David Powell

@davidpowell.bsky.social

Does stuff at University of Pennsylvania: https://sites.google.com/view/davidpowell/

Probabilities can be unintuitive. Take this example: when I drive one kid, there’s a 70% chance that they will need to go to the bathroom within the first 10 minutes of the drive. But if i drive both of them, there’s a 180% chance we will need to stop in the first 10 minutes.

I wanted to share some notes from spending the day not at NBER: 1) I was a comfortable temperature. 2) I had decent chicken for lunch. 3) I made a casual remark about something and didn’t receive a response using the phrase “diminishing marginal utility” or “reverse causation”