UNSW Climate Change Research Centre
@ccrc.bsky.social
A multi-disciplinary research group based at UNSW, Australia. Affiliated to @21stcenturyweather.bsky.social and @antarcticsciaus.bsky.social CCRC houses research expertise in the key areas of Earth's climate: atmospheric, oceanic & terrestrial processes
El Niño has a big impact on Australia's weather—but much less impact on the overall electricity grid than you might expect. Our new paper explains why.
Limited influence of climate modes of variability on residual load in Australia's electricity grid
Limited influence of climate modes of variability on residual load in Australia's electricity grid, Richardson, Doug, Hobeichi, Sanaa, Pitman, Andy J
iopscience.iop.org
🌩️ New research investigates severe wind gusts from convective storms. Results show that sub-kilometer-scale models are needed to capture the downdrafts driving the strongest gusts, and introduce the "shallow release hypothesis." Read more: doi.org/10.1016/j.wa...
🌊 New research explores imposter syndrome in the marine science community, sharing researchers' experiences and identifying ways to build a more supportive and inclusive research culture.
Understanding and Managing Imposter Phenomenon Within the Marine Sciences: Insights From 314 Years of Cumulative Experience | Commentary | Ocean and Society
Chris Cvitanovic, Tracy Ainsworth, Annette Breckwoldt, Amy Diedrich, Michael Fabinyi, Priscila Lopes, Albert Norström, Stefan Partelow, Gretta Pecl, Jerneja Penca, Vitor Renck, Alex Sen Gupta, Jan M. ...
cogitatiopress.com
Congrats to Michael Eabry et al. on a paper finding no evidence that Zonal Wave 3 affects total Antarctic sea ice area: regional ice effects from alternating equatorward and poleward wind anomalies mostly cancel out when integrated over the ice‐edge.
Does Zonal Wave 3 Affect Total Antarctic Sea Ice Area?
We find no clear evidence that Zonal Wave 3 meaningfully influences overall Antarctic SIA Regional effects on sea ice from alternating equatorward and poleward wind anomalies generally cancel out...
dx.doi.org
New research from CCRC uses machine learning to map lightning occurrence across NSW. The study shows that terrain and geospatial characteristics alone capture meaningful lightning patterns, and also examines dry lightning—a key driver of wildfire risk.
Machine learning-based spatial modelling of lightning occurrence informed by terrain characteristics
Machine learning-based spatial modelling of lightning occurrence informed by terrain characteristics, Rahmani, Sima, Evans, Jason P, Sharples, Jason
doi.org
New research from CCRC demonstrates a stable hybrid climate model with machine-learned atmospheric convection. The coupled atmosphere–ocean–land model runs for over a decade with minimal climate drift, highlighting the potential of hybrid physics–ML approaches for Earth system modelling.
The Benefits of Lateral Connections: Toward a Stable Neural Network Surrogate for Climate Model Parameterization
Abstract Numerous studies have explored the use of neural networks trained to serve as surrogates for predicting subgrid physical processes in atmospheric models solving physical equations. Here, we e...
doi.org
The world's oceans have just recorded their hottest June on record—and with El Niño developing, even more heat may be on the way. 🌊🌡️ Why does this matter? Warmer oceans fuel marine heatwaves, reshape weather patterns, and increase the risk of extreme events worldwide.
The world’s oceans are the hottest on record for June – and El Niño is set to turn up the heat even more
More than 90% of the heat trapped by greenhouses goes into the ocean. But what happens in the oceans doesn’t stay there.
theconversation.com
A potential 2026-27 El Niño is drawing attention, but its impacts may depend strongly on its type. Our new JCLI paper revisits how Eastern Pacific and Central Pacific ENSO events affect Australian spring rainfall and explores the physical mechanisms behind those different rainfall patterns.
Diverse Impacts of Eastern Pacific and Central Pacific ENSO on Australian Spring Rainfall and Associated Southern Hemisphere Large-scale Circulation
Abstract Despite extensive research on the Eastern Pacific (EP) and Central Pacific (CP) El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) impacts on Australia’s climate, the physical mechanisms by which these two ...
doi.org
As Indonesia builds its new capital, how will urbanization affect heatwave risk? Using high-resolution simulations, our researchers found that urbanization increases temperatures in IKN, but humidity changes can partly offset heat stress impacts. Climate-informed urban planning is essential.
Will urbanization amplify heatwave risk in Indonesia’s new capital city?
