SCOOP: Warsh is considering reducing the number of policy meetings the Fed holds each year. He raised the idea at this week's meeting, according to four people with knowledge of the situation
Colby Smith
@colbylsmith.bsky.social
@nytimes correspondent writing about the Federal Reserve and the US economy. Previously @FT, @TheEconomist, @BloombergTV. colby.smith@nytimes.com
NEW: The Fed is in the business of "performance," Warsh said on Wednesday. It did not take long for markets to signal they were unhappy with his. Warsh reiterated tough talk on inflation but stopped short of embracing the prospects of higher rates, which many believe are necessary to address it
Warsh's Fed decides to keep interest rates unchanged despite growing pressure to more directly tackle inflation after five years of overshooting the central bank’s 2 percent target. @colbylsmith.bsky.social www.nytimes.com/live/2026/07...
What to know about the Fed’s decision.
Kevin M. Warsh, presiding over his second meeting as chairman of the central bank, faces pressure to raise interest rates as inflation remains elevated.
nytimes.com
The Fed's July meeting has officially kicked off. Our preview of the surprisingly uncertain decision is here: www.nytimes.com/2026/07/27/b... @nytimes.com
The Fed’s New Chairman Faces His Biggest Test Yet
Kevin M. Warsh, who has said the Federal Reserve has “no tolerance” for elevated inflation, must decide whether he wants to push for an interest-rate increase at this week’s policy meeting.
nytimes.com
NEW: Cooler inflation data this week helped to quiet calls for a July rate hike, but Fed officials have not written off the possibility of a move soon after What the Fed ends up having to do depends on the trajectory for inflation, and some policymakers seem more patient than others
Warsh to set to reiterate to lawmakers on Tuesday his commitment to getting inflation down. He says the Fed will set policy "right" such that "the inflation surge of the last five years will be a thing of the past." www.nytimes.com/2026/07/14/b... @nytimes.com
Warsh to Reiterate Fed’s Pledge to Get Inflation Down
Kevin M. Warsh, since becoming chairman of the Federal Reserve, has declined to say whether he supports higher interest rates to tame price pressures.
nytimes.com
WALLER: "If we get another hot reading on core inflation this week, then the FOMC will need to consider tightening monetary policy in the near term." "Sternly staring at inflation until it melts before our withering gaze is not an option." www.nytimes.com/2026/07/13/b... @nytimes.com
Fed Official Warns of Higher Rates if Inflation Stays Elevated
Christopher J. Waller, a governor at the Federal Reserve, said he needs to see several months of lower inflation data to feel confident about the outlook.
nytimes.com
A few Fed officials said there was a case for a rate hike at Warsh's first meeting, according to minutes from the June gathering. Officials are evenly split on the need for hikes to combat inflation and Warsh's opposition to forward guidance has left investors guessing on the next move
At Sintra, Warsh says further details on his five task forces will likely be announced next week. Our piece from earlier this week on how Warsh has already begun to change the Fed gift link: www.nytimes.com/2026/06/29/b...
How Warsh Has Begun to Change the Fed
nytimes.com
Warsh on the AI boom: "We can see it on the demand side, but it's up to the central bank to decide whether it's inflationary"
The Supreme Court's decision to let Cook stay on as a Fed governor is no doubt a victory for the central bank's independence. But the narrow ruling did not foreclose the president’s ability to try to dismiss officials in the future www.nytimes.com/2026/06/29/u... @nytimes.com @tonyromm.bsky.social
Cook is allowed to stay in her job, citing no due process. Court rules 5-4 with Roberts, Sotomayor, Kagan, Kavanaugh and Jackson in the majority.
