Danny Crichton

@dannycrichton.com

Write and design Riskgaming scenarios on tech, science and politics. Partner, Research at Lux Capital.

I had to restrain myself due to luggage, but London book 'haul' from Daunt, Foyles, Waterstones plus Blackwell's at University of Manchester. Yes I am very behind on Jacaranda – I forgot to pick up a copy in Paris

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Speaking of global nuclear war, I wrote about @AnnieJacobsen's new book "Biological War: A Scenario" and how it compares with "Nuclear War: A Scenario." In short: the two books highlight the difference between well-defined catastrophes compared to the infinite uncertainty of bio

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I didn't promote last week, but Kim Jong-un is on a roll – no one has bested the U.S. better in the past decade. How did he build a nuclear weapons program against all odds, and why are top U.S. policymakers resigned to their fate? Lessons from the Hermit Kingdom ⬇️

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As a rent-stabilized NYC resident VC, I am the unique voter that benefits from combo of Mamdani's socialist rent freeze plus Trump's libertarian pro-QSBS improvements plus carried interest deductions. Yes, it all needs reform, but I will take my win-win

This weekend's essay from me – sorry, it's 5K words, but if you have the attention span: Chinese economic development, SV workaholics, factory work, what Ren Zhengfei and Steve Jobs share, the most beautiful data center in the world, and comments on the challenges of journalism ⬇️

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1/ This article in WotR on why South Korea shouldn't build nuclear submarines is a perfect example of why other countries should ignore the diminished ambitions of DC policymakers and just chart their own strategic course: warontherocks.com/south-korea...

South Korea Could Build Nuclear Submarines, But It Shouldn’t

In late May 2026, South Korean Defense Minister Ahn Gyu-back unveiled a roadmap to achieving one of Seoul’s top military acquisition goals:

warontherocks.com

Mahmud in this article does a nice job analyzing this debate, and it dovetails with The Weaponization of Expertise: How Elites Fuel Populism by Jacob Hale Russell and Dennis Patterson, which was a solid book on the subject last year.

Sound like a platform you use today? Neil Postman: "The telegraph is suited only to the flashing of messages, each to be quickly replaced by a more up-to-date message. Facts push other facts into and then out of consciousness at speeds that neither permit nor require evaluation"

I just love that a whole new generation of starry-eyed tech policy professionals are going to go from "the government needs to solve all of our problems, please regulate us" to "oh my god regulation is so bad in the U.S." We all make mistakes in our youth

As I wrote, "Suddenly, the gaoloise-smoking, Burgundy-drinking, anti-American French intellectuel complaining about European vassalage had a point. Politicians first perked up, and now they are starting to take action."

IVF is growing rapidly, but so are its costs. To bring those costs down, doctors and future parents need better analytical tools to optimize IVF success. Today, Alife received approval from the FDA for its AI tool for embryo selection – truly the life of lifesciences research

Are AI data centers in space viable? They will be if we build the right infra. That's why Lux led a $90M round into Observable Space, which is using lasers to create higher bandwidth comms between satellites and Earth-based ground stations:

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There are times when you just wonder whether we are trying to purposely torpedo the American economy. Are we trying to be globally competitive? It's hard for international businesses to invest domestically when the airports are shut down…

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AI won't eliminate journalists, unless your idea of a journalist is to read social media all day and reblog random tidbits to pump traffic à la 2013. AI is not going to hustle down sources in person, build up a deep sourcing network and develop the trust needed to secure scoops

"If it can be automated with AI, it will be automated with AI, so start planning now." I was listening to a major journalism entrepreneur about newsrooms, but the same truth applies across media. The final art is the goal, not the tools that go into making it.

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My partner Laurence Pevsner has a great op-ed today in the FT on Europe's industrial policy challenges with space launch capabilities in the wake of SpaceX's impending IPO. It builds on his Riskgaming scenario Dead Reckoning that @Lux_Capital ran at Chatham House last month.

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