Falko Judt

@cloudprophet.bsky.social

Research meteorologist at NSF NCAR, specializing in tropical meteorology and the science behind weather prediction. Hurricane aficionado. 🇺🇸/🇩🇪

Four days before Typhoon Ragasa’s rainbands hit Taiwan, the 3.75-km MPAS predicted >36" of rain in the mountains—while the 15-km parallel run only showed up to 24". By better resolving Taiwan’s terrain and upslope rainfall, the high-res run shows the value of higher resolution in complex terrain.

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While our experimental 3.75-km MPAS forecast did not move the storm as quickly as in reality—placing it farther east and farther from land—it nevertheless captured a super typhoon before the system was even named #Ragasa 👉 project.mmm.ucar.edu/real-time-fo...

MMM Real-Time Forecasts

MMM real-time forecasts from MPAS, WRF, IFS, and GFS models

project.mmm.ucar.edu

Falko Judt @cloudprophet.bsky.social · 11mo ago

18-Sep 00Z MPAS forecast has a major typhoon aiming at the Luzon Strait in three days. This system hasn't even formed yet, so we'll see. 👉 project.mmm.ucar.edu/real-time-fo... Variable: Infrared Brightness Temp, Domain: Invest 90 (WP90)

MPAS brings Hurricane Kiko close to Hawaii (as a 45-kt tropical storm) in ~4 days creating some interesting topographical flow features 👉 project.mmm.ucar.edu/real-time-fo... Variable: 10-m Winds, Domain: Hawaii

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Falko Judt @cloudprophet.bsky.social · 11mo ago

🌍 The MMM lab at @ncar-ucar.bsky.social is running experimental realtime forecasts with a global 3.75-km MPAS model. Goal: Highlight the power of global km-scale models for weather prediction from local to planetary scales, incl. tropical cyclones. 👉 project.mmm.ucar.edu/real-time-fo...

Flying is such a privilege. I can spend hours 👀 all the landmarks and the weather from above… (1) Golden, CO and its table mountains (2) Berthoud Pass (3) Rocky🏔️ after the first ❄️, barren South Park in the background (Copper ⛷️ peaks out, too) (4) Fog moving into dry hills near San Francisco

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