El-Sayed generally under-performed Bernie Sander's 2016 pres'l primary results in Michigan counties, except in the larger counties in the southern part of the state, esp. counties with lots of students.

Here's the current county scatterplot of El-Sayed vs. Bernie Sanders in 2016. (Sanders got 50% of the primary vote). This is likely to be closer than the polls have indicated.

Is no one noticing that El-Sayed is under-performing Sander 2016 in the counties that have reported almost all their votes?

I have just posted the introduction to a series in which I examine some of the data behind the gap between support for the general principles of the SAVE America Act and the practicalities of designing legislation to achieve those goals. playingwithelectiondata.substack.com/p/how-the-s...

How the SAVE America Act Leaves Policy Wins on the Table

Introduction to a series

playingwithelectiondata.substack.com

Another reminder: the House is not a continuing body electionlawblog.org?p=157565

Another reminder: the House is not a continuing body  #ELB

David French is one of my favorite opinion columnists. I often agree with his analysis and judgments, and when I don’t, I invariably find them thoughtful.  That’s why it’s distressing this morning to ...

electionlawblog.org

I know it's late Friday afternoon, but I've posted some thoughts about the president's speech on Substack: playingwithelectiondata.substack.com/p/that-was-...

That Was Something

A Quick, Election-Data Take on President Trump’s Speech

playingwithelectiondata.substack.com

For the data nerds out there, Stephen Richer has compiled a really nice catalog of all the large-scale election official investigations into non-citizen voter registration he could find. It's a great resource. declarenews.org/map-investi...

Word is spreading that the White House has relieved all three remaining EAC commissioners as of 4pm today.

Recommended reading. storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.u...

The Senate voted yesterday, 48-50, not to attach the SAVE America Act to the reconciliation act. Collins, McConnell, Murkowski, & Tillis were the R's who voted nay. Ernst (R) and Bennet (D) didn't vote. Otherwise, it was a strict party-line vote.

On net, Cornyn lost early votes 1:1 to Paxton at the precinct level, whereas Cornyn did better on net in mail voting. Too bad for Cornyn that almost no one votes by mail in TX.

For the curious: The filing deadline for SC state House of Representatives was March 30. Early voting in the primary begins today. The primary is June 9. From what I can tell, of 89 R's in the House, 84 are running for reelection w/ 24 facing primary opposition. That is all.

Christian Fong at the University of Michigan has published this interesting article on voter fraud, voter ID, and election trust in American Politics Research. doi.org/10.1177/153...

FWIW, the strongest correlation, at the precinct level, among statewide vote shares in GA is between Raffensperger (GOV) and Cooley (Sen.). This seems to indicate that the Kemp/Reagan wing of the GA Republican Party has a strong core but not a majority.

Here's a quick post about tonight's GA primary, with a look back to LA's primary, to boot. playingwithelectiondata.substack.com/p/will-geor...

Following up on yesterday's Substack post about primary turnout trends in 2026 vs. 2022, (playingwithelectiondata.substack.com/p/yet-anoth...), here's two graphs that update turnout in Georgia's advance voting for next Tuesday's primary.

I just published a piece on Substack about what we're seeing in primary elections this season, and what that portends for November. Check it out. playingwithelectiondata.substack.com/p/yet-anoth...

Graph of the day: Number of members of the House not running for reelection. Data from the amazing @mollyereynolds and the AP for 2026. 2026 stat as of today.

I've just posted on Substack about the administrative complexities of actually trying to implement the latest election administration executive order. playingwithelectiondata.substack.com/p/president...

The State Certification Testing of Election Systems National Conference is a great annual meeting. It will be held in Sacramento this summer. Check it out. Consider attending and submitting a proposal to speak. (Paper deadline approaching.) bsu-wpe-sites.s3.amazonaws.com/wp-content/...

Kevin Kosar posted about the president's latest election executive order so I didn't have to. @kevinkosar kevinrkosar.substack.com/p/several-t...

@BPC has just released a timely and important report on who among American voters possesses citizenship-proving documents. I'm delighted they found the Survey of the Performance of American Elections (produced by @mitelectionlab) useful. bipartisanpolicy.org/article/do-...

Do Documentary Proof of Citizenship Requirements Disadvantage One Party More Than the Other? • Bipartisan Policy Center

Analysis of the SAVE America Act and documentary proof of citizenship requirements shows that about 12% of registered voters lack common qualifying documents, with disparities across party affiliation, income, education, and race. These findings highlight potential impacts on voter access under proposed legislation.

bipartisanpolicy.org

Pocket veto, anyone?

Here's an important new article about how academics and election officials can work together to find ways to build trust in elections. www.cogitatiopress.com/politicsand... Title: How Research–Practice Partnerships Can Strengthen Experiments Designed to Build Trust in American Elections

Bookmark this: the University of Wisconsin Law School voter list litigation tracker: statedemocracy.law.wisc.edu/tracker-doj...

I re-ran the classic Tufte model predicting midterm congl election results using updated data. The model doesn't work as well as it once did & dRDI no longer influences seat loss. Confining the analysis to the most recent elections, it gives a prediction of a seat loss of ~ 38.

The call for participation in the 2026 Election Science, Reform, and Administration conference has just dropped. Submit your proposals for papers, roundtables, posters, and all the rest: esra-conference.org/2026-call-p...

2026 Call for Proposals

esra-conference.org

Congress geek alert, recommittal department: The four Democrats who voted to pass the SAVE Act also voted to recommit the bill to the committee. The recommittal vote failed 211-215 on a strict party-line vote.

Just listened to the Bongino podcast, so you don't have to, where DJT advocates for R's to nationalize elections. Puzzled why this is news, except that it illustrates how Pres Trump is still obsessed with claims that soberminded people of both parties long ago debunked.

This is a great video about very interesting research about voting technology. Definitely worth the look. www.youtube.com/watch?v=tbL...

Beyond the Hype: A Research Driven Look at Claims About New Voting Technology

Election Science Office Hours with Michael Specter & Delaney Gomen, Georgia TechProfessor Alvarez’s guest for this episode will be Michael Specter, Assistant...

youtube.com