Carnegie Politika
@ceip-politika.bsky.social
Latest insights from the top experts on Russia, Ukraine, and Eurasia, part of @carnegieendowment.org https://carnegieendowment.org/russia-eurasia
The security forces are targeting Arkady and Boris Rotenberg’s patronage network—and in Putin’s Russia, it’s extremely hard to stop a purge once it’s under way, writes Mikhail Komin.
Are Russia’s Influential Rotenberg Brothers Headed for a Fall?
The security forces are targeting Arkady and Boris Rotenberg’s patronage network—and in Putin’s Russia, it’s extremely hard to stop a purge once it’s under way.
carnegieendowment.org
Don't miss the latest Carnegie Politika podcast with @alexgabuev.bsky.social and Nate Reynolds, devoted to the future of transatlantic security following the recent NATO summit in Ankara.
What Is the Future of NATO?
Podcast host Alex Gabuev is joined by Nate Reynolds, a senior fellow at Carnegie’s Russia and Eurasia Program, to discuss transatlantic security and its future after the recent NATO summit in Ankara.
carnegieendowment.org
"Whether Moldova’s ruling party, PAS, can refocus on the unfinished business of state-building may ultimately prove more consequential for the country’s European future than the pace of its accession negotiations." Read Balázs Jarábik's article here.
Moldova’s Ruling Party PAS Must Graduate From Crisis Management to State Governance
Whether PAS can refocus on the unfinished business of state-building may ultimately prove more consequential for Moldova’s European future than the pace of its accession negotiations.
carnegieendowment.org
"Russia looks set to reap economic benefits from closer ties with Southeast Asian countries that are keen to find reliable energy suppliers and diversify trade ties." Read @alexgabuev.bsky.social's opinion here: carnegieendowment.org/russia-euras...
Iran War Fallout Gifts Putin Diplomatic Victory at ASEAN Summit
Russia looks set to reap economic benefits from closer ties with Southeast Asian countries that are keen to find reliable energy suppliers and diversify trade ties.
carnegieendowment.org
Ongoing uncertainty in the Middle East allows Moscow to both increase its influence in Tehran and continue to enjoy the financial windfall of higher oil prices, argues Nikita Smagin: carnegieendowment.org/russia-euras...
Simmering U.S.-Iran Conflict Is Moscow’s Ideal Outcome
Ongoing uncertainty in the Middle East allows Moscow to both increase its influence in Tehran and continue to enjoy the financial windfall of higher oil prices.
carnegieendowment.org
"If it proves impossible for the Russian authorities to avoid a gasoline deficit, the question then becomes how they will organize the distribution of a scarce resource." Read Sergey Vakulenko's article here: carnegieendowment.org/russia-euras...
Russian Oil Sector Battered but Not Broken by Ukrainian Air Attacks
If it proves impossible for the Russian authorities to avoid a gasoline deficit, the question then becomes how they will organize the distribution of a scarce resource.
carnegieendowment.org
Russia's ruling elite is a community of managers who are not subject to competition or public accountability. And the state is becoming an operating apparatus without any internal autonomy, argues Alexandra Prokopenko in her new paper.
Loyal but Powerless: The Downgrading of Russia’s Elite
The ruling elites in contemporary Russia are not a political class, but a community of managers who are not subject to competition or public accountability. The state is becoming an operating apparatu...
carnegieendowment.org
"The issue is not that Putin only has selective information at his disposal, but that the decision-making process consists of one person with an unshakeable vision of how the world works." Read Tatiana Stanovaya's insight here: carnegieendowment.org/russia-euras...
The World According to Putin: No Deal on Ukraine in Sight
The issue is not that the president only has selective information at his disposal, but that the decision-making process consists of one person with an unshakeable vision of how the world works.
carnegieendowment.org
"By fueling the arguments of both supporters and opponents of Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, Azerbaijan wants to ensure he is re-elected with a weaker mandate." Read Bashir Kitachaev's analysis here: carnegieendowment.org/russia-euras...
Who Does Azerbaijan Want to See Win Armenia’s Elections?
By fueling the arguments of both supporters and opponents of Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, Azerbaijan wants to ensure he is re-elected with a weaker mandate.
carnegieendowment.org
A high-profile disagreement over internet restrictions in Russia was never an existential threat to Putin—it was about elite groups protecting their interests, writes Alexandra Prokopenko: carnegieendowment.org/russia-euras...
