Breaking News! Code: Bonkers! El Nino continues to spike towards an all-time record high anomaly, with the Nino 3.4 sea surface temperature more than 2.6°C above the 1991-2020 baseline as of August 4th, and more than 1.0C° above the previous August 4th record set in 1997.
Prof. Eliot Jacobson
@climatecasino.net
Retired professor of mathematics and computer science, casino consultant, author of 4 books: 3 on casino games & 1 poetry book. Now I volunteer, walk a lot & feed local critters. Climate blog: climatecasino.net Casino blog: advancedadvantageplay.com
Breaking News! Code UFB!!! The ECMWF just released its August update to its Nino 3.4 forecast plume, and the median December peak is now over 4.0°C, up from 3.9°C in July. charts.ecmwf.int/products/sea...
Your 'doom quote' for today: "Denmark 'owns' all of Greenland and might become one of the world's wealthier countries if it can maintain its grip on the colony." www.thriftbooks.com/w/the-floode...
The Flooded Earth: Our Future In a World... book by Peter D. Ward
Buy a cheap copy of The Flooded Earth: Our Future In a World... book by Peter D. Ward. No matter what efforts we make to halt global warming, sea level rise will be an unavoidable part of our future. ...
thriftbooks.com
Your 'moment of doom' for Aug. 5, 2026 ~ Sympathy for the devil. "warming is accelerating ... That’s because traditional industrial pollution that creates soot and smog — which cool the planet and mask greenhouse gas-triggered warming — is decreasing." apnews.com/article/warm...
This summer isn't breaking heat records — yet. Wait until El Nino kicks in, scientists say
With parts of the globe aflame in wildfires, deadly heat waves parking over cities, record hot oceans and a strengthening super El Nino, it seems like we’re baking through the hottest year on record.
apnews.com
I'm volunteering at this event ~ helping to raise $$$ for critters. www.sbcanimalcare.org/tailsofhope
Breaking News! Code Bonkers! As of August 3rd, Nino 3.4 has crossed 2.5°C above the 1991-2020 baseline. The Climate Casino predicted August 1st for this crossing and now has a lot of fake-bets to pay out. Was the fix in? Next up, 3.0°C by August 21st.
Your 'moment of doom' for Aug. 4, 2026 ~ Easy come, easy go. "Hungary and Romania have been forced to shut down nuclear reactors cooled by the Danube for the first time, as record-low water levels deepen fears of an energy crisis across the region." www.theguardian.com/world/2026/a...
Romania blasts rock to divert water from drought-hit Danube to nuclear reactor
Hungary and Romania face energy crisis as record-low river levels force atomic power plants to reduce output
theguardian.com
The latest CFSv2 forecast for the Niño 3.4 region shows a maximum of about 4.4°C in November. The Climate 8-ball is in rehab (a friend's daughter explained to me what '8-ball' meant to her).
Your 'doom quote' for today: “It is the biggest threat humanity has faced, with the potential to wreck our social fabric and way of life. It has the potential to kill millions, if not billions, through starvation, war over resources, displacement." www.nmn.com/news/living-...
Living Longer May Be Pointless, Experts Predict It’s Too Late
Long-ignored climate experts predict a global catastrophe due to a 2.5 C° temperature increase, potentially making attempts at living longer a fruitless endeavor.
nmn.com
Your 'moment of doom' for Aug. 3, 2026 ~ Let them eat beans on toast "Farms across the country were affected by floods over the winter, making planting extremely difficult, and now in many areas they do not have access to water as irrigation is being restricted due to drought."
Britain could face food shortages as drought continues, farmers warn
Farmers battle to salvage what they can of their crops as heatwave set to continue
theguardian.com
Just to be clear, using the most current scientific terminology, global sea-surface temperatures are currently 'bonkers'. Will temperatures make it to 'uncharted territory' by the end of 2027? The Climate Casino is taking the Over.
Your 'doom quote' for today: “It was the end of civilization, the end of all that men had striven for since the beginning of time. In the space of a few days, humanity had lost its future…” www.thriftbooks.com/w/childhoods...