Will urbanization amplify heatwave risk in Indonesia’s new capital city?, Fitria, Ressy, Lopez-Bravo, Clemente, Pitman, Andy J, Evans, Jason P, Nazarian, Negin
doi.org
In a new paper led by Valentina Ortiz Guzmán, CCRC researchers show that stalling weather systems preferentially occur close to the east coast of every continent. They move slowly and produce extreme rainfall, increasing large-scale flood risks along these coasts.
Global Hotspots of Stalling Extratropical Cyclones
This paper defines a "stalling" type of weather system. It is defined as extratropical cyclone which remains near-stationary and produces extreme rainfall. This definition selects weather systems whic...
link.growkudos.com
Where will hail risk increase in a warmer world? A new Nature Climate Change study by CCRC & ICRR researchers finds hail-prone conditions are shifting poleward, with winter hail risk projected to increase in some agricultural regions.
Shifting hail hazard under global warming and effects on crop hail risk - Nature Climate Change
How hailstorms change with warming is not well understood. Here the authors use global projections with different hail proxies to show that hail-prone conditions shift polewards under warming, also sh...
nature.com
How do cities influence rainfall? A recent study by Shankar Sharma, Jason Evans, and Andy Pitman, now featured in @aunz.theconversation.com, used more than two decades of satellite observations across major global cities to investigate how urbanisation affects rainfall patterns.++
Cities are making it rain more – but not as much as scientists thought
A new study shows it does rain more in cities, but the trend over time has been exaggerated by changes in satellites.
theconversation.com
In a new study published by @ioppublishing.bsky.social, Senior Lecturer @drjucker.bsky.social shows that estimating future rainfall increase by using a static 7% per degree warming might considerably underestimate rainfall produced by extratropical weather systems. @nsw-bnhrc.bsky.social
Temperature scaling of rainfall from weather systems
Temperature regulates the amount of water vapour in the atmosphere. Clouds produce rainfall by converting water vapour into liquid rain drops, thus linking surface temperatures to rainfall amounts. Te...
link.growkudos.com
📢New paper Do satellite precipitation datasets detect urban rainfall signals? Yes In a new study, CCRC researcher Shankar Sharma, @jasonpevans.bsky.social, Andy Pitman and Ali Behrangi analysed IMERG satellite rainfall data across 15 global cities. ++ Read more: iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1...
Urban rainfall trends in IMERG datasets
Urban rainfall trends in IMERG datasets, Sharma, Shankar, Evans, Jason P, Pitman, Andy J, Behrangi, Ali
iopscience.iop.org
A new study from CCRC shows that anomalously warm sea surface temperatures along the East Australian Current intensified the 2022 extreme rainfall event in eastern Australia by enhancing moisture supply, strengthening onshore flow, and influencing the position of coastal low-pressure systems.
Effects of high local sea surface temperature on the extreme rainfall over the eastern coast of Australia in February 2022 - Theoretical and Applied Climatology
Theoretical and Applied Climatology - Record-breaking extreme rainfall impacted Australia’s east coast from February to April 2022, causing severe flooding across the region. To explore the...
doi.org
Greater Sydney is experiencing faster increases in short-duration extreme rainfall (5–10 min) than hourly events. Climate projections suggest up to a 125% rise in extremes by late century under SSP370, increasing flash flood risks for urban areas.
Observed and projected increases in short-duration extreme precipitation under climate change over Greater Sydney
Observed and projected increases in short-duration extreme precipitation under climate change over Greater Sydney, Khadke, Leena, Evans, Jason P, Kim, Youngil, Virgilio, Giovanni Di, Kala, Jatin
iopscience.iop.org
Congratulations to Mike on submitting his PhD thesis, “Linking Southern Hemisphere Circulation to Antarctic Sea Ice Variability and Extremes”! His research explores how atmospheric circulation patterns influenced Antarctic sea ice variability, including the extreme 2016 sea ice decline.
🌊 New episode of Lab Notes just dropped — exploring the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), why it matters for Earth’s climate, and what could happen if it slows down further.
Lab Notes: What happens if a major ocean current … stops? - ABC listen
The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is a vast current that helps move water and energy right around our planet, from top to bottom. Scientists say it is slowing down — and might sto...
abc.net.au
New paper from CCRC researchers in Nature. Only ~13% of global land has sufficient rain gauge coverage, leaving many high-risk regions under-monitored. Targeted investment in observations is critical for climate risk planning and water security.
Precipitation observing network gaps limit climate change impact assessment - Nature
At present, only 13.4% of the global land surface meets the World Meteorological Organization requirements for annual precipitation monitoring.
nature.com
A new paper from @dresearchdson.bsky.social modeled Australia’s energy grid with 84 years of data and found winter is emerging as the season of greatest electricity supply risk. Variability in wind means some winters could be challenging due to prolonged low generation.