Russia’s Elite Conflict Over Internet Restrictions Does Not Herald Regime Collapse
A much-discussed disagreement over internet restrictions in Russia was never an existential threat for Putin: It was about elite groups protecting their interests.
carnegieendowment.org
By reminding the world that Lukashenko is a threat to NATO and Ukraine, Kyiv is trying to return the focus to why the Belarusian regime needs to be contained rather than rewarded, argues Artyom Shraibman: carnegieendowment.org/russia-euras...
Is Belarus Really Set to Return to the Ukraine War?
By reminding the world that Lukashenko is a threat to NATO and Ukraine, Kyiv is trying to return the focus to why the Belarusian regime needs to be contained rather than rewarded.
carnegieendowment.org
"The demands of the Kremlin’s war in Ukraine, demographic problems, and public hostility toward Central Asians mean Russia does not have enough workers." Read Salavat Abylkalikov's analysis here: carnegieendowment.org/russia-euras...
Could Migrants From India and Africa Solve Russia’s Labor Shortage?
The demands of the Kremlin’s war in Ukraine, demographic problems, and public hostility toward Central Asians mean Russia does not have enough workers.
carnegieendowment.org
“The truth is that Japan’s government is seeking a degree of reengagement with Russia, but at a vastly reduced level than under Abe Shinzo. Most significantly, Japan has shown no willingness to ease sanctions.” Read James D.J. Brown’s analysis here: carnegieendowment.org/russia-euras...
Are Russia-Japan Relations Really Warming Up?
The truth is that Japan’s government is seeking a degree of reengagement but at a vastly reduced level than under Abe. Most significantly, Japan has shown no willingness to ease sanctions.
carnegieendowment.org
With no key agreement signed on the Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline, the window of opportunity for Russia may close if Chinese power generation becomes so green that new gas sources are no longer of any interest to Beijing, writes @alexgabuev.bsky.social: carnegieendowment.org/russia-euras...
Did Putin Return From China Empty-Handed?
With no key agreement signed on the Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline, there is a risk that the window of opportunity for Russia will close if Chinese power generation becomes so green that new gas sour...
carnegieendowment.org
Though Orban is gone, Putin can still count on some like-minded individuals in Central and Eastern Europe. However, they will seek to avoid open confrontation with EU institutions over Ukraine and their ties with Moscow, argues @dimitarbechev.bsky.social: carnegieendowment.org/russia-euras...
What Does Central Europe’s Post-Orban Russia Policy Look Like?
Though Orban is gone, Putin can still count on some like-minded individuals in Central and Eastern Europe. However, they will seek to avoid open confrontation with EU institutions over Ukraine and the...
carnegieendowment.org
Putin’s visit to Beijing, how China is navigating its relationship with Russia, and why there is still no deal on the Power of Siberia 2 pipeline: don't miss the latest Carnegie Politika podcast episode with @alexgabuev.bsky.social and Yanmei Xie.
After Putin’s Visit to China, What Next?
Podcast host Alex Gabuev is joined by Yanmei Xie, a senior associate fellow at Mercator Insitute for China Studies, to discuss Putin’s visit to Beijing, how China is navigating its relationship with R...
carnegieendowment.org
Azerbaijan’s relations with the EU appear to be going from strength to strength after a deep freeze following the military escalation in Karabakh in 2023 and Azerbaijan’s bitter fallout with several EU countries, writes Shujaat Ahmadzada.
Brussels and Baku Are Talking Again: What Next?
Azerbaijan’s relations with the EU appear to be going from strength to strength after several years in the deep freeze following the military escalation in Karabakh in 2023 and Azerbaijan’s bitter fal...
carnegieendowment.org
Governments in Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania want to ensure that a U.S. military withdrawal would not leave them dangerously exposed to a Russian attack, argues Sergejs Potapkins.
As Trump Threatens to Quit NATO, the Baltic States Are Playing for Time
Governments in Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania want to ensure that a U.S. military withdrawal would not leave them dangerously exposed to a Russian attack.
carnegieendowment.org
Is Tokyo ready to bring relations with Moscow out of the deep freeze and start buying Russian oil—or are these just rumors once again? Read Vladislav Pashchenko's new article.
Could the Iran War Push Japan to Restore Russian Oil Imports?
Tokyo would have to surmount a lot of obstacles—not least Western sanctions—if it wanted to return Russian oil imports to even modest pre-2022 volumes.
carnegieendowment.org
In Russia, the costs of air defense are being spread across the balance sheets of companies and regional governments, and have become an unregistered tax on revenue for businesses, argues Alexandra Prokopenko.
