Claims have circulated that UK actuaries have predicted that billions will die beyond 2C of warming, forming the basis for a new campaign. But did they really say that? New post by me at climatetippingpoints.info checking it out (tl;dr: no): climatetippingpoints.info/2026/08/11/f... #ClimateChange

Fact-check: have actuaries predicted that billions will die beyond 2 degrees?

Some campaigners are claiming that UK actuaries (who measure risk for insurers) have predicted billions of deaths due to climate change beyond 2C of warming, partly due to tipping points & feed…

climatetippingpoints.info

Claims have circulated that UK actuaries have predicted that billions will die beyond 2C of warming, forming the basis for a new campaign. But did they really say that? New post by me at climatetippingpoints.info checking it out (tl;dr: no): climatetippingpoints.info/2026/08/11/f... #ClimateChange

Fact-check: have actuaries predicted that billions will die beyond 2 degrees?

Some campaigners are claiming that UK actuaries (who measure risk for insurers) have predicted billions of deaths due to climate change beyond 2C of warming, partly due to tipping points & feed…

climatetippingpoints.info

New World Weather Attribution analysis: "at 1.4°C of global warming, extreme heat is already reaching the limits of our societies’ ability to cope." www.theguardian.com/environment/... #ClimateChange #ClimateCrisis #Heatwave #ClimateAdaptation

European heatwave is worst ever and impossible without climate crisis, scientists say

Study also finds high humidity means people in hundreds of cities are enduring their worst ever heat stress

theguardian.com

I reviewed 'Tipping Out of Trouble' (for @nature.com), a new book by Marten Scheffer on what we can learn from past societal transformations to ensure a good rather than dystopian Anthropocene. Free sharing link: rdcu.be/fnmEA #ClimateChange #NatureLoss #Sustainability #TippingPoints #BookReview

Nature@nature.com · 3mo ago

Book review 📚 Sustainability or dystopia? What past patterns tell us about where society is heading go.nature.com/43ltT46

I reviewed 'Tipping Out of Trouble' (for @nature.com), a new book by Marten Scheffer on what we can learn from past societal transformations to ensure a good rather than dystopian Anthropocene. Free sharing link: rdcu.be/fnmEA #ClimateChange #NatureLoss #Sustainability #TippingPoints #BookReview

Nature@nature.com · 3mo ago

Book review 📚 Sustainability or dystopia? What past patterns tell us about where society is heading go.nature.com/43ltT46

New at climatetippingpoints.info: 'News Explainer: Is the AMOC closer to collapse than thought?' There was lots of coverage a few weeks ago of a new study constraining AMOC decline, but some confusion too - here's what the study said, & how it was covered: climatetippingpoints.info/2026/05/06/n...

News Explainer: Is the AMOC closer to collapse than thought?

The first of a new occassional ‘News Explainer’ series, briefly summarising recent news on climate tipping points (and checking how well the media reported it). First up, a paper by Por…

climatetippingpoints.info

New at climatetippingpoints.info: 'News Explainer: Is the AMOC closer to collapse than thought?' There was lots of coverage a few weeks ago of a new study constraining AMOC decline, but some confusion too - here's what the study said, & how it was covered: climatetippingpoints.info/2026/05/06/n...

News Explainer: Is the AMOC closer to collapse than thought?

The first of a new occassional ‘News Explainer’ series, briefly summarising recent news on climate tipping points (and checking how well the media reported it). First up, a paper by Por…

climatetippingpoints.info

Considering a Masters? To celebrate the new Sussex School for Progressive Futures, Sussex Uni. has announced 10 £10k scholarships for selected courses, including our Climate Change, Development & Policy MSc! Details here 👇 + a Virtual Masters Open Day on 29/11/25: www.sussex.ac.uk/study/fees-f...

I had a great chat with @smartcookies.bsky.social podcast a little while back, covering climate change, denialism, doomism, tipping points, and geoengineering. Watch here www.youtube.com/watch?v=OoxH... or listen via wherever you get your podcasts! www.patreon.com/the_smart_co... #ClimateChange

Joe Rogan claims the EARTH is cooling down. I talk to an actual CLIMATE scientist to dispel the BS

YouTube video by The Smart Cookies Podcast

youtube.com

Smart Cookies podcast@smartcookies.bsky.social · 10mo ago

Podcaster Joe Rogan keeps claiming the EARTH is cooling down. I talk to @davidamckay.bsky.social (an actual CLIMATE scientist) to dispel the BS 👇🏻 youtu.be/OoxHZnv0ads #climatechange #joerogan #climateaction

I had a great chat with @smartcookies.bsky.social podcast a little while back, covering climate change, denialism, doomism, tipping points, and geoengineering. Watch here www.youtube.com/watch?v=OoxH... or listen via wherever you get your podcasts! www.patreon.com/the_smart_co... #ClimateChange

