That booth gives Labor a bigger lead in this race, with one more early voting centre still to come tonight.

On the raw preference count the LNP currently leads Labor in Stafford by 17 votes. I am trying to make a projection of the result in a few different ways, and my estimates are all hovering with Labor somewhere between 49.5-51%. That is to say, it's close!

We have some early votes in now, the Stafford Early Voting Centre has reported primary votes. The swing on that booth is *looking* a few points better for Labor than we saw on the election day vote.

The addition of postals has given Labor a boost. We're now projecting Labor on a primary around 30%, the LNP just shy of 40% If you apply pref flows we're seeing so far to the remaining primaries, you end up with a dead heat - almost exactly 50-50 We need to see some early votes

...and just as I posted that last post, we got a preference count in Chermside South which is Labor's worst swing so far at -11.8 percentage points

The primary vote is bad news for Labor. On the current (still early) count we're projecting Labor below 30 per cent, and the LNP above 40 per cent. But we also have preference counts in 2 booths that make the race look quite tight, with a swing to the LNP of around 4-5 per cent