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Cover-1 Analytics

@cover-1analytics.bsky.social

Advanced NFL analytics for fans and fantasy owners Have a question? Just ask.

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Cover-1 Analytics @cover-1analytics.bsky.social · 6d ago

#PITvGB: The #Steelers offense (2025): below average from 5-15 yards and on deep balls, only clearly above average behind the line and at 15-20. #GB's defense is mostly average, with one real soft spot: the left guard gap (+0.18 vs. league average). @steelcurtainrising.bsky.social #NFL #Packers

Combined matchup preview chart for Pittsburgh Steelers offense vs. Green Bay Packers defense, 2025 regular season, with both panels expressed relative to a league-average passer or defense at the same depth/gap. Left panel: Aaron Rodgers graded below league average at 5-10, 10-15, and 20-25 yards, only clearly above average behind the line of scrimmage (+0.13) and at 15-20 yards (+0.17). Right panel: Green Bay's run defense relative to league average by gap — left guard is their most exploitable gap (+0.18), right end and right tackle their toughest (-0.07, -0.14).

Cover-1 Analytics @cover-1analytics.bsky.social · 6d ago

Which teams trust their tight ends and running backs closest to the end zone? The #49ers, #Browns, and #Steelers top the list: they send 64%+ of red-zone targets to a non-WR. The #Saints are the least likely, at just 31%. nflverse #NFL #NFLStats

100%-stacked bar chart titled "Who Throws to TEs and RBs in the Red Zone?" showing all 32 NFL teams' share of red-zone targets (inside the 20-yard line) by position sorted by combined TE+RB share from highest to lowest. San Francisco leads at 64% combined (38% RB, the league's highest RB share, plus 27% TE), followed closely by Cleveland (38% TE) and Pittsburgh (36% TE). New Orleans is lowest at 31% combined, throwing 69% of red-zone targets to wide receivers. 2025 season through week 18, minimum 20 red-zone targets per team.

Cover-1 Analytics @cover-1analytics.bsky.social · 7d ago

New #Steelers DC Patrick Graham's coverage mix has shifted dramatically at every stop, from 48% Cover 1 in Miami (2019) to just 15% in his final year with the Raiders (2025). Here's his full history vs. Pittsburgh's 2025 mix. @steelcurtainrising.bsky.social nflverse #NFL #Steelers

100%-stacked bar chart titled "Patrick Graham's Coverage History vs. 2025 Steelers," showing the share of classified pass-coverage snaps by shell (Cover 0, Cover 1, Man 2, Cover 2, Cover 3, Cover 4, Cover 6, Other) for each team-season Graham served as defensive coordinator: Miami 2019, NY Giants 2020-21, Las Vegas 2022-25, compared to Pittsburgh's own 2025 mix under the previous staff. Cover 1 usage ranges from 48% in Miami down to 15% in his final Raiders season; Cover 3 ranges from 23% to 42% across his stops. Pittsburgh's 2025 mix (25% Cover 1, 28% Cover 3) sits between his various profiles.

Cover-1 Analytics @cover-1analytics.bsky.social · last wk.

Which NFL offense is the most one-man show in the passing game? Seattle, by a clear margin: 36% of targets go to a single receiver, the most concentrated target share in the league. #SeattleSeahawks #GoHawks #12thMan #SeahawksNation #NFL

100%-stacked bar chart titled "How Each Team Allocates Its Targets," showing all 32 NFL teams' share of targets by receiving role (WR1, WR2, WR3+, TE, RB), sorted by WR1 share from highest to lowest. Seattle leads the league at 36% of targets to its top receiver, followed by Detroit at 31% and Cincinnati at 30%. The Jets are the most balanced, at just 13% to their WR1. 2025 season through week 18.

Dan Rees @dprees8.bsky.social · last wk.

The Chargers being 3rd worst after just 1st down is such a Greg Roman stat hah. Excited to see what they look like this year!

Cover-1 Analytics@cover-1analytics.bsky.social · last wk.

How do the #Rams and #Bills stay on the field? They convert to a first down early and often. The Browns, on the other side of the league, struggle to get beyond the sticks. @laramsfanzone.bsky.social nflverse #NFL

Cumulative stacked bar chart titled "How often do NFL offenses convert to a new series of downs?" showing all 32 teams, one bar each, with segments for cumulative conversion rate by 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 4th down, sorted from highest to lowest final conversion rate. The Rams lead at 77%, the Browns trail at 61%, 2025 season through week 18

Cover-1 Analytics @cover-1analytics.bsky.social · last wk.

