Chatham House
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The Royal Institute of International Affairs - Chatham House. Independent thinking since 1920. Website🔗: chathamhouse.org Podcast🎙️: https://apple.co/45Bbbny Magazine: @theworldtoday.org Journal: @iajournal.bsky.social
The expectation that US-Israeli strikes would trigger regime collapse in Tehran – or force Iran's capitulation – was at best optimistic, and at worst wishful thinking masquerading as strategy.
The wishful thinking behind the war with Iran
Iran has survived war with the US by adapting its doctrine. The US must also change its thinking.
chathamhouse.org
"It's going to be very hard for any future president from any political party to forgo revenue. We shouldn't expect a complete and instant rollback." Heather Hurlburt discusses the long-term impact of Donald Trump's tariff policy on US domestic politics.
Ceuta is a Spanish enclave on the North African coast, forming the EU’s only land border with Africa. Morocco does not recognize Spanish sovereignty — and has long demanded Ceuta's return.
The Ceuta border crisis heaps pressure on Spain’s Sánchez government – and European unity
A surge of tens of thousands of migrants into Spain’s North African enclave strains relations with Morocco and EU members like Italy. It could seriously undermine the prime minister’s position.
chathamhouse.org
We’re pleased to celebrate the launch of the Chatham House Latin America Programme with a special drinks reception on 8 September. Building on the success of the Latin America Initiative, the programme will expand our research on transatlantic and strategic partnerships. 🔗 t.co/p3t5ilzfJl
The US has a critical role to play in putting its weight behind securing democratic elections in Venezuela — and in corralling the interim government, political opposition and key stakeholders.
Democratic elections in Venezuela won’t happen overnight – here’s the groundwork that’s needed first
As Venezuela adjusts to the post-Maduro era, calls for elections are growing among the opposition and foreign governments. The urgent question is how to act quickly enough to take advantage of the new...
chathamhouse.org
Ukraine’s air defence faces a crisis. Russia’s missile and drone production has outstripped Ukraine’s ability to deploy interceptors capable of shooting them down.
Ukraine needs help against Russian missiles now. What more can allies do?
Recent air defence pledges won’t deliver interceptors for years. Europe could help now by providing fighter cover, or by delivering more offensive weapons. Will it act?
chathamhouse.org
"Because of the changes to our tax structure and the skyrocketing levels of our deficit, it's going to be very hard for any future president from any political party to forgo revenue. We shouldn't expect a complete and instant rollback." Heather Hurlburt discusses Donald Trump's tariff policy.
Pressure on Hamas has been necessary and fully warranted. It remains so – both for Gaza’s stability and Israel’s security. But it must now be met with pressure on Israel too.
By agreeing to disarm, Hamas is trying to call Israel’s bluff in Gaza
The move may lead to more pressure on Israel to implement Trump’s 20-point plan, but both sides are likely to keep dragging out the process while avoiding any real commitments.
chathamhouse.org
Chatham House experts and researchers are available to follow on Bluesky. Connect with our experts here and follow them for their analysis on key international events and major global trends. ⬇️ go.bsky.app/UKHXrog
Even as it becomes even harder to do business in Russia amid Ukranian drone attacks, the country’s elites appear more dependent on – and wary of – the Kremlin that ever before.
Will Ukraine’s Wildberries attacks force Putin to the negotiating table?
Drone attacks strike at the bargain between Russia’s state and business. But Russia’s business elites seem more dependent on the Kremlin than ever.
chathamhouse.org
Israel is in urgent need of political renewal after years of paralysis and deepening division. Yet the months ahead are likely to witness one of the most toxic election campaigns in Israel’s history.
Israel’s general election will be like no other before
Netanyahu’s government has presided over unprecedented failure and polarization. Yet the opposition still struggles to articulate a genuine alternative.
chathamhouse.org
"Iran is seeking to preserve its leverage and that includes the Strait of Hormuz and secondly its nuclear programme which is unresolved." Sanam Vakil (@chmenap.bsky.social) joined Fareed Zakaria to discuss the latest developments in the the US-Iran ceasefire negotiations, via @cnn.com.
The UK is in the grip of a ‘firewave’, with fires affecting landscapes from the Cairngorms to the Suffolk coast. Nearly half of England is facing an ‘exceptionally serious’ drought.
Europe’s summer of fires: Burnham must centre climate adaptation in policies
The UK government should treat adaptation to the effects of climate change as a core organizing principle of both economic policy at home and foreign policy.
chathamhouse.org
In China, manufacturing is thriving while household spending is suffering. This reflects a deliberate strategy by Beijing to maximize its geopolitical leverage — with growth suffering as a result.
‘Structural divergence’ in China’s economy exposes a growing problem
Manufacturing is thriving while household spending is suffering. This seems to reflect a deliberate strategy by Beijing to maximize its geopolitical leverage. Growth suffers as a result.
chathamhouse.org
Ceuta is a Spanish enclave on the North African coast, forming the EU’s only land border with Africa. Morocco does not recognize Spanish sovereignty — and has long demanded Ceuta's return.
