λ³🎲

@cubiclogic.bsky.social

Imprecisely illogical

Some initial thoughts, and a complicated mix of feelings. Wow. I mean, Erdos problems are cool (I genuinely mean that), I didn't know about the Jacobian conjecture before it got disproved. But this newest batch from OpenAI hits home in a way the previous announcements did not.

"I ran Claude code on 96 specs for a popular difference-in-difference estimator with the identical specifications, ranging covariates only, for three languages (R, Python, Stata) and 2 packages for each. Different estimates — sometimes five times off" statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/07/27/5...

He fit the same statistical models with three different software and got much different estimates. It’s another dimension of the multiverse. | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Scie...

statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu

Quiz for people who studied ancient Greek at school πολύτροπος means (choose best, worst): - A man skilled in all ways of contending - Various minded man - The man of twists and turns driven time and again off course - Complicated man

Societies rightly spend a lot of money on regulating drug trials. Allowing large scale betting on these trial outcomes just creates incentives to distort findings. This should be immediately legislated out of existence.

Reuters Legal@legal.reuters.com · 3w ago

Prediction market platform Kalshi will start taking bets on the outcomes of clinical trials and FDA regulatory reviews, it said on Thursday, making drug-development odds public for the first time.

A sensor equipped Pakistani made ball is being used in the world cup and I and pretty unsure whether FIFA officials (as well as referees and VAR staff) are aware of its technology and possible shortcomings.

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