A year ago Drake Maye was a rookie on a 4-13 team. Now he leads the #NFL in EPA per dropback. Full-season ranking below. @patspulpit.bsky.social #NFL nflverse

Cover-1 Analytics @cover-1analytics.bsky.social · last wk.

Void years have won in the #NFL. Every team in the league is committed to more contract value than the cap allows. The #Lions are the most extreme case, at 60% over. This will be a key issue in the next round of collective bargaining. nflverse (OTC contracts) + public cap figures

Cover-1 Analytics @cover-1analytics.bsky.social · last wk.

Which #NFL teams face the toughest roster calls in 2027? The #Lions, with nearly 110% of the projected cap already allocated to returning players, on top of 55% of the roster expiring. #Ravens and #Packers are next, but with far fewer expiring deals. #NFLStats

Scatter chart titled "Which Teams Face the Toughest Roster Decisions?" plotting all 32 NFL teams by percent of the projected 2027 salary cap committed to returning players (x-axis) versus percent of active contracts expiring after 2026 (y-axis), with team logos as markers. Detroit sits alone in the upper right at roughly 110% of the projected cap committed and 55% of contracts expiring — the only team high on both measures. Baltimore and Green Bay are also high on cap commitment but with far fewer expiring deals. Arizona, Chicago, and the Rams sit lowest on cap commitment.

Cover-1 Analytics @cover-1analytics.bsky.social · last wk.

The #NFL coverage compass: Do teams prefer one type of coverage? Teams that are further from the middle are more committed to a scheme. North (Cover 1): #PHI, 35% East (Cover 2): #MIN, 37% South (Cover 3): #NO, 40% West (Cover 4): #ATL, 16% via FTN Data / nflverse #NFLStats

Compass scatter plotting all 32 NFL defenses by coverage-shell tendency for the 2025 season — Cover 1 north, Cover 2 east, Cover 3 south, Cover 4 west, team logos as markers, position determined by how much a defense favors one shell over its opposite (Cover 1 vs. Cover 3 on the vertical axis, Cover 2 vs. Cover 4 on the horizontal). Most Cover 1: Philadelphia (35%). Most Cover 2: Minnesota (37%), also the team furthest from center overall. Most Cover 3: New Orleans (40%). Most Cover 4: Atlanta (16%). Atlanta and Washington sit closest to the center, showing no strong lean toward any one shell.

Cover-1 Analytics @cover-1analytics.bsky.social · last wk.

Every NFL team's coverage mix for 2025 Teams with a clear preference: NO: 40.3% Cover 3 PHI: 35.1% Cover 1 MIN: 36.5% Cover 2 DET: 11.2% 2-Man via FTN Data / nflverse #NFL #NFLStats

Table of each of the 32 NFL defenses' share of snaps in Cover 0, Cover 1, 2-Man, Cover 2, Cover 3, Cover 4, and Cover 6 for the 2025 season. Notable outliers: New Orleans at 40.3% Cover 3 (most in the league), Philadelphia at 35.1% Cover 1 (most), Minnesota at 36.5% Cover 2 (most) while running the least Cover 1 at 8.0%, and Detroit at 11.2% 2-Man (most).

Cover-1 Analytics @cover-1analytics.bsky.social · last wk.

Has the NFL's coverage mix changed since 2018? Cover 3: 34% (2018) → 27% (2025) Cover 1: 29% (2018) → 23% (2025) Man (2-Man): 2% (2018) → 5% (2025) via FTN Data / nflverse #NFL #NFLStats

100%-stacked bar chart of the league-wide (all 32 teams combined) share of snaps in Cover 0, Cover 1, 2-Man, Cover 2, Cover 3, Cover 4, Cover 6, and Other coverage shells, one bar per season from 2018 through 2025, earliest season at top. Cover 3 usage moved from 34% in 2018 to 27% by 2025; Cover 1 usage moved from 29% to 23%; 2-Man usage moved from 2% to 5%.

Cover-1 Analytics @cover-1analytics.bsky.social · last wk.

Where should teams throw the ball? Each hexagon = one field zone (depth × left/middle/right). Green = efficient, red = costly, size = volume. Most efficient across every zone: NE & GB (+0.50 EPA/att), BUF (+0.40). via nflverse #NFL #NFLStats

NFL passing EPA by depth of target for all 32 teams in the NFL