Meet Marie Baker, an information management manager in our Supervision, Credit Risk, and Statistics department. Learn more about why Marie does what she does, new projects, and more: https://bit.ly/4hND8lR #DayInTheLife ✈️

Hires, quits, and layoffs have all been low during the strong labor market over the past year or so. This combination is historically unusual. This report shares why this is unusual, and longer-term context behind it: https://clefed.org/455u6JA

How do people view future government debt? Researchers examined government debt growth expectations before & after the pandemic. Findings show that people expected debt to grow faster than it actually did, especially during the later years of the pandemic https://clefed.org/4g5jvEB

“When I started at the Federal Reserve, I thought monetary policy began with the Fed, and that is wrong.” That was an insight Economist emeritus Owen Humpage shared to kick off our latest Fed Talk. To discover what he learned, read or watch the full event https://clefed.org/4v7CqTR

Sandusky’s economy sees ups and downs, just like its famous rollercoasters. Our president and CEO Beth Hammack recently met with area leaders to hear firsthand how weather, tourism, and community efforts shape the area’s economy: https://clefed.org/3Tf2EGE

The Cleveland Fed’s median PCE #inflation rate was 0.1% in June and 2.7% on a year-over-year basis. Latest update: http://clefed.org/PCE

According to the latest Small Business Credit Survey, nonemployer firms—those with no paid employees except the owner(s) were less likely than employer firms to be profitable but showed stronger optimism about future revenue growth. View the 2026 Chartbook https://bit.ly/4wmw9V8

The latest Small Business Credit Survey showed that nonemployer firms—those with no paid employees except the owner(s)—were more likely than employer firms to rely on their owners’ personal funds to address financial challenges. See: https://bit.ly/4wmw9V8

Curious how job trainers, like Dan Young, are tackling the reported soft skills gap? Our three‑chapter multimedia story highlights approaches and results. Read or listen now: https://clefed.org/4g3NUDK

Our Education and Learning Center is closed this week. We will reopen during our normal hours on July 27, 9 am—2 pm. Plan your visit: clefed.org/visit

Soft skills aren’t “nice to have”—they’re essential. After research showed this, we collected firsthand accounts that became our latest multimedia storytelling. It explores why soft skills are important *and* lacking. Dive in: https://clefed.org/4g3NUDK

Our Federal Reserve history Fed Talk is TODAY at 1 pm ET! You can still join us online. Register now: https://clefed.org/4v7CqTR

On balance, Fourth District contacts reported that business activity increased modestly in recent weeks, and contacts generally anticipated moderate growth in the coming months. #BeigeBook https://clefed.org/4vuVWJO

Overall employment rebounded nationwide and in the Fourth District by 2024, but manufacturing jobs remain well below 2002 levels. This decline coincides with an aging manufacturing workforce. See the data: https://clefed.org/4vyloOC

The Cleveland Fed's latest estimate of 10-year expected #inflation is 2.43%. clefed.org/IE

16% trimmed-mean CPI was unchanged in June and rose 2.6% on a year-over-year basis. https://clefed.org/CPI

Median #CPI rose 0.2% in June and 2.7% on a year-over-year basis. See our latest median #CPI and trimmed mean #CPI updates: clefed.org/CPI

New research introduces a way to measure which job tasks qualify workers to be "exempt" from overtime pay. This measure revealed 60% of salaried workers are in jobs in which either all or no tasks are exempt. See the paper: https://clefed.org/4aUJsnn

Our #CPI indicator updates tomorrow. The Cleveland Fed’s #inflation nowcasting model (updated daily!) predicts year-over-year CPI #inflation of 3.96% in June. Check it out: clefed.org/3yCkTHV

The Federal Reserve has existed for 113 years, but how did the US handle monetary policy before the Fed existed? Join our economist emeritus Owen Humpage as he unpacks the crises that led to the Fed's creation in 1913. In-person registration closes TODAY: https://clefed.org/4v7CqTR

Curious how job trainers, like Dan Young, are tackling the reported soft skills gap? Our three‑chapter multimedia story highlights approaches and results. Read or listen now: https://clefed.org/4g3NUDK

Nearly a third of nonemployer businesses, or firms with no paid employees except the owner(s), indicated in the 2025 Small Business Credit Survey that they planned to add employees in the next 12 months. See the chartbook: https://bit.ly/4wmw9V8

“I don’t think anybody [in this focus group] makes enough to be comfortable. We make enough just to live” a Worker Perspectives participants said. Uncover how workers and job seekers with a household income of <$85K are experiencing today’s economy. https://bit.ly/43LczFO

Could certain groups’ unemployment rates help predict broader unemployment issues? Our new research identifies groups of workers whose unemployment rates may be able to give economists an early sign of what’s to come: https://clefed.org/44MSKyh

Our Education and Learning Center is closed this week. We will reopen on July 13 during our normal hours, Monday-Wednesday, 9 AM-2 PM. Plan your visit: clefed.org/visit

Happy Independence Day from all of us at the Cleveland Fed! #IndependenceDay

The Federal Reserve has existed for 113 years, but how did the US handle monetary policy before the Fed existed? Join our economist emeritus Owen Humpage as he unpacks the crises that led to the Fed's creation in 1913. Register now: https://clefed.org/4v7CqTR

The Survey of Regional Conditions and Expectations (SORCE) total business conditions diffusion index decreased by 16 points to 22, while the total expected conditions diffusion index decreased by 5 points to 38. Results calculated from the 6.18–6.25 survey clefed.org/SORCE

Survey of Regional Conditions and Expectations (SORCE)

SORCE indexes are based on our survey of business and community leaders and provide a timely summary of economic activity in our region, which includes all of Ohio and parts of Pennsylvania, Kentucky, and West Virginia. Released twice each quarter.

clefed.org

Our soft skills storytelling reveals how educators and employers are working to close reported gaps. See why our readers are connecting with the work, read, or listen, to all three chapters today: https://clefed.org/4g3NUDK

Firms surveyed in the Fourth District say the strength of demand is the most important factor they consider when setting prices, even ahead of profit margins and competitors’ pricing. See their responses: https://clefed.org/4akDKLp