Joe Rogan claims the EARTH is cooling down. I talk to an actual CLIMATE scientist to dispel the BS

YouTube video by The Smart Cookies Podcast

youtube.com

Smart Cookies podcast@smartcookies.bsky.social · 10mo ago

Podcaster Joe Rogan keeps claiming the EARTH is cooling down. I talk to @davidamckay.bsky.social (an actual CLIMATE scientist) to dispel the BS 👇🏻 youtu.be/OoxHZnv0ads #climatechange #joerogan #climateaction

Apropos of recent AMOC news, I've finally gotten round to updating this AMOC tipping explainer from a couple years back with some of the flurry of papers published since then - check it out if you'd like some more background: climatetippingpoints.info/2023/08/15/a... #AMOC #TippingPoints #Climate

Shutdown: can climate change make ocean currents collapse?

A recent study renewed worries that the ‘AMOC’ – a key set of ocean currents – could soon pass a tipping point and shutdown this century, with major ramifications for the cl…

climatetippingpoints.info

Writing this in 2019, there was a small cottage industry in dodgy Arctic sea ice trend-fitting to claim collapse by 2022. Instead, it's plateaued, in line with projected 1st ice-free summer in 2030s/40s plus natural variability. A case study in power of process understanding vs. naïve trend-fitting!

Fact-Check: will an ice-free Arctic trigger a climate catastrophe?

Claim: A summer ice-free Arctic (called by some the “Blue Ocean Event”) will happen within the next few years and will cause an abrupt worsening of climate change and possible runaway f…

climatetippingpoints.info

The Guardian@theguardian.com · last yr.

Dramatic slowdown in melting of Arctic sea ice surprises scientists

Quote from me on this. Obviously not good, but not unexpected - the more warming there is, the harder it gets for natural carbon sinks to keep pace with rising CO2, but in absolute terms we still expect them to keep on taking up carbon in to the future (just not as big a % of emissions as so far).

New Scientist@newscientist.com · last yr.

Climate change is increasingly affecting the ability of Earth’s natural carbon sinks to soak up excess CO2, and this means more of the greenhouse gas we emit is staying in the atmosphere, leading to further warming.

I've wanted to make this video for literal years, and finally summoned the courage. Is permafrost *really* a climate time bomb? Thank you @davidamckay.bsky.social for the input! youtu.be/97-egzC-xjk

Is Permafrost Really a Climate Time Bomb?

YouTube video by ClimateAdam

youtu.be

Seen a #TippingPoints story recently about the SMOC (the AMOC's southern sibling) abruptly reversing? Thankfully, it's not true (seems a press release got overenthusiastic). Want to know what the paper behind it really said? Read this from the lead author instead: theconversation.com/completely-u...

‘Completely unexpected’: Antarctic sea ice may be in terminal decline due to rising Southern Ocean salinity

Scientists once thought Antarctica might hold onto its sea ice as the world warmed. No longer.

theconversation.com

John Kennedy@micefearboggis.bsky.social · last yr.

Note that the words “reversal”, “circulation”, “collapse”, and “SMOC” do not appear in the paper, only the press release. www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/...

Seen a #TippingPoints story recently about the SMOC (the AMOC's southern sibling) abruptly reversing? Thankfully, it's not true (seems a press release got overenthusiastic). Want to know what the paper behind it really said? Read this from the lead author instead: theconversation.com/completely-u...

‘Completely unexpected’: Antarctic sea ice may be in terminal decline due to rising Southern Ocean salinity

Scientists once thought Antarctica might hold onto its sea ice as the world warmed. No longer.

theconversation.com

John Kennedy@micefearboggis.bsky.social · last yr.

Note that the words “reversal”, “circulation”, “collapse”, and “SMOC” do not appear in the paper, only the press release. www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/...

I was on BBC Radio Scotland last week talking about whether the recent very sunny & dry followed by wet weather in Scotland & rUK has been a case of "weather whiplash" - you can listen in here: www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/..., & read my write-up: medium.com/p/82e39321740c #ClimateChange #SciComm

Is Britain’s spring suffering from a case of weather whiplash?

This text is based on my comments on a BBC Radio Scotland panel on May 27th 2025, in which we talked about the phenomenon of “weather…

medium.com

NEW – ‘Significant’ risk of Amazon forest dieback if global warming overshoots 1.5C | @ayeshatandon.carbonbrief.org w/ comment from @gergmunday.bsky.social Nico Wunderling @davidamckay.bsky.social David Lapola @chrisd-jones.bsky.social

‘Significant’ risk of Amazon forest dieback if global warming overshoots 1.5C - Carbon Brief

Even passing 1.5C of global warming temporarily would trigger a “significant” risk of Amazon forest “dieback”, says a new study.

buff.ly

Introducing the special inaugural double issue of Dialogues on Climate Change @dialoguescc.bsky.social, with 27 authors addressing the state of research in 20 articles on hotly debated topics! Volume 1 Issue 1: journals.sagepub.com/toc/dcca/1/1 Volume 2 Issue 1: journals.sagepub.com/toc/dcca/2/1

Going to @egu.eu #EGU25 today? I'll be speaking remotely about Holocene climate stability (and whether or not it means we're in a self-stabilising climate attractor, or just got lucky) & the #HothouseEarth hypothesis at 1620 CEST in Room F1 / online: meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU25/EGU25-...

