Chris Oates

@chrisoates.bsky.social

Former state legislative candidate and political risk analyst. Breaking down what events in the world mean for Massachusetts. https://chrisoates.substack.com/

Diagnosing how Haley Stevens chose to torpedo her career, reputation, national standing will win someone a Pulitzer in a few years. Can’t wait for the book to come out. Nathan Fielder?

Tomorrow I'm writing about Super PAC spending in #mapoli. Here's a trivia question. Of the top 25 candidates with outside spending on them (support or oppose), for how many was that spending more than their own expenditures (2026 year to date, according to OCPF)

I know it’s not the main controversy of the Sydney Sweeney ad, but I’m struck that there’s a site called Novig that claims it’s a financial exchange and not a betting site. How the CFTC approved that is the real scandal.

One thing I don’t understand. Why are candidates running unopposed this year in #mapoli holding fundraisers for themselves when every Democratic dollar in this state should right now be going to Congressional swing seats?

The Elon Musk-Starshield story feels like it’ll be a huge story in 2027. It has all the elements. High profile actor. Immediately understandable. Reporters can ask who knew what when. Like Iran-Contra done by Bill Gates.

With Musk sabotaging Ukrainian Starlink, should blue states look for alternatives in their own emergency communications suppliers? Do we really think that he wouldn't cut off access if he felt like it if an AG went after him? Something that #mapoli should be thinking about.

I don't remember any other Administration referring to a Cabinet Secretary as [President's] Secretary in official press releases. Can anyone in political comms recall something similar?

Transportation Dept press releases with Trump as the first name everywhere

Great newsletter coming up tomorrow. One of the least important problems facing Massachusetts. Of all the issues voters care about, this isn’t one of them. But it is a window into one of the biggest.

I'm seeing arguments against Question 3 that basically amount to uncompetitive general elections are a good thing. The idea that it's bad for working class candidates because they'd have to campaign for more. Or that primaries create a pipeline for progressive groups.