This is the unfortunate choice after over 5 months of a war that should never have started.
Financial Times@financialtimes.com · 17h agoTrump trapped between escalation and an Iran deal on Tehran’s terms ft.trib.al/qOInlaS
Dalia Dassa Kaye
@dassakaye.bsky.social
Middle East/geopolitics/diplomacy analyst. Current: Senior Fellow, UCLA Burkle Center. Former: Director, RAND Center for Middle East Public Policy. More info here: https://www.daliadassakaye.net/.
Financial Times@financialtimes.com · 17h agoI wrote a book challenging such assumptions if readers are interested in a different perspective:
sup.org
Dalia Dassa Kaye@dassakaye.bsky.social · 21h agoThis article encapsulates the deeply entrenched views in Washington toward Iran as much as Iran's deeply entrenched views of Washington. These narratives reinforce the assumption that the problem is always about them, not us.
very bad news. follows aspects of the previous Israel-Iran shadow war, including reported attacks on water infrastructure in 2020. Once the open war between the US and Iran eventually (hopefully) concludes, the US and Iran could be engaged in their own 'shadow' war for months and years ahead.
A New Level in the Cyber War between Israel and Iran | INSS
Cyber warfare is conducted secretly and anonymously, unless one of the sides in the confrontation has an interest in exposing it. The attacks are generally launched without claiming responsibility or ...
inss.org.il
The New York Times@nytimes.com · 4d agoBreaking News: Water supplies in at least seven U.S. states were targeted by cyberattacks that officials say appear to be the work of Iran.
Just came across an article I wrote in 2012 warning against an Israeli attack on Iran and how a post-attack Middle East could be the worst of all outcomes, including for Israel. But Netanyahu never believed this and unfortunately neither did Trump.
Israel's Risky Option on Iran
While a nuclear-armed Iran that hasn't been attacked is dangerous, one that has been attacked may be much more likely to brandish its capabilities, to make sure it does not face an attack again, write...
rand.org
So important to document the human costs of the Iran war and its ripple effects across the globe.
The Associated Press@apnews.com · last wk.People across seven countries share stories of spiking gas prices, goodbyes filled with fear, livelihoods pushed closer to the edge — and days that no longer looked the way they once did after the Iran war began.
Enrichment for Saudis; enrichment for Trump. A win-win.
The New York Times@nytimes.com · last wk.President Trump’s decision to grant Saudi Arabia access to American nuclear technology aligns with his administration’s push to accelerate domestically backed nuclear power projects around the world. But it may also help enrich those in his orbit. www.nytimes.com/2026/07/26/u...
And remember these reports less than a week before the US started the war? One of the many reasons folks were concerned about going to war with Iran.
Trump’s top general foresees acute risks in an attack on Iran
The Joint Chiefs of Staff chairman has said that a lack of munitions and allied support could mean greater danger for U.S. troops, people familiar with the talks say.
washingtonpost.com
Dalia Dassa Kaye@dassakaye.bsky.social · last wk.And here's a CSIS report from December 2025 about this very challenge, all drawing on publicly available data.
Worth recalling that there is publicly available evidence that the depleted stockpile issue was a concern BEFORE the war and DURING the Trump administration, especially given experience of the June 2025 attack which Trump chose to join.
With missile stockpiles low and tensions with Iran high, US moves to increase weapons
America’s recent use of missile interceptors has left supplies low. An Iranian counterattack would deepen the dent. The U.S. is now trying to restock.
csmonitor.com
Aaron Rupar@atrupar.com · last wk.WELKER: Is America backing away from a larger attack bc our stockpile has been depleted? WALTZ: We have to take a step back. A lot of our stockpiles were depleted because of Biden WELKER: But you acknowledge they're depleted? WALTZ: No. And the people leaking this nonsense deserve to be in jail
The latest example of what happens when you have personalized gov't and no normal policy process. Also, Biden invested an inexplicable amount of time trying to link the nuclear carrot to Saudi normalization with Israel with zero results.
The Washington Post@washingtonpost.com · 2w agoBreaking news: Saudi Arabia needs to normalize relations with Israel to receive the U.S. nuclear technology it has long sought, President Trump said, adding a new condition to an agreement and throwing the future of that deal into confusion.
Going from bad to worse as Iran war further regionalizes. The looming risk of a Red Sea closure/disruption combined with continuing Hormuz closure appears to be happening. Finding an offramp for Hormuz couldn't come soon enough.
Bloomberg News@bloomberg.com · 2w agoBREAKING: The Houthis say they will impose a maritime blockade on Saudi Arabia
Some of the more interesting ideas for an offramp to US-Iran escalation focus on regional solutions. @yarbatman.bsky.social and his group are thinking creatively about how to get out of the Hormuz crisis that this war unfortunately created. Even if politically difficult it's a basis to build on.
How a 'Hormuz Fee' Could Work
A regional fee would institutionalize the kind of positive-sum diplomacy that can prevent further disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.
bourseandbazaar-substack.org
very bad news and situation is only likely to worsen. also while hopefully the missing service member is found and Jordan is friendly territory, this is a reminder that American service members are at risk of being captured if something goes wrong on Iranian territory.
