Le PQ a gagné. Mais qu’a décidé le Québec? Le PQ revient avec 28 % des voix, la CAQ disparaît, mais la question de l’indépendance reste entière. Et Trump complique encore la suite. southof45.substack.com/p/the-parti-... #PolQc
southof45.substack
David J Rovinsky
@davidrovinsky.bsky.social
Political scientist & former U.S. diplomat. Comparative politics, federalism, Canada, Australia & the politics of place. ACSUS. Writing South of 45. https://southof45.substack.com/
The Parti Québécois won. But what did Quebec decide? The PQ is back with 28% of the vote, the CAQ is gone, and sovereignty remains unsettled. Trump makes the next chapter even more complicated. southof45.substack.com/p/the-parti-... #Quebec2026 #canpol #qcpol
The Parti Québécois Won. What Did Quebec Decide?
Quebec's election brought the sovereigntists back to power, destroyed the governing party, and revealed a political system more fragmented than ever.
southof45.substack.com
Elon Musk just made Paul St-Pierre Plamondon's Trump problem a hundred times worse.
Le PQ a gagné le pouvoir. Il n'a pas gagné le référendum. 28 % des voix. 59 sièges. Gouvernement minoritaire. L'appui à la souveraineté autour de 30 %. Et QS précise déjà que son soutien ne sera pas inconditionnel. Le 5 octobre ouvre la troisième tentative souverainiste. Il ne la règle pas.
Radio-Canada prévoit un gouvernement minoritaire du Parti québécois. Le PQ revient au pouvoir, mais sans majorité et avec environ 29 % du vote populaire. Le résultat constitue une victoire nette pour le PQ, mais pas un mandat référendaire. Et la CAQ? En dehors.
Quebec’s party system, election night 2026: 🔴 PLQ: Red survives and reconsolidates. 🔵 PQ: Reclaims the dominant position on the Blue side. 🔷 PCQ: Establishes a second Blue pole. 🟠 QS: Survives as a distinct left-nationalist force. 🩵 CAQ: En dehors. The CAQ system is over.
Le Parti Québécois dépasse maintenant le seuil de 64 sièges sur le décompte en direct, mais Radio-Canada souligne que plusieurs circonscriptions restent extrêmement serrées, parfois par moins de dix voix. Donc : un gouvernement péquiste est certain. Une majorité péquiste ne l’est pas encore.
CBC projects a Parti Québécois government in Quebec. Majority or minority is still unclear, but one thing is already clear: the PQ is returning to power, while the CAQ has suffered a dramatic collapse. The size and shape of the mandate still matter.
An NFL reporter went to Melbourne to cover the 49ers. Within weeks he was analyzing AFL finals, recruiting another American into footy, and reacting to rugby league. The NFL went to Australia to find converts. Australia converted one of the Americans. southof45.substack.com/p/you-can-bo...
You Can Borrow the MCG. You Can't Have September
In Australia, Footy Isn't About Footy
southof45.substack.com
Brazil’s first round delivered a striking result: Flávio Bolsonaro 47.1%, Lula 45.1%, headed to an Oct. 25 runoff. Meanwhile, Tarcísio won São Paulo 63–36, his allies swept both SP Senate seats, and Bolsonaro’s PL won 28 of 81 senators. A good night for Brazil’s right. #Brazil #Eleições2026
The NFL filled the MCG. Fremantle came within four minutes of its first flag. Newcastle lost an NRL Grand Final by a point. Different footy, same pronouns: we, us, our. My new South of 45: You Can Borrow the MCG. You Can't Have September. #AFL #NRL #NFL southof45.substack.com/p/you-can-bo...
You Can Borrow the MCG. You Can't Have September
In Australia, Footy Isn't About Footy
southof45.substack.com
Trump is scrambling Canada’s party system, but that doesn’t yet mean realignment. The new South of 45 essay looks at Carney, Poilievre, the NDP, federalism, and the regional pressures reshaping Canadian politics. #canada #canpol southof45.substack.com/p/trump-is-s...
