Williams and Jefferson were dovish in recent Fed speeches; Dallas Fed president Lorie Logan in remarks this evening was most assuredly not: "Still, I currently estimate the target range needs to rise an additional 50 basis points or more to appropriately balance the outlook and risks ...

New AP poll finds broad disapproval of Trump's handling of economy, cost of living: apnews.com/article/trum...

Trump issues a lengthy response to the IG's report on the Fed's building renovation. He ends with, "No, I do not want this Building named after President Donald J. Trump, ME!"

There are many details from the Federal Reserve IG report that didn't make it into our story: For example, its building renovation includes underground space equivalent to 9 football fields (p. 18). Underground construction is expensive but there are height limits in DC. 1/x

Sen. Elizabeth Warren statement on the IG report on the Fed's building project doesn't hold back:

Top tech executives after meeting with Trump Tuesday agree to "self-police" their development of AI. The voluntary accord reflects Trump's bullish approach toward AI even as its development has prompted anxieties among Americans and backlash against data centers. apnews.com/article/trum...

Boston Fed president Susan Collins says the Iran war helped tip her in favor of an interest rate hike last week. She also penciled in one more hike this year and none in 2027, she said in an interview. apnews.com/article/infl...

Federal Reserve rate hike reflects new world of sticky inflation and faster growth apnews.com/article/fede...

Federal Reserve rate hike reflects new world of sticky inflation and faster growth

President Donald Trump has renewed his attacks on the Federal Reserve after it hiked its benchmark interest rate Wednesday, but the Fed matters less than broader economic trends when it comes to longe...

apnews.com

Help an econ reporter out here: Who is doing all this spending? Clearly most from upper-income consumers, but consumer sentiment surveys are all gloomy, and then we get a big 1.2% jump in retail sales this month! apnews.com/article/reta...

Capital Economics on retail sales:

Warsh likely to side with financial markets over Trump as Fed rate hike expected apnews.com/article/fede...

Today's producer price index shows big price increases in air fares, hospital inpatient care, and outpatient care, which will push up the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation. Could make rate hike more likely. apnews.com/article/prod...

WASHINGTON (AP) — In the real world, President Donald Trump is struggling to stop inflation, rout the Iranian government and restore American manufacturing with tariffs. However, it’s a different story in the fantastical vision that he shares with supporters .... apnews.com/article/trum...

Gotta love that “Sorry!”

Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack reiterates her support for hiking rates in LinkedIn post, just before blackout period (when Fed officials don't comment for 10 days before a meeting). She dissented last time and still hears from businesses seeking higher rates: www.linkedin.com/posts/beth-h...

As if next week's inflation report wasn't already high stakes enough, Fed's Waller saying his decision whether to support a hike or not will largely depend on it: apnews.com/article/infl...

New York Fed president John C. Williams spoke with CNBC this morning. Watch his interview: nyfed.org/4ylsJmG

Warsh's speech has raised expectations for a rate hike in September, setting the Fed chair up for potential questions about his inflation-fighting commitment if the central bank doesn't hike then. Our takeaways from the Fed's Jackson Hole conference: apnews.com/article/infl...

Warsh raises stakes for Fed's next meeting and other takeaways from Jackson Hole conference

Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh provided his most detailed insights yet on how he views the central bank's fight against inflation in a high-profile speech an at annual economic conference in…

apnews.com

Ahead of Bessent's news conference today: apnews.com/article/iran...

Iran's rial currency hits new record low as US prepares to announce more sanctions

Iran’s currency has hit a record low as Washington prepares to announce new sanctions. The U.S. has said the sanctions would add further pressure on an economy already battered by previous ones and…

apnews.com

It's fascinating to me to see all the praise for Warsh "finally" letting bond markets allegedly price off economic fundamentals, rather than Fed guidance, and yet the administration that appointed him doesn't seem to like those prices.

Our AP explainer on what’s going on in Treasury markets: Why Treasury Secretary Bessent's moves to calm the bond market haven't worked so far apnews.com/article/rate...

Why Treasury Secretary Bessent's moves to calm the bond market haven't worked so far

Interest rates rebounded Thursday despite efforts by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent to put a lid on longer-term borrowing costs.

apnews.com

This seems overly pessimistic, but revealing about how Americans see inflation eroding their finances, despite mild cooling in price gains (from UMich consumer sentiment survey):

Interesting take from the inflation report: (h/t Bill Adams at Fifth Third Commerical Bank):

The Fed will hold a press conference next week after the Wednesday meeting, even as Warsh has committed to having them after every meeting:

Here's one Wall Street bank's take on whose dots are whose in the latest Fed SEP. Feel like Hammack or Logan could be the top dot, rather than Schmid, but any make sense (from Deutsche Bank):

Gas up 16 cents in past week, diesel up 26 cents, while both are now up slightly from a month ago. Going to reverse the recent disinflation we've seen if it continues.

Cleveland Fed president Beth Hammack out with hawkish statement today on LinkedIn. With Logan, perhaps two dissents at the July meeting in favor of a hike?: tinyurl.com/mpuda5hp

Dallas Fed's Lorie Logan not convinced by June CPI, and makes a forward-looking case for rate hikes: "...one month of relief is not enough. ... Unfortunately, inflation does not appear to be headed sustainably back all the way to 2 percent." www.dallasfed.org/news/speeche...

Remarks on inflation, employment and monetary policy

Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan shares her views on the economy and monetary policy outlook.

dallasfed.org

Federal Reserve research note finds that 90% of AI equipment is sourced from overseas -- specifically East Asia -- and its persistence could worsen inflation through rising import prices: www.federalreserve.gov/econres/note...

Technology Shocks, the AI Boom, and the U.S. Current Account

The Federal Reserve Board of Governors in Washington DC.

federalreserve.gov

Our take on Fed Chair Warsh's hearing today: apnews.com/article/fede...