A lot of big questions in Canadian politics right now. Is the Liberal advantage narrowing? Can the Conservatives expand their coalition? Where is the NDP finding new support? And how much of what we’re seeing is about the parties versus the political environment itself? youtu.be/443KvyL6dMU...

Can Poilievre close the gap with Carney?

Amanda Galbraith, co-founder and president of Oyster Group, and Dav...

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About one-third of Canadians appear to be living with anticipatory insecurity. Their lives basically work today. But they don’t trust that the arrangement will hold. abacusdata.ca/the-securit...

The Security Spectrum: Six Canadas Sorted by What They Fear Losing - Abacus Data

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What if Canadian politics is being shaped less by what people have, and more by what they’re afraid of losing? Our new report identifies six distinct ‘Canadas’ based on how secure people feel about their lives. abacusdata.ca/the-securit...

The most politically anxious Canadians aren’t necessarily the poorest. We identified six distinct groups based on what Canadians fear losing, and the results challenge some common assumptions about insecurity and politics. abacusdata.ca/the-securit...

The Security Spectrum: Six Canadas Sorted by What They Fear Losing - Abacus Data

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Canada isn't simply divided between people who are secure and people who are struggling. There are different kinds of insecurity, and they shape different expectations of government, politics and change. Meet the six groups in The Security Spectrum. abacusdata.ca/the-securit...

Only 25% of the Fragile Middle believe real change happens through voting and normal political channels. 35% say a non-democratic government could sometimes be preferable. This group represents one in five Canadians. abacusdata.ca/the-securit...

Some Canadians don't have enough. Others have enough today but worry they could lose it tomorrow. Those experiences may look similar on a hardship index, but our research finds they are linked to very different political outlooks. abacusdata.ca/the-securit...

'Affordability,' 'security' and 'change' don't mean the same thing to everyone. The same message can sound like relief to one Canadian, reassurance to another, and a threat to a third. That's a key lesson from The Security Spectrum. abacusdata.ca/the-securit...

About one-third of Canadians live with anticipatory insecurity: life works today, but they don't trust that it will hold. Our new report explores what that means for politics, public opinion and behaviour. abacusdata.ca/the-securit...

Insecurity isn't a simple ladder from comfortable to struggling. Our research finds the form insecurity takes may matter more politically than its severity. The Stretched and Fragile Middle show why. abacusdata.ca/the-securit...

Using a national survey of 2,705 adults, we identified six distinct Canadas based entirely on how secure people feel across basic needs, finances, health, belonging, recognition and purpose. Meet The Security Spectrum. abacusdata.ca/the-securit...

ICYMI: Expense Scandal Has Marginal Immediate Impact on Ford PC Support in Ontario abacusdata.ca/expense-sca...

Expense Scandal Has Marginal Immediate Impact on Ford PC Support in Ontario - Abacus Data

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ICYMI: Canadians Want Economic and Political Change, but Most Are Not Looking for a Revolution Younger Canadians are far more open to alternative economic systems, political action outside normal channels. #cdnpoli abacusdata.ca/canadians-w...

Canadians Want Economic and Political Change, but Most Are Not Looking for a Revolution - Abacus Data

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So proud of what Team Abacus Data has become. Stay tuned for some big new ideas and moves that will reshape the public opinion research landscape in Canada youtu.be/r2eRSREqlyg...

We are Abacus Data

Most leaders are making decisions about what people want, and most ...

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Even after being told the U.S. cited provincial alcohol restrictions as a reason for new tariffs, only 19% want provinces to back down. Most would rather hold the line until U.S. tariffs are removed. Read the full poll: abacusdata.ca/seven-in-te...

NEW POLL: Most residents see restrictions on U.S. alcohol as negotiating leverage, not a symbolic gesture. 54% want them kept until U.S. tariffs are removed. Another 19% want them maintained permanently. abacusdata.ca/seven-in-te...

