Interesting evolution with #Dolphin today. After its core became increasingly large and disheveled, a new, much smaller eyewall formed. This will allow it to restrengthen somewhat with a smaller core. Still, it is a very large storm!

New ENSO plot! There's now a scatterplot comparing Niño 3.4 (or RONI) to the ENSO Longitude Index. Good way to tell how east- or west-based it is! So far given an ELI slightly more east than 1997 with similar RONI, it would imply that 2026 is similarly or even more east-based

In July, the equatorial subsurface east of the dateline was warmer than it has ever been, beating 1997's peak by 0.36°C! This value tends to peak in the fall so we may still have more to go. Yet another record broken by this very strong El Niño event!

#Dolphin has cleared out a nice eye today, but it won't stay this way for long. A recent microwave pass shows there is an outer eyewall, so yet another ERC will commence soon. This will likely be quite a big storm as it approaches the western part of the basin

Watching the sunrise on strong tropical cyclones never gets old. Category 5 #Dolphin certainly impressing

#Dolphin has intensified impressively quickly and sports a pinhole eye. Likely not far from super typhoon strength already! It looks likely to undergo an ERC soon, but conditions remain extremely favorable for a while, allowing a very intense storm. JTWC forecasts 165kt!

Lots of bursting convection south of #Dolphin's center right now. Almost certainly at least part of an eyewall developing in here, and it's probably just about a typhoon already. Will likely see RI to a super typhoon begin some point soon

#92C looks to have developed now with the help of a very strong WWB. It will traverse much of the West Pacific, including the patch of record SSTs, and most likely end up a powerful typhoon

#Genevieve is the East Pacific's first major hurricane of the year. Look at all the rotating convective bursts around the clearing eye! Will be nice eye candy as it travels WNW through the open Pacific

#Bertha is trying to relocate its LLC as the NE side weakens and a potent MLC tries to drill to the surface. Some nice inflow into the convection now. Shear remains high so we won't see those hurricane model solutions come to pass but would allow it to survive longer if LLC remains well-defined

#Bertha is an impressively decoupled tropical cyclone. The LLC is over 100 miles away from the main convective complex! Yet the LLC remains very well defined, so a relocation would be difficult. Most likely it will remain weak and disorganized

#Bertha remains quite sheared today. A good example of it this morning, with an attempted convective burst that ultimately fails and is sheared off the LLC. There's enough convection for gradual pressure falls and some stronger winds in here, but Bertha remains disheveled

#TD2 has a bit more convection near its center than yesterday, but it is displaced, and the present NE shear is very apparent. Given N movement and lack of organization, it will likely not intensify very much before approaching the mouth of the Mississippi in a couple days and interacts with land

#TD2 has gotten itself together rather quickly, becoming a TC with a solid footprint of rotation. It will likely strengthen in the next couple of days, but future land interaction & NE shear will try to keep a lid on it, keeping it at TS strength. Worth watching if it dips south

Niño 3.4 has hit +2°C, earlier than any other year, including 1997 which took until the end of August! However, RONI shows isn't so far from the old records, and is on track with 1997. Very impressive with stronger -ENSO in January, and even in RONI terms could surpass 1997

As #Bavi approaches the Ishigaki area, we'll have a solid trove of data come in, both from Ishigaki's radar and several AMeDAS stations in the area. Radar will look particularly interesting with its very large outer eyewall. See it at cyclonicwx.com/interactive/!

With #Bavi's ERC over and a mostly clear eye, you can see down to the low cloud and ocean again. Mesmerizing to watch up close, with Himawari Target Area (and GOES Mesoscale Sector) visible imagery now available at 500m resolution!

With #Bavi making its trek towards Taiwan and the Ryukyu Islands, I've added some more data you can see from the JMA that will be useful this season! The first is velocity data from the radars in addition to reflectivity.

#Bavi looks to be beginning another eyewall replacement cycle, with a strong band wrapping around the eyewall and developing moat between the two. Will cause very high winds to scrape Guam, but Rota is expected to see the worst impacts from the stronger inner eyewall

#Bavi is getting into range of PGUA. Reminder that you can see reflectivity and velocity data for it, both plots and interactive, and even see reflectivity/velocity readouts! Great new tool for tracking

#Bavi appears to be undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle currently, with a much less stable eye and multiple rings of colder convection near the eye. This may weaken it slightly, but it will also expand its wind field. Whatever happens still a very dangerous storm on the way

#Bavi is now rapidly intensifying, having partly cleared out its eye. It has several days to continue intensifying amid favorable conditions (outflow is a sign), and will likely be a very dangerous super typhoon by the time it reaches the Marianas Islands on Monday (local time)

Did someone order shrimp? #Bavi

With TS 9W beginning to gain strength and make an approach towards the Marianas Island chain, I've added another couple of features. First is velocity data from NEXRAD radars, and next is a readout of any shaded layer displayed. Good to see the specific value at a certain point!

We've got widespread convection at the dateline, with a month straight of westerly anomalies there...this is what a coupled El Niño event looks like. Impressive for June!

#Mekkhala is trying its best against the high shear...but its structure has long been shot. It has that "halficane" look to it from Ishigaki radar. Always nice to be able to see into a storm's structure like this!

A couple new features today: see the IR4 color table! This one is quite popular and now available. Plus opacity controls! Control the opacity of most layers, and even opacity above/below a cutoff value of your choice! Click the colorbar to begin, and click the marker to remove it

Alex Boreham@cyclonicwx.bsky.social · last mo.

Huge site update: I've got a new, interactive page up that makes dealing with geographically inflexible plots a thing of the past! You have unlimited flexibility at cyclonicwx.com/interactive/. This page comes with many features, which I will outline in the thread below:

Huge site update: I've got a new, interactive page up that makes dealing with geographically inflexible plots a thing of the past! You have unlimited flexibility at cyclonicwx.com/interactive/. This page comes with many features, which I will outline in the thread below:

The 15-day running mean ENSO Longitude Index is setting a new eastward record today, reflecting a strong El Niño event for June and an unusual amount of warm water further east. This metric is relatively resistant to AGW, so this event is in rarified air for this time of year

#92W is getting going today after a long period of struggling. It has healthier convection and PGUA radar reveals a solid MLC along with broader surface rotation. Probably will be a TC sooner rather than later