Wind power growth drives winter risk and supply-dominated variability in Australia’s energy system
Wind power growth drives winter risk and supply-dominated variability in Australia’s energy system, Richardson, Doug, McConnell, Dylan, Pitman, Andrew J, Hobeichi, Sanaa
iopscience.iop.org
New research from CCRC and collaborators at the Met Office, published in Climate Dynamics. How reliably can Kelvin waves and the MJO be detected in short datasets? Wavelet methods outperform traditional FFT approaches. @unswbees.bsky.social @21stcenturyweather.bsky.social @metoffice.gov.uk
The evaluation of convectively coupled waves in limited-length datasets - Climate Dynamics
Climate Dynamics - Organised tropical convection is strongly influenced by intraseasonal convectively coupled waves (CCWs), particularly Kelvin waves and the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO)....
doi.org
CCRC’s Senior Research Fellow @drjucker.bsky.social and Prof. Julie Arblaster from Monash Uni. talk about all things stratosphere in the newest episode of the @21st century weather Totally Cooked podcast. There are rockets,volcanoes, and penguins! Hear now at 21centuryweather.org.au/engage/total...
Live stratosphere special: Totally Cooked podcast
Join the Totally Cooked team and guest experts to explore the stratosphere, ozone, and jet stream—and how they shape our weather and climate.
21centuryweather.org.au
Researchers from our centre are participating in the CMIP Community Workshop 2026 in Kyoto. Prof. Lisa, Prof. @jasonpevans.bsky.social, Research Fellow Joaquin, and former fellows @pal14himadri.bsky.social & Loan are engaging with the global community on CMIP6 insights and the future of CMIP7.
A recent study by Huazhen,Andréa,Christine,and Ghyslaine classifies CMIP6 large ensembles into weaker, unchanged, and stronger ENSO futures. El Niño rainfall varies by pathway, but Dec–May La Niña rainfall increases across all scenarios. Congrats! Full read: journals.ametsoc.org/view/journal...
Paper 🚨 Congratulations to Sibyl Cheng, Lisa V. Alexander, Steven Sherwood, and Joaquin E. Blanco. This new paper shows the substantial differences in both climatology and trends of ocean rainfall using multiple satellite and reanalysis datasets from the FROGS database (2001–2020). ++ Details ⬇️
journals.ametsoc.org
📢 🌍 New paper! CCRC researchers Joaquín E. Blanco, Lisa V. Alexander and Steven Siems, have published a new study, which provides a comprehensive daily-scale evaluation (2000–2014) of gridded precipitation over the Southern Ocean, comparing satellite products, reanalyses, and CMIP6 models. ++ ⬇️
agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com
🚨! This new study led by @jdcp93.bsky.social shows how machine-learning models can benchmark complex process-based land-surface models. LSMs perform weakest during coinciding conditional extremes, yet ML models still learn successfully despite sparse training data in this climate space. Link ⬇️
Land surface model underperformance tied to specific meteorological conditions
Abstract. The exchange of carbon, water, and energy fluxes between the land and the atmosphere plays a vital role in shaping global change and extreme events. Yet our understanding of the theory of th...
bg.copernicus.org
Exciting news 🎉 Our CCRC scientist Andréa Taschetto and team have just released “Meteorology and Climate of the Southern Hemisphere” book, an updated edition of David Karoly’s 1998 monograph, published by Cambridge University Press. + Available at lnkd.in/g4SFsM9k www.cambridge.org/au/universit...
Meteorology and Climate of the Southern Hemisphere | Cambridge University Press & Assessment
cambridge.org
If you're interested in drought and AI, our PhD student Matt Grant and researcher Dr Sanaa Hobeichi have been featured in this UNSW Newsroom! It shows Australian droughts are lasting longer (especially SE & SW), with AI ++ www.unsw.edu.au/newsroom/new... #Drought #ClimateChange #AI #UNSWResearch
Study shows droughts lasting longer across Australia
UNSW research shows droughts are lasting longer in Australia, particularly in regions where most people live.
unsw.edu.au
🚨Paper Congrats to Mohammad, @neginnazarian.bsky.social, and Gloria on their new paper. They assessed passive thermal retrofits via energy modelling & operative temp analysis for extreme indoor conditions in Sydney high-rise social housing under future warming. Read paper: doi.org/10.1007/978-...
Evaluating Combined Passive Retrofits for a High-Rise Social Housing Under a Future Climate Condition
Global warming and urban heat pose severe risks to residents of often outdated, non-HVAC social housing in Australia, particularly vulnerable low-income households experiencing energy poverty. These r...
doi.org