Support for keeping U.S. alcohol off provincial liquor store shelves extends across party lines. Liberal voters: 83% NDP voters: 84% Conservative voters: 53% The full poll: abacusdata.ca/seven-in-te...

Canadians are in no mood to back down. 63% say Canada should resist U.S. pressure even if it creates economic costs, while 69% want restrictions on American alcohol maintained. New Abacus Data polling: abacusdata.ca/seven-in-te...

NEW POLL: Seven in ten residents across BC, Manitoba, Ontario, and Atlantic Canada want provincial restrictions on U.S. alcohol kept in place. Only 19% want American products returned to store shelves. Read more: abacusdata.ca/seven-in-te...

In the final week, we asked who was better at "standing up to a bully": Carney 46%, Poilievre 38%. On "captaining a ship through a bad storm": Carney 40%, Poilievre 35%. In 2025, those metaphors were the ballot question. Pre-order: www.amazon.ca/Canadian-Fe...

The Canadian Federal Election of 2025

The Canadian Federal Election of 2025

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NEW POLL: 69% want provincial restrictions on U.S. alcohol kept in place. Even with the threat of further retaliation, 54% say the restrictions should remain until U.S. tariffs are removed. Just 19% want provinces to back down. More: abacusdata.ca/seven-in-te...

NEW POLL: Despite the expense controversy, Doug Ford’s PCs remain clearly in first place in Ontario. PCs 40% Liberals 32% NDP 21% Greens 3% The PC advantage has narrowed from 12 points to 8, suggesting marginal erosion rather than a major realignment. abacusdata.ca/expense-sca...

The expense scandal has not transformed the Ontario political landscape, but vote intentions have moved against the PCs. Before: PC 42%, OLP 30%, NDP 19% Now: PC 40%, OLP 32%, NDP 21% NEW POLL: abacusdata.ca/expense-sca...

NEW POLL: The Ontario PCs remain ahead, but their lead has narrowed since the expense scandal broke. PCs 40% (-2) Liberals 32% (+2) NDP 21% (+2) The PC lead is now 8 points, down from 12. abacusdata.ca/expense-sca...

The immediate impact of Ontario’s expense scandal is marginal. The PCs still lead by eight. But a majority of Ontarians see a broader culture of entitlement, and 41% say the story has made them more negative about the Ford government. NEW POLL: abacusdata.ca/expense-sca...

NEW POLL: The expense scandal has not caused Ontario PC support to collapse, but it has unsettled parts of the party’s coalition. Among past PC voters, 41% see a broader culture of entitlement and 48% want more consequences or an independent investigation. abacusdata.ca/expense-sca...

NEW POLL: The expense scandal has narrowed the Ontario PC lead, but not fundamentally changed the race. PCs 40% Liberals 32% NDP 21% The greater risk for Ford is what happens if more revelations emerge. abacusdata.ca/expense-sca...

Strategic voting was alive and well in 2025. Voters who cast a ballot for a party that wasn't their first choice were 16 points more likely to vote Liberal. In a high-stakes election, voters didn't just choose, they calculated. Pre-order: www.amazon.ca/Canadian-Fe...

The Canadian Federal Election of 2025

The Canadian Federal Election of 2025

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NEW POLL: Ontario’s expense scandal has had only a marginal immediate impact on Ford and the PCs. PC support is down 2 points to 40%, but 41% of past PC voters see a broader culture of entitlement and 48% want further action. abacusdata.ca/expense-sca...

Doug Ford’s popularity has slipped following the MPP expenses scandal, but the immediate impact on PC vote support is modest. The bigger risk for the government is how many past PC voters believe the expenses were unacceptable and want stronger action. www.thestar.com/politics/pr...

Doug Ford’s popularity dips in wake of expenses scandal, poll suggests

The Progressive Conservative expenses scandal — that has cost one cabinet minister his job — is having an impact on Premier Doug Ford's popularity, a new poll suggests.

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