"The president calls Warsh in bursts—several times in a stretch of days, then quiet for longer periods. Trump has sought Warsh’s counsel on a range of matters, including how the war in Iran and the rapid rise of artificial intelligence are affecting the economy." www.wsj.com/politics/pol...

Exclusive | Trump Has Called Warsh Repeatedly Since He Became Fed Chair

The president has sought Kevin Warsh’s counsel on issues such as how the war in Iran is affecting the economy.

wsj.com

A good job. Hamilton Project @brookings.edu is looking for a managing director. careers-brookings.icims.com/jobs/3887/ma...

Barry Eichengreen: Bottom line is that Washington, fearing the consequences for US financial markets, is reluctant to see foreign central banks use their dollar reserves. This is telling us that the dollar is not the attractive reserve currency it once was. www.ft.com/content/86db...

The real message in the yen intervention

The dollar’s status as a reserve currency is not what it used to be

ft.com

Phila Fed's Anna Paulson on why she voted to hold rates steady at the last FOMC meeting. www.philadelphiafed.org/the-economy/...

Great conversation with Jack Kleinhenz, National Retail Federation, at the NABE @nabe-econ.bsky.social Economic Measurement Seminar.

FT's Chris Giles on Warsh's press conference: "This is exactly the sort of communication that makes an unelected institution appear unaccountable and illegitimate in a democracy" shorturl.at/6MZ3f

More ripple effects from the AI boom: The cost of the biggest, most visible billboards along Highway 101 in San Francisco has surged 20%-30% from pre-pandemic levels, sfstandard.com/2026/08/03/b...

One billboard, $3M a year: Welcome to AI’s advertising arms race

The cost of the biggest, most visible signs along the U.S. 101 has surged 20%-30% from pre-pandemic levels. Nearly all are leased by AI, tech, and finance companies.

sfstandard.com

Robinhood now makes more money from prediction markets than it does from stock trades or crypto. This adds weight to my theory that Bitcoin and crypto has crashed due to competition from Polymarket and Kalshi for the online gambler demographic.

Trump “came up with a completely false quote saying I acknowledged things I never said. “My god." — Brad Karp, then the chairman of the law firm 2/2

@pkrugman.bsky.social: "Most of the benefits from rapid productivity growth in the American tech sector are passed on to end users around the world. What happens in Silicon Valley doesn’t stay in Silicon Valley." Same goes for Calif vs the rest of the US. paulkrugman.substack.com/p/geoeconomi...

Former Representative George Santos has been fined $35,000 over allegations that he engaged in insider trading by placing bets on a prediction market about whether he would attend President Trump’s State of the Union address, federal regulators announced on Friday.

George Santos Fined Over Bets on State of the Union on Kalshi Prediction Market

A federal regulator fined the former lawmaker $35,000 over allegations of insider trading by placing bets on Kalshi about whether he would attend the State of the Union address in February.

nytimes.com

What I learned today: Mexico has become the cornerstone of AI boom, providing 40% of US imports of computer servers used in data centers powering artificial intelligence.Taiwanese manufacturers are rapidly expanding factories in Mexico. www.ft.com/content/ac32...

How Mexico became a surprise cornerstone of America’s AI boom

Factories churning out servers for data centres are pushing exports to record levels

ft.com

APOLLO: “.. Imagine saying: ‘I will take you from New York to Los Angeles, but I'm not telling you how quickly, what it will cost or how you'll get there.’ By not explaining these important elements, you may question if we are actually getting to Los Angeles.” [Slok]

Maybe I should skip the papers in the morning once in a while

Another (non-voting) Fed bank president is heard from (Richmond's Barkin), but he says it was a "close call" whether to raise rates at the last FOMC meeting, doesn't know if he'd have voted to do so. www.wsj.com/economy/cent...

Exclusive | Fed’s Barkin Says It’s a ‘Close Call’ Whether Rates Are High Enough

The Richmond Fed president said he doesn’t know whether he would have joined the three colleagues who dissented in favor of a rate increase.

wsj.com

EXCLUSIVE: Bessent's 'to do' list: buy $5-10 billion worth of Japanese yen, Reuters photo shows reut.rs/4w1pLC6

EXCLUSIVE: Bessent's 'to do' list: buy $5-10 billion worth of Japanese yen, Reuters photo shows

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Friday exposed a "to-do" list during President Donald Trump's cabinet ​meeting indicating he was contemplating U.S. purchases of $5 billion to $10 billion ‌worth of Japanese yen, a Reuters photograph taken during the meeting held at Camp David shows.

reut.rs

St Louis Fed's Musalem (who doesn't have a FOMC vote this year) says he favored a rate hike. “Mr Market spoke this week, and I took signal from it. We need to continue to earn our credibility every day with both effective communications and actions as needed.” www.ft.com/content/2735...

Bond sell-off sent warning on Federal Reserve’s credibility, says top central bank official

Alberto Musalem says he supported dissenters’ calls for a quarter-point interest rate rise

ft.com

And who is the 'socialist' now? The Department of Commerce quietly announced this week it will designate more than $870 million in federal incentives for semiconductor manufacturing in exchange for a minority equity stake in seven companies. thehill.com/policy/techn...

Commerce Department quietly announces 7 new equity stakes in private companies

The Department of Commerce quietly announced this week it will designate more than $870 million in federal incentives for semiconductor manufacturing in exchange for a minority equity stake in seve…

thehill.com

Hutchins Fiscal Impact Measure shows local, state & federal fiscal policy shaved 0.2 pct pts over US GDP growth in Q2 2026. We expect fiscal policy to be moderately restrictive over the remainder of 2026. www.brookings.edu/articles/hut...

Hammack: Given the stability of the labor market, with unemployment rate near my estimate of maximum employment, I view high inflation as more pressing problem. A higher federal funds rate would help restrain economic activity and reduce inflationary pressures. www.clevelandfed.org/collections/...

Kashkari explains his dissent: 'To manage against the risk that high inflation could become entrenched, I would rather tighten policy incrementally as we gather more data on the path of inflation and employment.' www.minneapolisfed.org/article/2026...

Kashkari explains his dissent: 'To manage against the risk that high inflation could become entrenched, I would rather tighten policy incrementally as we gather more data on the path of inflation and employment.' www.minneapolisfed.org/article/2026...

Statement on My FOMC Dissent | Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis

minneapolisfed.org

Jon Faust (adviser to Bernanke, Yellen, Powell): "Warsh’s bold assertions also give off more than a whiff of false bravado." krieger.jhu.edu/financial-ec...

Oops! www.reuters.com/world/africa...

US government map of Africa mislabels every country at global conference

A U.S. government map of Africa mislabeled every country during a State Department presentation at ‌a global conference taking place in Brazil this week, causing a stir among attendees who took screen...

reuters.com

Iran war shines spotlight on the increasing tendency of countries to impose export restrictions on key commodities at times of crisis. Kari Heerman (and I) observe how costly that is for the world economy, especially poorer countries. www.brookings.edu/articles/exp... via @brookings.edu

Export restrictions don’t solve scarcity; they redistribute it | Brookings

The immediate consequence of imposing export restrictions is greater scarcity, which is especially impactful for import-dependent countries.

brookings.edu

FT's Robert Armstrong: Warsh’s description of his communications policy is nonsense. Unless Warsh (and the rest of us) get lucky, this will become a bigger problem over time. Warsh’s forward guidance omertà: I don’t believe it can last for ever. www.ft.com/content/fe3f...

Fed funds futures market (CME Fed Watch) sees >60% odds of a rate hike at the Sept FOMC meeting.