Childhood's End book by Arthur C. Clarke
Buy a cheap copy of Childhood's End book by Arthur C. Clarke. Without warning, giant silver ships from deep space appear in the skies above every major city on Earth. Manned by the Overlords, in fifty...
thriftbooks.com
Your 'doom quote' for today: "When you look at the whole life of the planet, we- you know, man- has only been around for a few blinks of an eye. So if the infection wipes us all out, that is a return to normality." www.imdb.com/title/tt0289...
imdb.com
Breaking News! Code Meh! July, 2026, came in at 1.47°C above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial baseline, finishing in 3rd place behind 2024 (1.48°C) and 2023 (1.52°C). The Climate Casino is taking the Over on the hottest August on record. Stay tuned!
Here are the daily Nino 3.4 sea-surface temperature anomalies (1991-2020 baseline), from 1982 to present. The latest data from July 31th shows an anomaly just under 2.5°C. It's already the 4th warmest El Nino on record with 3 months of additional heating ahead.
Breaking News! Code: Bonkers! As of July 31st, Nino 3.4 sea-surface temperatures are now 2.48°C above the 1991-2020 baseline and more than 1.15°C above the previous daily high. The Climate Casino took the "Over" on 2.5°C by August 1st. Stay tuned!
Your 'moment of doom' for Aug. 1, 2026 ~ Climate hell incoming. "Temperatures above 50°C (122°F), which have been virtually impossible at Mediterranean locations in the pre-industrial world, have seen their likelihood increase by a factor of 10 to 1,000 under human-induced climate change"
Building for 131°F: Europe races to protect its infrastructure from a ‘quiet catastrophe’
A summer of weather extremes and severe infrastructure stress has prompted companies and policymakers across Europe to respond.
cnbc.com
Your 'doom quote' for today: "With cheap, abundant energy, the attempt clearly would be made to pave, develop, industrialize, and exploit every last bit of the planet—a trend that would inevitably lead to a collapse of the life-support systems upon which civilization depends."
Paul R. Ehrlich - Wikiquote
en.wikiquote.org
When will the planet get back below 1.5C? The Climate Casino is taking the Over on the year 2525.
Your 'moment of doom' for July 31, 2026 ~ Burn, baby, burn. "The phallic mantra of 'drill, baby, drill' is guiding an administration for which the faintest speck of care for the Earth is already too woke." www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...
Europe is burning – and if Trump’s war on the climate is not met with sanctions, things will only get worse | Alexander Hurst
The White House seems committed to ecocide. The EU should harness the power of the single market to force it to change course, says Guardian Europe writer Alexander Hurst
theguardian.com
Your 'doom quote' for today: "A strange game. The only winning move is not to play." www.imdb.com/title/tt0086...
imdb.com
In the latest CFSv2 run for the Nino 3.4 region, there is now no model run that peaks below 4.1°C. Fortunately, cities and local governments around the world are already preparing for what could be the most significant global climate event in 150 years. Oh, wait.
Your 'moment of doom' for July 30, 2026 ~ Wow! "when I run my own forecast model separately on each of six datasets, it gives GISTEMP a ~65% chance of a new 2026 record even as the multi-dataset average only has a ~32% chance and is likely to come in second place." substack.com/home/post/p-...
Why Hansen may end up being right about 2026
Whether 2026 sets a new record is increasingly likely to be a spit decision between different groups
substack.com
Definitely bonkers but not yet in uncharted territory. Yesterday's global SST was 0.11°C hotter than the previous record SST for July 29th, set way back in 2023.
Here's another graphic demonstrating that the planet has already passed 1.5°C above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial baseline, this time using monthly averages, with a prediction to pass 2.0°C by late 2036.
Here's a graph of global surface temperatures since 1940 by their decadal average. Notice any pattern?
Your 'doom quote' for today: "When the energy information bubble bursts and the truth is finally known, it may be too late for our entire species to do anything about it. That will be the 'bubble' that kills all of us." www.thriftbooks.com/w/confrontin...
Confronting Collapse: The Crisis of... book by Michael C. Ruppert
Buy a cheap copy of Confronting Collapse: The Crisis of... book by Michael C. Ruppert. The book that inspired the movie Collapse.The world is running short of energy-especially cheap, easy-to-find oil...
thriftbooks.com
The latest Nino 3.4 data. Yesterday's Nino 3.4 sea-surface temperature set the 60th consecutive daily record high for the Nino 3.4 region, and was 0.83°C higher than the previous record for July 28th, which came at the start of the 1997/98 El Nino.
The more you know ... Assuming accelerated warming, Earth passed through the Paris limit of 1.5°C over the 1850-1900 IPCC pre-industrial baseline earlier this year.