The Ceuta border crisis heaps pressure on Spain’s Sánchez government – and European unity
A surge of tens of thousands of migrants into Spain’s North African enclave strains relations with Morocco and EU members like Italy. It could seriously undermine the prime minister’s position.
chathamhouse.org
By calling Israel's bluff, Hamas's latest move could put external pressure on Israel in Gaza for the first time in many months. Read Julie Norman's (@chmenap.bsky.social) latest analysis on Gaza for Chatham House ⤵️
By agreeing to disarm, Hamas is trying to call Israel’s bluff in Gaza
The move may lead to more pressure on Israel to implement Trump’s 20-point plan, but both sides are likely to keep dragging out the process while avoiding any real commitments.
chathamhouse.org
"Iran is seeking to preserve its leverage and that includes the Strait of Hormuz and secondly its nuclear programme which is unresolved." Sanam Vakil (@chmenap.bsky.social) joined Fareed Zakaria to discuss the latest developments in the the US-Iran ceasefire negotiations, via @cnn.com.
Benjamin Netanyahu presided over unprecedented security failures on 7 October 2023 — and domestic political polarization. Israel's opposition however is struggling to articulate an alternative.
Israel’s general election will be like no other before
Netanyahu’s government has presided over unprecedented failure and polarization. Yet the opposition still struggles to articulate a genuine alternative.
chathamhouse.org
Dominic Perrottet, VP of International Affairs & US at BHP, shares how countries can best cooperate on access to critical minerals. A highlight from the Chatham House London Conference. Explore the conference and key discussions: 🔗 tinyurl.com/yftwn7bz 🎥 Additional videography: Alistair Wilson
Ukraine’s air defence faces a crisis. Russia’s missile and drone production has outstripped Ukraine’s ability to deploy interceptors capable of shooting them down.
Ukraine needs help against Russian missiles now. What more can allies do?
Recent air defence pledges won’t deliver interceptors for years. Europe could help now by providing fighter cover, or by delivering more offensive weapons. Will it act?
chathamhouse.org
The UK is in the grip of a ‘firewave’, with fires affecting landscapes from the Cairngorms to the Suffolk coast. Nearly half of England is facing an ‘exceptionally serious’ drought.
Europe’s summer of fires: Burnham must centre climate adaptation in policies
The UK government should treat adaptation to the effects of climate change as a core organizing principle of both economic policy at home and foreign policy.
chathamhouse.org
Many in Spain blame the Moroccan government for the crisis. Morocco has never publicly acknowledged using migration as an instrument of pressure against Spain.
The Ceuta border crisis heaps pressure on Spain’s Sánchez government – and European unity
A surge of tens of thousands of migrants into Spain’s North African enclave strains relations with Morocco and EU members like Italy. It could seriously undermine the prime minister’s position.
chathamhouse.org
Ukraine’s air defence faces a crisis. Russia’s missile and drone production has outstripped Ukraine’s ability to deploy interceptors capable of shooting them down.
Ukraine needs help against Russian missiles now. What more can allies do?
Recent air defence pledges won’t deliver interceptors for years. Europe could help now by providing fighter cover, or by delivering more offensive weapons. Will it act?
chathamhouse.org
Many in Spain blame the Moroccan government for the crisis. Morocco has never publicly acknowledged using migration as an instrument of pressure against Spain.
The Ceuta border crisis heaps pressure on Spain’s Sánchez government – and European unity
A surge of tens of thousands of migrants into Spain’s North African enclave strains relations with Morocco and EU members like Italy. It could seriously undermine the prime minister’s position.
chathamhouse.org
"The reality is the Iraqi government is against the attacks that come from its territory against Saudi Arabia. The Iraqi government wants to improve ties with Saudi Arabia but it cannot control its territory." Renad Mansour on the US-Saudi airstrikes against Iran-backed militias, via BBC News.
A surge of tens of thousands of migrants into Spain’s North African enclave strains relations with Morocco and EU members like Italy. It could seriously undermine the prime minister’s position.
The Ceuta border crisis heaps pressure on Spain’s Sánchez government – and European unity
A surge of tens of thousands of migrants into Spain’s North African enclave strains relations with Morocco and EU members like Italy. It could seriously undermine the prime minister’s position.
chathamhouse.org
Chatham House experts and researchers are available to follow on Bluesky. Connect with our experts here and follow them for their analysis on key international events and major global trends. ⬇️ go.bsky.app/UKHXrog
Podcast🎙️| If Ukraine is winning the war, why did Zelenskyy fire his defence minister? Our experts discuss what Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s defence leadership reshuffle means for Ukraine’s war strategy. Apple: apple.co/4500ugx Spotify: bit.ly/4w1ZVOp
If Ukraine is winning the war, why did Zelenskyy fire his defence minister?
In this week’s episode of Independent Thinking, our experts discuss what President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s reshuffle means for Ukraine’s war strategy.
chathamhouse.org
The expectation that US-Israeli military strikes would trigger regime collapse in Tehran – or force Iran's capitulation – was at best optimistic, and at worst wishful thinking masquerading as strategy.
The wishful thinking behind the war with Iran
Iran has survived war with the US by adapting its doctrine. The US must also change its thinking.
chathamhouse.org
The dismissal of Mykhailo Fedorov – the main behind Ukraine's successful drone campaign against Russia – has sparked protests across Ukraine and turned into a political crisis for Zelenskyy.
How the dismissal of Ukraine’s popular defence minister backfired for Zelenskyy
The dismissal of Mykhailo Fedorov – the man behind Ukraine’s successful drone campaign against Russia – has sparked protests across Ukraine and turned into a political crisis for Zelenskyy.
chathamhouse.org