I realized that I've never had a consistent routine for election night. Any suggestions?
Chris Oates
@chrisoates.bsky.social
Former state legislative candidate and political risk analyst. Breaking down what events in the world mean for Massachusetts. https://chrisoates.substack.com/
In 2022, MA voters did something transformative by passing Fair Share. Question 5 is an attempt by corporate lobby groups to undermine it. Vote no on 5.
Would El-Sayed be the only DPhil in Congress? (How Oxford calls its PhDs)
Go out and vote tomorrow! And let’s vote for an election system that can make November matter in Massachusetts. #mapoli
What does it mean for MA that the only person to defeat an incumbent state representative had more money spent on their behalf by Super PACs than from their own campaign? #mapoli csindie.com/state-houses...
State Houses are vulnerable to super Pacs - Cambridge | Somerville Independent
The majority of the money spent to help many top candidates in getting elected is not subject to campaign finance limits – and not controlled by the candidates.
csindie.com
Diagnosing how Haley Stevens chose to torpedo her career, reputation, national standing will win someone a Pulitzer in a few years. Can’t wait for the book to come out. Nathan Fielder?
State Houses are vulnerable to super Pacs csindie.com/state-houses...
State Houses are vulnerable to super Pacs - Cambridge | Somerville Independent
The majority of the money spent to help many top candidates in getting elected is not subject to campaign finance limits – and not controlled by the candidates.
csindie.com
#mapoli bluesky roundup for this week. Trending words: election, voter, billion, mail, administration
Asking some friends if they knew @abdulelsayed.bsky.social when we were at Oxford together (he was one year behind me) and I'm discovering that the politics people and the public health people should probably have done a better job getting to know each other.
I wonder if there's any precedence in American history for refusing to let a ship unload its goods because freedom is at stake www.ft.com/content/3d9a...
New Jersey governor threatens to block delivery of Russian diesel cargoes
Mikie Sherrill calls Trump’s deal with Putin ‘corrupt and illegal’ as she weighs moves to stop shipment to east coast port
ft.com
Strong argument against Yale Law School
JD Vance on ranked choice voting: "I don't understand it. It seems to me that you have an election, the person who wins the most votes should win...The fact it's so confusing to a person who pays pretty close attention to politics I think suggests we should do our elections in, like, the normal way"
Super PACs spent more supporting six candidates for the legislature this year than those candidates themselves spent. That means that in those races, the majority of money was not subject to campaign finance limits. #mapoli More at chrisoates.substack.com/p/state-hous...
State Houses are vulnerable to Super PACs
More than you’d think they are, of course
chrisoates.substack.com
Tomorrow I'm writing about Super PAC spending in #mapoli. Here's a trivia question. Of the top 25 candidates with outside spending on them (support or oppose), for how many was that spending more than their own expenditures (2026 year to date, according to OCPF)
It Anthropic’s IPO is the peak of the AI bubble, is that bad news for the MBTA? chrisoates.substack.com/p/is-the-ai-...
Is the AI boom propping up the MBTA?
Using Fair Share to cover fares
chrisoates.substack.com
This sounds like the start of a Thick of It episode. www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
UK Politicians Are Testing Their Messages on AI-Generated Voters
UK politicians looking to gauge how British voters will react to their policies have a new cohort on which to test their ideas: AI-generated focus groups.
bloomberg.com
I know it’s not the main controversy of the Sydney Sweeney ad, but I’m struck that there’s a site called Novig that claims it’s a financial exchange and not a betting site. How the CFTC approved that is the real scandal.
One thing I don’t understand. Why are candidates running unopposed this year in #mapoli holding fundraisers for themselves when every Democratic dollar in this state should right now be going to Congressional swing seats?
The Elon Musk-Starshield story feels like it’ll be a huge story in 2027. It has all the elements. High profile actor. Immediately understandable. Reporters can ask who knew what when. Like Iran-Contra done by Bill Gates.
Predicted it (to be fair, it wasn’t that difficult once the Speaker criticised it)
Will the gas tax be suspended? I doubt it. What I’m looking for is whether the coverage focuses on the proposals from the gubernatorial candidates or the legislature - which is the branch of government that actually controls the budget. #mapoli
The anti-Andrea James mailers: unethical or smart? #mapoli chrisoates.substack.com/p/is-exploit...
Is exploiting political science to win an election unethical?
Or is it smart?
chrisoates.substack.com
The pro-Minogue Massachusetts First PAC had dropped $207k on “oppo” against Andrea James, a very transparent ploy to split the Democratic vote. www.ocpf.us/reports/disp...
The Shawn Oliver story raises questions about what was the "agreement" he made with Mike Minogue. The Governor cannot fire the Lt Governor. The job pays $216k per year, has prestige, and is what Oliver has been working towards for a year. chrisoates.substack.com/p/what-if-a-...
What if a Lt Governor refuses to resign?
And should we be electing them separately?
chrisoates.substack.com
With Musk sabotaging Ukrainian Starlink, should blue states look for alternatives in their own emergency communications suppliers? Do we really think that he wouldn't cut off access if he felt like it if an AG went after him? Something that #mapoli should be thinking about.
I don't remember any other Administration referring to a Cabinet Secretary as [President's] Secretary in official press releases. Can anyone in political comms recall something similar?
Why does the State Senate have its own social media where it's promoting policies that have not yet passed the State Senate? It's not the biggest problem in #mapoli, but it is weird for the institution to be the byline. chrisoates.substack.com/p/why-does-t...
Why does the State Senate have a Substack?
And why is it taking positions on things?
chrisoates.substack.com
Great newsletter coming up tomorrow. One of the least important problems facing Massachusetts. Of all the issues voters care about, this isn’t one of them. But it is a window into one of the biggest.
I'm seeing arguments against Question 3 that basically amount to uncompetitive general elections are a good thing. The idea that it's bad for working class candidates because they'd have to campaign for more. Or that primaries create a pipeline for progressive groups.
From @kellygarrity.bsky.social today: "Wu is pitching the state’s current partisan primary system as one that “plays a central role in educating voters"" Having just run in a primary, I can guarantee that there is very little educating happening in a primary contested on Sept 1