Trump Is Scrambling Canada’s Party System
Trump is plainly changing the issues around which Canadian politics operates. Existing party electorates are being placed under new pressures and voters are moving across partisan boundaries.
southof45.substack.com
Quebec is the harder test because it separates three possible motives for American right-wing interest in separatism: principle, ideological affinity, and strategic utility. Alberta doesn’t separate them nearly as cleanly. southof45.substack.com/p/my-adversa...
My Adversary Is Donald Trump
What does the American right make of a separatist movement that looks almost nothing like Alberta separatism?
southof45.substack.com
The old formula was not neutral: Washington preferred Canadian unity, but Canada’s constitutional future was ultimately for Canadians to decide. Trump raises a different question: does Washington still regard Canadian stability itself as an American interest? southof45.substack.com/p/my-adversa...
My Adversary Is Donald Trump
What does the American right make of a separatist movement that looks almost nothing like Alberta separatism?
southof45.substack.com
Alberta separatism is easy for the American right to understand. Quebec separatism is not. So if the PQ wins, what does the American right make of a separatist movement that looks almost nothing like Alberta’s? #Canada #canpol #quebec #CanadaUS southof45.substack.com/p/my-adversa...
My Adversary Is Donald Trump
What does the American right make of a separatist movement that looks almost nothing like Alberta separatism?
southof45.substack.com
A new white paper from Université Laval asks how Canada should adapt its external economic policy to a less predictable U.S. I was pleased to contribute to the conference behind it with my paper on Canada-U.S. integration and the “illusion of stability.” www.esei.ulaval.ca/sites/esei.u...
esei.ulaval.ca
Delighted to see this out in the new issue of JACANZS. I compare Western Australia and Alberta as resource-rich regions where secessionist politics increasingly turns on federalism, redistribution, and the terms of the federal bargain rather than nationalism alone.
JACANZS@jacanzs.bsky.social · last mo.An interesting article by David J. Rovinsky on ‘Beyond Nationalism? Resource Federalism and Regional Secessionism in Western Australia and Alberta’ in Vol. 6 of JACANZS. #Alberta #Federalism #ResourcePolitics #Secession #WesternAustralia doi.org/10.52230/DXR...
An interesting article by David J. Rovinsky on ‘Beyond Nationalism? Resource Federalism and Regional Secessionism in Western Australia and Alberta’ in Vol. 6 of JACANZS. #Alberta #Federalism #ResourcePolitics #Secession #WesternAustralia doi.org/10.52230/DXR...
‘Beyond Nationalism? Resource Federalism and Regional Secessionism in Western Australia and Alberta’
David J. Rovinsky david@rovinsky.net Journal of Australian, Canadian, and Aotearoa New Zealand Studies 6 (September 2026): 37-76, Abstract: This article compares secessionist politics in Western Au…
doi.org
WA’s GST revolt was built around “30 cents back in the dollar.” Technically misleading, politically devastating. Once WA’s relativity hit 0.30, equalization could be sold as punishment for success. southof45.substack.com/p/the-austra... #auspol #ausecon
The Australian GST: One Tax, Two Bargains
Twenty-six years after Australians began paying the GST, the tax itself hasn't moved. But everything around it keeps changing.
southof45.substack.com
Australia’s GST has barely changed in 26 years. The federal bargain around it has. My new South of 45 essay looks at the stalled tax switch, WA’s equalization revolt, and why the 2018 fix now looks politically permanent. southof45.substack.com/p/the-austra... #auspol #ausecon
The Australian GST: One Tax, Two Bargains
Twenty-six years after Australians began paying the GST, the tax itself hasn't moved. But everything around it keeps changing.
southof45.substack.com
Vermont spent decades protecting itself from the costs of growth. What happens when scarcity becomes the bigger threat? southof45.substack.com/p/the-vermon... #Vermont #Housing #Abundance #PoliticalEconomy
The Vermont Settlement
The political system that became very good at protecting Vermont from the costs of rapid development has proven much less adept at confronting the costs of too little development.
