Calum Weir
@cwp-weir.bsky.social
Research Manager at ThinkLabour 📈 - Opinions all my own - He/Him Running: www.pollingpolis.co.uk
People often assume they know what Labour members think. We decided to ask them. The results might surprise you. Labour members back higher defence spending in an increasingly uncertain world and support reducing welfare spending.
Labour members ‘have tougher view on welfare than you might think’, poll suggests
Survey finds party members see health, the economy, cost of living and climate crisis among biggest challenges
theguardian.com
Some fun new driving test polling from us below!:
ThinkLabour@thinklabour.bsky.social · yesterdayKeeping test fees artificially low might sound like it helps with the cost of living. In reality, it leaves learners paying far more in extra lessons, lost opportunities, and even scalpers. Our polling suggests the public is more pragmatic than politicians assume.
Why is it still harder to book a driving test than get Glastonbury tickets? Our latest substack looks at why the driving test backlog still hasn't been fixed six years after the pandemic - and argues the real obstacle isn't logistics, it's politics.
Why Josh Widdecombe’s wife is a victim of the cost of living
Amelia Wood, Policy Advisor
thinklabour.substack.com
Here is the pollingpolis.co.uk average of where 2024 Labour voters are going. Notable uptick of returning 2024 voters and downtick (?) of Greens
For a bit more context, our summary is now showing an average Labour lead for the first time in a *while*
Calum Weir@cwp-weir.bsky.social · 5d agoFor anyone using pollingpolis.co.uk at the minute, would encourage you to turn off the LOESS average to just see how fast the momentum is moving for Labour. Not scientific but have tried to highlight it below:
For anyone using pollingpolis.co.uk at the minute, would encourage you to turn off the LOESS average to just see how fast the momentum is moving for Labour. Not scientific but have tried to highlight it below:
Latest leader approvals 🌹Burnham bumps up to +19, 8 higher than Keir’s high of 11. 🌳Badenoch down slightly to break even 🔶Davey drops back to -11 💚Polanski is at -24 ➡️Farage drops to another low, by far his lowest since the election at -32
The National Care Service has been promised before. Why could this time be different? Our latest substack by Policy Director, @abbyabhaya.bsky.social, explores the politics of care reform, intergenerational fairness, and whether Labour can finally deliver a National Care Service.
The debt of dignity - reviving the National Care Service
Abby Jitendra
thinklabour.substack.com
Slow news day! Some thoughts from a focus group here, feel free to read:
ThinkLabour@thinklabour.bsky.social · 2w agoToday Britain has a new Prime Minister. So we brought together a focus group with Labour considerers to ask a simple question: what do they actually think of Andy Burnham? Read about the challenges he faces in public opinion in our latest substack, by @cwp-weir.bsky.social
Today Britain has a new Prime Minister. So we brought together a focus group with Labour considerers to ask a simple question: what do they actually think of Andy Burnham? Read about the challenges he faces in public opinion in our latest substack, by @cwp-weir.bsky.social
Turn and Face the Strange.
Calum Weir, Research Manager
thinklabour.substack.com
Our first focus groups on Andy Burnham with Labour considerers with a spectrum of views. Interesting North/South divide - Southerners simply know less about him. There's hope he'll be more representative of "Labour values" than the previous government – will be important that he lives up to that.
ThinkLabour@thinklabour.bsky.social · 2w agoToday Britain has a new Prime Minister. So we brought together a focus group with Labour considerers to ask a simple question: what do they actually think of Andy Burnham? Read about the challenges he faces in public opinion in our latest substack, by @cwp-weir.bsky.social
Slow news day! Some thoughts from a focus group here, feel free to read:
ThinkLabour@thinklabour.bsky.social · 2w agoToday Britain has a new Prime Minister. So we brought together a focus group with Labour considerers to ask a simple question: what do they actually think of Andy Burnham? Read about the challenges he faces in public opinion in our latest substack, by @cwp-weir.bsky.social
Who is Labour for? With a new PM stepping into number 10 on Monday, that question has never been more important. At ThinkLabour, we’re keeping it front and centre. Yesterday we sat down with the Deputy Leader of the Labour party, Lucy Powell, to tackle it head on.
For anyone with even a passing interest in polling, this is a fantastic resource, created by @cwp-weir.bsky.social, Research Manager at @thinklabour.bsky.social, which collates all the latest public headline polling, but also pulls out demographic detail from the tables. www.pollingpolis.co.uk
Right, polling geeks. Who can guess which pollster from their houae effects? (Yes FoN is... quite obvious. But some suprises as well)
Calum Weir@cwp-weir.bsky.social · 3w agoYesterday, as a personal project, I put out a UK poll tracker: pollingpolis.co.uk It has UK Voting Intention, Best PM, Net Approval and Vote by 2024 Vote, Region and Age. A quick tour of how it works 🧵
Yesterday, as a personal project, I put out a UK poll tracker: pollingpolis.co.uk It has UK Voting Intention, Best PM, Net Approval and Vote by 2024 Vote, Region and Age. A quick tour of how it works 🧵
Hello! Outside of my work at @thinklabour.bsky.social, I’ve been squirrelling away at a polling aggregator. This is www.pollingpolis.co.uk! It has all the usual stuff but, crucially, also has a wee view for Age, Gender and Past Vote, plus much more for customising and sifting through. Have fun!