The New York Times@nytimes.com · 3w agoBreaking News: Two U.S. service members were killed and a third was missing after an Iranian attack on a base in Jordan, according to the Pentagon. Follow live updates.
Trump's repeated claims that the door to diplomacy is open and that Iran wants a deal mean little if he thinks it's still possible to reopen Hormuz through force.
US-Iran state of play looking very bad today/tonight and could get a lot worse if Iran makes good on its threats to 'crush' region's infrastructure.
Iran and US step up attacks, release of American in dispute
Iran and the United States exchanged intensifying fire on Thursday in a week-long escalation that has largely unraveled last month's truce, while Tehran disputed President Donald Trump's claim that a...
reuters.com
if this scenario unfolds, it could be catastrophic and would require substantial US forces. and it likely won't work. but we can't rule it out given the strategic incoherence in Washington rn.
Dalia Dassa Kaye@dassakaye.bsky.social · 3w agoExcellent analysis from @hamidrezaaz.bsky.social on X suggesting the current US strike pattern may be setting the stage for ground troops to seize Iran's southern coastal area. If accurate, this may not just be another round of attacks before more talks but an attempt to solve Hormuz through force.
Excellent analysis from @hamidrezaaz.bsky.social on X suggesting the current US strike pattern may be setting the stage for ground troops to seize Iran's southern coastal area. If accurate, this may not just be another round of attacks before more talks but an attempt to solve Hormuz through force.
At what point do we acknowledge that sustained attacks on Iranian territory and counter attacks on US bases in the region are a return to war? Not calling this war doesn't make it less of a war, one that never ended and should never have started.
The New York Times@nytimes.com · 3w agoThe U.S. appeared to expand its targets in Iran, and Iranian forces on Thursday launched more attacks on bases belonging to U.S. allies in the Middle East, as the fighting over control of the Strait of Hormuz extended into a sixth straight day. Follow live updates.
Of course. The only consistent message in Trump's statements on this Iran debacle is that Iran can never have a nuclear weapon, which it didn't have before this war.
Bloomberg News@bloomberg.com · 3w agoPresident Trump backed away from his plan to impose a 20% charge on cargo shipments through the Strait of Hormuz after the proposal was widely panned as impractical.
"Absent some out-of-the-box plan no one has thought of, Trump’s options are narrow and might not work." Good summary of the miserable state of play that this reckless war has wrought.
CNN@cnn.com · 4w ago"President Donald Trump's Iran entanglement is beginning to resemble a visual illusion known as the Penrose stairs, which endlessly climb and descend but always end up in the same place," writes Stephen Collinson | Analysis https://cnn.it/4h1Cm4e
it's so bad some pubs are even shutting down their fish and chip fryers!
Bloomberg News@bloomberg.com · 4w agoThe UK grid operator issued a rare summer warning, citing tight electricity supplies as a blistering heat wave strains energy systems across Europe
is there any evidence to date that Rutte's obsequious posture toward Trump has produced policy shifts favorable to Europe/NATO?
The Washington Post@washingtonpost.com · 4w agoAt a NATO summit, Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen said her country would defend its territory as President Trump revived his longtime demand for control of Greenland.
here we go again--threats on civilian infrastructure.
Aaron Rupar@atrupar.com · 4w agoTrump, sitting next to Zelenskyy: "In one day, we could knock down every single bridge in Iran. There's not a thing they can do about it ... if we have to, we'll take them out. They have desalinization plants. We'll take them out if we have to ... maybe we'll take over Kharg island."
The thing is, Trump doesn't have the final say on whether talks continue. Let's see how Iran responds. But without even the ambiguous MOU as a framework, moving back to de-escalation will be far more difficult, let alone talks toward a final deal.
The Associated Press@apnews.com · 4w agoBREAKING: President Trump says the interim agreement with Iran is "over" after launching new strikes, but he will allow talks to continue.
Very bad news. There is no way out of this mess without diplomacy.
Bloomberg News@bloomberg.com · 4w agoUS President Donald Trump said his tentative ceasefire with Iran is over
US-Iran state of play not looking good. Yes, there are good reasons neither side wants a return to full-scale war. But that doesn't mean escalation won't lead there. Or this round is contained but the MOU is essentially OBE.
Joyce Karam@joycekaram.bsky.social · 4w agoMeanwhile, US is bombing Iran after Iran struck ships in Hormuz. MOU signed 3 weeks ago seems ink on paper Sanctions relief revoked Inspectors kept out Hormuz open but unstable Unclear if frozen funds released Centcom hasn’t released targets yet
Yes, it's good that the war is over. But let's not pretend the MOU is more than it is--Trump cutting his losses in ways that will make Americans and the world worse off. Did we really think the clause suggesting the management of the strait would be sorted out later would work out well?
Bloomberg News@bloomberg.com · last mo.Oman has told European officials the Strait of Hormuz won't return to its pre-war status and ships may have to be charged fees. Read more: bloom.bg/4g7UF7I 📷: AP Photo