southof45.substack.com
Brazil’s 2026 presidential election is now set: Lula versus Flávio Bolsonaro. But the deeper story is succession. southof45.substack.com/p/the-brazil... #Brazil #BrazilElection2026 #Lula #Bolsonaro #LatinAmerica #BrazilianPolitics
The Brazilian Election: Battle of the Irreplaceables
The unresolved succession has become entangled with another question: whether the institutional and international conflicts of the Lula-Bolsonaro era will survive them as well.
southof45.substack.com
One Nation is polling around 30%. Who are these voters? Donald Warren’s 1976 “Middle American Radicals” may offer a research question: is the alienated middle more than American? southof45.substack.com/p/the-middle... #auspol #OneNation #PaulineHanson #AustralianPolitics
The Middle American Radicals "Down Under": Donald Warren, One Nation and Australia's Politics of Alienation
What sort of constituency has become available to Australia's One Nation, and can the party organize that constituency well enough to convert a polling surge into lasting power?
southof45.substack.com
One Nation is polling around 30%. Who are these voters? Donald Warren’s 1976 “Middle American Radicals” may offer a research question: is the alienated middle more than American? southof45.substack.com/p/the-middle... #auspol #OneNation #PaulineHanson #AustralianPolitics
The Middle American Radicals "Down Under": Donald Warren, One Nation and Australia's Politics of Alienation
What sort of constituency has become available to Australia's One Nation, and can the party organize that constituency well enough to convert a polling surge into lasting power?
southof45.substack.com
How does the Parti Québécois' "Livre bleu" stand up when read through the lens of comparative politics? southof45.substack.com/p/beyond-the... #Quebec #Canada #CanadianPolitics #Federalism #PoliticalScience #Constitution #SouthOf45
Beyond the Blueprint: Reading the Parti Québécois' Livre bleu
The document represents an effort to present sovereignty as an exercise in competent governance rather than romantic nationalism.
southof45.substack.com
Why does the CFL constantly compare itself to the NFL, while the AFL rarely thinks about American football at all? The answer isn't the rules—it's institutional ecology. Football as comparative politics. #CFL #AFL #Canada #Australia southof45.substack.com/p/more-than-...
More Than a Game: Canadian and Australian Football as National Institutions
They are two of the world's most successful examples of national sporting institutions developing alongside far larger international competitions.
southof45.substack.com
Is Vermont spending too much time managing scarcity instead of reducing it? Housing, labor, childcare, healthcare, and demographics all point to the same underlying challenge: capacity. southof45.substack.com/p/managing-s... #Vermont #Housing #Economics #PoliticalEconomy
Managing Scarcity or Reducing It?
Political debates begin with the question, "Who should get these expensive things?" Vermont needs to begin one step earlier and ask, "Why is there so little of them?"
southof45.substack.com
Québec's new international policy isn't most interesting for what it says about Québec. It's most interesting for what it says about the world. Beyond Gérin-Lajoie, the province is adapting to an age of geopolitics. southof45.substack.com/p/beyond-ger... #Quebec #Canada #Geopolitics #ForeignPolicy
Beyond Gérin-Lajoie: Québec in an Age of Geopolitics
Québec's new policy asks a new question: how should it protect its interests when the international system itself has become less stable, less predictable, and increasingly geopolitical?
southof45.substack.com
What do Vermont and Tasmania have in common? More than you think. Both are aging, beautiful places struggling with housing shortages, workforce gaps, and the consequences of becoming too attractive. southof45.substack.com/p/dont-jerse... #Vermont #Tasmania #PublicPolicy #Australia
Don't Jersey Vermont. Don't Melbourne Tasmania.
At first glance, Vermont and Tasmania seem unlikely candidates for comparison. Yet they are strikingly similar in ways that matter politically and economically.
southof45.substack.com
Québec's latest language report raises a question that extends beyond francization: How do governments know whether their programs are actually working? open.substack.com/pub/southof4... #Quebec #Canada #CanadianPolitics #PublicPolicy #StateCapacity #LanguagePolicy #Governance
When Government Can't Measure Success: The Limits of Francization
Québec is no longer merely concerned with whether newcomers can learn French. It is increasingly concerned with whether they choose to live their private lives in French.
open.substack.com