Prof. Eliot Jacobson

@climatecasino.net

Retired professor of mathematics and computer science, casino consultant, author of 4 books: 3 on casino games & 1 poetry book. Now I volunteer, walk a lot & feed local critters. Climate blog: climatecasino.net Casino blog: advancedadvantageplay.com

Breaking News! Code: Bonkers! El Nino continues to spike towards an all-time record high anomaly, with the Nino 3.4 sea surface temperature more than 2.6°C above the 1991-2020 baseline as of August 4th, and more than 1.0C° above the previous August 4th record set in 1997.

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Your 'moment of doom' for Aug. 5, 2026 ~ Sympathy for the devil. "warming is accelerating ... That’s because traditional industrial pollution that creates soot and smog — which cool the planet and mask greenhouse gas-triggered warming — is decreasing." apnews.com/article/warm...

This summer isn't breaking heat records — yet. Wait until El Nino kicks in, scientists say

With parts of the globe aflame in wildfires, deadly heat waves parking over cities, record hot oceans and a strengthening super El Nino, it seems like we’re baking through the hottest year on record.

apnews.com

Breaking News! Code Bonkers! As of August 3rd, Nino 3.4 has crossed 2.5°C above the 1991-2020 baseline. The Climate Casino predicted August 1st for this crossing and now has a lot of fake-bets to pay out. Was the fix in? Next up, 3.0°C by August 21st.

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Your 'moment of doom' for Aug. 4, 2026 ~ Easy come, easy go. "Hungary and Romania have been forced to shut down nuclear reactors cooled by the Danube for the first time, as record-low water levels deepen fears of an energy crisis across the region." www.theguardian.com/world/2026/a...

Romania blasts rock to divert water from drought-hit Danube to nuclear reactor

Hungary and Romania face energy crisis as record-low river levels force atomic power plants to reduce output

theguardian.com

Your 'doom quote' for today: “It is the biggest threat humanity has faced, with the potential to wreck our social fabric and way of life. It has the potential to kill millions, if not billions, through starvation, war over resources, displacement." www.nmn.com/news/living-...

Living Longer May Be Pointless, Experts Predict It’s Too Late

Long-ignored climate experts predict a global catastrophe due to a 2.5 C° temperature increase, potentially making attempts at living longer a fruitless endeavor.

nmn.com

Just to be clear, using the most current scientific terminology, global sea-surface temperatures are currently 'bonkers'. Will temperatures make it to 'uncharted territory' by the end of 2027? The Climate Casino is taking the Over.

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Breaking News! Code Meh! July, 2026, came in at 1.47°C above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial baseline, finishing in 3rd place behind 2024 (1.48°C) and 2023 (1.52°C). The Climate Casino is taking the Over on the hottest August on record. Stay tuned!

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Here are the daily Nino 3.4 sea-surface temperature anomalies (1991-2020 baseline), from 1982 to present. The latest data from July 31th shows an anomaly just under 2.5°C. It's already the 4th warmest El Nino on record with 3 months of additional heating ahead.

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Breaking News! Code: Bonkers! As of July 31st, Nino 3.4 sea-surface temperatures are now 2.48°C above the 1991-2020 baseline and more than 1.15°C above the previous daily high. The Climate Casino took the "Over" on 2.5°C by August 1st. Stay tuned!

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Your 'moment of doom' for Aug. 1, 2026 ~ Climate hell incoming. "Temperatures above 50°C (122°F), which have been virtually impossible at Mediterranean locations in the pre-industrial world, have seen their likelihood increase by a factor of 10 to 1,000 under human-induced climate change"

Building for 131°F: Europe races to protect its infrastructure from a ‘quiet catastrophe’

A summer of weather extremes and severe infrastructure stress has prompted companies and policymakers across Europe to respond.

cnbc.com

In the latest CFSv2 run for the Nino 3.4 region, there is now no model run that peaks below 4.1°C. Fortunately, cities and local governments around the world are already preparing for what could be the most significant global climate event in 150 years. Oh, wait.

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Your 'moment of doom' for July 30, 2026 ~ Wow! "when I run my own forecast model separately on each of six datasets, it gives GISTEMP a ~65% chance of a new 2026 record even as the multi-dataset average only has a ~32% chance and is likely to come in second place." substack.com/home/post/p-...

Why Hansen may end up being right about 2026

Whether 2026 sets a new record is increasingly likely to be a spit decision between different groups

substack.com

Here's another graphic demonstrating that the planet has already passed 1.5°C above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial baseline, this time using monthly averages, with a prediction to pass 2.0°C by late 2036.

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The latest Nino 3.4 data. Yesterday's Nino 3.4 sea-surface temperature set the 60th consecutive daily record high for the Nino 3.4 region, and was 0.83°C higher than the previous record for July 28th, which came at the start of the 1997/98 El Nino.

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