Come work with us at Uni. Sussex Geography! We're looking for a 1yr maternity cover Assist. Prof., teaching on the Earth system, climate change, & biogeography, starting in August. Details here: jobs.sussex.ac.uk/job/003194b4... #AcademicJobs #AcademicSky #Geography #UKHE #ClimateScience

Assistant Professor in Physical Geography Ref: 40324 (Fixed Term, Maternity Cover) - Job page - University of Sussex Job Search

jobs.sussex.ac.uk

Two decades of climate tipping points research: Progress and outlook New article online first in @dialoguescc.bsky.social by @davidamckay.bsky.social journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10....

I recently spoke with @jessimckenzi.bsky.social at the @thebulletin.org for their new special issue on climate #TippingPoints - lots of great pieces & different views, and you can check out the full interview with me here (including conjuring a new meta-metaphor!): thebulletin.org/2025/03/meta...

‘Metaphors can grow legs’: David Armstrong McKay on tipping points

David Armstrong McKay is a lecturer and researcher at the University of Sussex and the lead author of a 2022 paper that reassessed the risk of all the tipping elements first identified in 2008.

thebulletin.org

Jessica McKenzie@jessimckenzi.bsky.social · last yr.

I'm delighted to say that the issue of the @thebulletin.org magazine that my colleague Dan Drollette and I have been working on for months, all about tipping points, is out today. My introduction to the issue is here: thebulletin.org/premium/2025...

I'm co-convening a research session at this year's Global Tipping Points Conference in Exeter, June 30th-July 3rd - abstracts presenting your latest research on Earth System Tipping Points and Risks welcome by March 19th! #EarthSystemScience #ClimateScience #TippingPoints

Global Systems Institute@gsiexeter.bsky.social · last yr.

👉 Only 1 week left to submit abstracts for the research and poster sessions at the Global Tipping Points conference 2025. Submit your abstract here: global-tipping-points.org/conference-2... 📅 Deadline: 19 March

The weakening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation could be bolstering rainfall over the Amazon, reducing the risk it will reach a tipping point

Slowdown of critical ocean current may preserve the Amazon rainforest

The weakening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation could be bolstering rainfall over the Amazon, reducing the risk it will reach a tipping point

newscientist.com

New blogpost: *On the Point of Tipping* [some thoughts-in-progress (that ended up quite long...) on the uses & limitations of climate tipping points as a scientific metaphor & model] gaiaexmachina.wordpress.com/2025/01/28/o... #TippingPoints #ClimateChange #EarthSystemScience #PhilosophyOfScience

On the Point of Tipping (or, why tipping points are useful, but should not be reified)

It’s perhaps surprising that it’s taken as many as three whole posts here for me to get on to the topic of tipping points, given my recent academic and outreach work. I’ve been thinking about writi…

gaiaexmachina.wordpress.com

The abstract submission deadline for #EGU25 is tomorrow 12GMT/13CET - if you're working on nonlinear human-Earth system interactions, then consider submitting your latest research to our session! #EGU #EarthSystemScience #TippingPoints #Anthropocene

David A. McKay@davidamckay.bsky.social · 2y ago

Thinking of going to @eurogeosciences.bsky.social GA2025? We have a session on 'Earth resilience, tipping points and human-Earth system interactions in the Anthropocene' - abstract deadline is Wednesday 15th Jan. 13:00 CET! meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU25/sessio... #EGU #EarthSystemScience

Many things familiar to me in this article on the issues stemming from precarious ECR contracts (in some of my first postdoc projects, the zero hours contract I had to be on didn't even allow access to the Uni's *library*, let alone a desk, webprofile, or a long enough contract to write a paper in).

gillian rose@profgillian.bsky.social · 2y ago

an important report on precarity in UK geography departments: “Whilst we cannot take full responsibility for the endemic structural problems within UK Higher Education, nor can we cede responsibility for caring about our colleagues.” blog.geographydirections.com/2025/01/13/r... @rgsibg.bsky.social

Some top notch viral content at the moment over on linkedin, of some definitely real firefighters in LA rescuing absolutely real animals with very real smoke pouring out of... themselves? #LAWildfires #AI #LinkedIn

Dr. David McKay gave an excellent public lecture on ' #Climate Tipping Points' at Cardiff University's School of Earth & Environmental Sciences. How close are they? & What can we do about them? 🧵 1 / 18