In Russia, Private Companies Have Been Left to Pick Up the Tab for Ukrainian Drone Attacks
The cost of air defense has become an unregistered tax on revenue for businesses. While military rents are consolidated in the federal budget, the costs of defense are being spread across the balance ...
carnegieendowment.org
Baku’s backing for Ukraine is less about confronting Russia than about quietly broadening the mix of partners upon which it relies, argues Zaur Shiriyev.
Azerbaijan Looks to Tap Ukraine’s Military Expertise With Raft of New Deals
Baku’s backing for Ukraine is less about confronting Russia than about quietly broadening the mix of partners it relies on.
carnegieendowment.org
Something in the air has changed in Russia, and the Russian regime is now visibly motivated by fear, writes Alexander Baunov.
In Russia, the Public Mood Is Souring
The Russian regime is now visibly motivated by fear.
carnegieendowment.org
How might Russia potentially attack NATO territory, and how would the alliance react? Listen to the latest Carnegie Politika podcast with Alexander Gabuev, Carolina Drüten, and Joseph Verbovszky.
Is NATO Misreading Putin’s Risk Appetite?
Podcast host Alexander Gabuev is joined by Carolina Drüten, security correspondent for Die Welt, and Joseph Verbovszky, co-director of the German Wargaming Center, to discuss the first public wargame ...
carnegieendowment.org
The return of parliamentary politics in Ukraine reflects a shift from earlier expectations of a settlement and elections toward the reality of a prolonged war, argues Balázs Jarábik. carnegieendowment.org/russia-euras...
The Rada Reawakens: Ukraine’s Messy Politics Returns
The return of parliamentary politics reflects a broader shift from earlier expectations of a settlement and elections toward the reality of a prolonged war.
carnegieendowment.org
Armenia’s pro-Russia opposition is unlikely to be able to channel frustration with Pashinyan and the loss of Nagorno-Karabakh into an electoral victory. Read Mikayel Zolyan's analysis here:
Is Frustration With Armenia’s Pashinyan Enough to Bring the Pro-Russia Opposition to Power?
It’s true that many Armenians would vote for anyone just to be rid of Pashinyan, whom they blame for the loss of Nagorno-Karabakh, but the pro-Russia opposition is unlikely to be able to channel that ...
carnegieendowment.org
Moscow is providing drones and battlefield intelligence to Iran in an attempt to avoid a dangerous precedent in which it is squeezed out of Iran by the U.S. and Israel with no consequences, writes Nikita Smagin.
Russia Is Meddling for Meddling’s Sake in the Middle East
The Russian leadership wants to avoid a dangerous precedent in which it is squeezed out of Iran by the United States and Israel—and left powerless to respond in any meaningful way.
carnegieendowment.org
🎙️ PODCAST: @alexgabuev.bsky.social, Maksim Samorukov, and Balázs Jarábik discussed the changing tides in Europe after Viktor Orban’s defeat in Hungary and Rumen Radev’s win in Bulgaria and what they mean for Russia, Ukraine, and the EU. carnegieendowment.org/russia-euras...
Will There Be a New Pro-Russia Force in Europe After Orban?
Podcast host Alex Gabuev is joined by Balázs Jarábik, author of the Essential Ukraine newsletter and founder of Minority Report Consulting, and Maksim Samorukov, a fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasi...
carnegieendowment.org
Although Ukrainian strikes against Russian oil infrastructure have led to a noticeable decline in the physical volume of Russian oil exports, the rise in prices has more than made up for it, argues Sergey Vakulenko: carnegieendowment.org/russia-euras...
What’s Having More Impact on Russian Oil Export Revenues: Ukrainian Strikes or Rising Prices?
Although Ukrainian strikes have led to a noticeable decline in the physical volume of Russian oil exports, the rise in prices has more than made up for it.
carnegieendowment.org
"After four years of war, there is no one who can stand up to the security establishment, and President Vladimir Putin is increasingly passive." Tatiana Stanovaya on tensions within the Russian regime.
Is Opposition to Online Restrictions an Inflection Point for the Russian Regime?
After four years of war, there is no one who can stand up to the security establishment, and President Vladimir Putin is increasingly passive.
carnegieendowment.org
"The prospect of a total block on Russia’s most popular messaging app, Telegram, has sparked disagreement between the regime’s political managers and its security agencies." Read Andrey Pertsev's analysis here: carnegieendowment.org/russia-euras...
Blocking of Telegram App Sparks Rare Public Rift Among Russia’s Elites
The prospect of a total block on Russia’s most popular messaging app has sparked disagreement between the regime’s political managers and its security agencies.
carnegieendowment.org