A lot of these dynamics were captured in June's policy meeting. Procedurally, it followed the same structure as in the past but in terms of substance it was starkly different The streamlined statement and price stability pledge were instigated by Warsh, according to people familiar with the matter
Colby Smith@colbylsmith.bsky.social · last mo.NEW: How Warsh has begun to change the Fed Weeks into his chairmanship, Warsh's approach has taken shape – embrace aspects of how the Fed has historically operated but make clear that change is afoot gift link: www.nytimes.com/2026/06/29/b... @nytimes.com
Kevin Warsh has promised "regime change" at the Federal Reserve. His early weeks on the job have given some hints of what that could look like -- but with many questions still unanswered. From the deeply sourced @colbylsmith.bsky.social: www.nytimes.com/2026/06/29/b... #EconSky
How Warsh Has Begun to Change the Fed
nytimes.com
NEW: How Warsh has begun to change the Fed Weeks into his chairmanship, Warsh's approach has taken shape – embrace aspects of how the Fed has historically operated but make clear that change is afoot gift link: www.nytimes.com/2026/06/29/b... @nytimes.com
How Warsh Has Begun to Change the Fed
nytimes.com
New forecasts from Williams at the New York Fed: Expects real GDP growth around 2.25% this year through the next two years as the unemployment rate edges down to 4% in 2028 Fed to reach its 2% inflation target in 2028. Headline PCE to decline to 3.5% by year-end (4.1% as of May)
One aspect of the inflation debate at the Fed centers around the best measure for underlying price pressures. Warsh has talked about the value of trimmed mean, which strips out outliers. One risk is that policymakers will focus on whichever measure gives them the answer they prefer
NEW: If the deal to end the Iran war holds, the worst of the recent inflation surge could soon be over. But the Fed’s inflation problem is far from fixed. The question officials are grappling with is just how patient they can afford to be in waiting for underlying price pressures to ease
More plaudits for Warsh during Bessent's interview with @cnbc.com this morning. He backed Warsh getting rid of forward guidance and his "tough" message on inflation
Greenspan was the only Fed chair that Warsh singled out at his swearing-in ceremony back in May. From communications to alternative data, our piece on how Warsh is seeking to carry on his legacy www.nytimes.com/2026/06/22/b... @nytimes.com @bencasselman.bsky.social
NEW: Markets have been quick to fill a void left by Warsh at his first Fed meeting, having abstained from policy guidance. His approach has the benefit of carving out flexibility for the Fed. But it also raises the risk that he will not have as firm a grip on the narrative that takes hold
Three things to watch at Warsh's first Fed meeting: 1) Is this the end of policy guidance from the Fed chair? 2) Just how does Warsh characterize the extent of the Fed's inflation problem? 3) What does Warsh mean by regime change? www.nytimes.com/2026/06/17/b... @nytimes.com
What to Watch at the Federal Reserve’s June Meeting
nytimes.com
NEW: At his first meeting as Fed chairman, Warsh confronts a tenuous balancing act His pledge to recast how the Fed communicates adds another complication. He'll do his best to avoid providing a steer on policy, an approach that risks stoking vol www.nytimes.com/2026/06/16/b... @nytimes.com
Warsh Faces Tenuous Balancing Act in First Fed Meeting as Chairman
nytimes.com
The mild 0.2% monthly increase in core inflation in May will be viewed positively by officials at the Fed. Their primary concern is that price pressures caused by the war could start to broaden out beyond categories like food and energy www.nytimes.com/live/2026/06...
Live Updates: Inflation Jumps as Iran War Intensifies Price Squeeze
nytimes.com
In his first remarks after stepping down as Fed chair, Powell says the central bank is undergoing a “stress test” and says the removal of officials over policy disagreements would undermine its credibility www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/s...
Acceptance remarks by Governor Powell at the John F. Kennedy Library Foundation
Thank you, Jack, for that kind introduction. It is a great privilege to be here tonight with you, Ambassador Kennedy, and your family. And thank you to the JFK
federalreserve.gov
Complicating the rates outlook is a likely shift in the Fed's comms. Warsh says officials talk too much and box themselves in That creates a self-reinforcing loop, Warsh believes. Instead of giving an independent judgment on the state of the economy, markets reflect what the Fed has signaled
Colby Smith@colbylsmith.bsky.social · 3mo agoAs Warsh gets sworn in, the case for cuts has evaporated. Fed officials have embraced the possibility of hikes, sending Treasury yields higher Pushing for cuts would both isolate Warsh from his new colleagues and risk higher, not lower, long rates www.nytimes.com/2026/05/22/u... @nytimes.com
Waller: "I can no longer rule out rate hikes further down the road if inflation does not abate soon" He becomes the latest Fed official to endorse removing the easing bias from the statement and making clear that a rate hike is just as likely as a rate cut going forward
As Warsh gets sworn in, the case for cuts has evaporated. Fed officials have embraced the possibility of hikes, sending Treasury yields higher Pushing for cuts would both isolate Warsh from his new colleagues and risk higher, not lower, long rates www.nytimes.com/2026/05/22/u... @nytimes.com
Warsh to Take Charge of Fed Facing Rising Inflation Threat
nytimes.com
On the eve of Warsh's swearing in as Fed chair on Friday, here's our piece from last week about what he means by regime change and how likely he is to achieve that www.nytimes.com/2026/05/15/u... @nytimes.com
Our full write-up: www.nytimes.com/2026/05/20/b...
Most Fed Officials Embraced Possibility of Higher Rates at Recent Meeting
nytimes.com
Colby Smith@colbylsmith.bsky.social · 3mo agoKey line in April's Fed minutes: A majority of officials embraced the possibility of higher rates to counteract the inflation surge www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypoli... @nytimes.com