Very very very exciting but also I would imagine there’ll be a lot of:
The Guardian@theguardian.com · last mo.AI helps read papyrus scroll burnt to crisp during Vesuvius eruption
It looks like Labour both consolidated the progressive bloc and increased turnout to win in Makerfield Great rapid work by my research colleagues @christabelcoops.bsky.social @cwp-weir.bsky.social @dylancridland.bsky.social
Calum Weir@cwp-weir.bsky.social · 2mo agoI’m biased, but if you read any electoral strategy takes today, make it this one:
I’m biased, but if you read any electoral strategy takes today, make it this one:
ThinkLabour@thinklabour.bsky.social · 2mo agoA remarkable Labour win last night. The real lesson of Makerfield? In our latest substack, Christabel Cooper explains why rebuilding a larger progressive coalition, while persuading more transactional voters that Labour can stand up for them and deliver in office is the path to beating Reform.
A remarkable Labour win last night. The real lesson of Makerfield? In our latest substack, Christabel Cooper explains why rebuilding a larger progressive coalition, while persuading more transactional voters that Labour can stand up for them and deliver in office is the path to beating Reform.
The real lesson of Makerfield
Christabel Cooper, Director of Research
thinklabour.substack.com
It is extremely important that Labour understands that the movement of voters between Lab and Ref was not the crucial factor, it was consolidation of the anti-Ref vote and Lab voters turning out in droves. Otherwise Burnham will make the same mistakes as Starmer in targeting only one set of voters.
Nathan@nwylabour.bsky.social · 2mo agoConcerned about this 'swathes of ex-Reform voters returning to Labour' narrative taking hold. On the numbers it does not seem likely to be true - Reform got more votes at this by-election than they did across the constituency's wards at the locals.
Arresting and amusing statistic from @christabelcoops.bsky.social here: a majority of voters (52 per cent) believe that Angela Rayner was born into a middle class or upper class family, rising to more than 60 per cent of Green voters:
Too posh to poll? What happens when voters think politicians are more privileged than they really are
Christabel Cooper, Director of Research, ThinkLabour
thinklabour.substack.com
Today @thinklabour.bsky.social publishes our report on Muslim voters, dispelling some misconceptions. Muslims - like most other Brits - prioritise the cost of living above any other issue including the conflict in Gaza. thinklabour.co.uk/thinking/gon...
Gone, but not forever: Why many British Muslims fell out of love with Labour - but remain open to return • ThinkLabour
ThinkLabour is a think tank working at the heart of British politics to support the Labour movement with research, strategy, and policy development.
thinklabour.co.uk
Full results on whether Taylor Swift is bigger than The Beatles available here: yougov.com/en-gb/daily-...
Which of the following comes closest to your view? | Daily Question
Which of the following comes closest to your view?
yougov.com
Imagine you live in Burnley, all your family and friends are there. You get offered a new job in Manchester. Trainline tells you the train takes 45 minutes to go 25 miles. And it would take you 20 minutes to drive to the station. It also tells you there is only one train an hour to work. 🧵:
After tough local election results, many are saying Labour can no longer hold together a broad electoral coalition. They argue Labour’s voters are now too divided by class, culture and values. Our first report from ThinkLabour disagrees. thinklabour.co.uk/thinking/who...
Who Is Labour For? • ThinkLabour
ThinkLabour is a think tank working at the heart of British politics to support the Labour movement with research, strategy, and policy development.
thinklabour.co.uk
Today marks the launch of ThinkLabour! 🌹We are a unique political organisation dedicated to helping Labour govern confidently, win elections, and deliver lasting change.Here is what we are building 👇
We’ve built an interactive game to show what the pressure of adult social care looks like in practice. In Run the Council, you take charge of a fictional council for four years. Can you run ‘Northfield Council’ amongst mounting financial pressures? Play here: www.labourtogether.uk/council-sim
Council Simulation — Labour Together
labourtogether.uk
Rising energy prices need more than 'wait and see.' @jameshowat.bsky.social sets out the case for capping prices at pre-war levels, a temporary income tax rise, and capping welfare, pension and wage uplifts at 2% to break the inflationary cycle. labourtogether.uk/blog/cap-energy-prices-raise-taxes
Cap energy prices, raise taxes — Labour Together
The conventional wisdom in Whitehall is that we should "wait and see" before doing anything about rising energy prices, and then only help with "targeted measures” for the most vulnerable people. That...
labourtogether.uk