Forecasting lectures summarised in cartoons. 1. Introduction to forecasting

A non-Australian detected!

Andrew Heiss@andrew.heiss.phd · 3mo ago

Moving shelves out of the basement and uncovered a huge black chunky spider that ran away before I could stop it or identify it. *Reeeeealy* hoping it’s a false widow 🤞🤞

Getting tenure has its perks. For example, once tenured you get enough free time to cook your own pizza!

Todd Jones@toddrjones.bsky.social · 3mo ago

The first pizza I cooked on my pizza oven, a present for getting tenure! I made the dough and sauce, and the basil was fresh from the garden.

As the new Science paper is making waves, let me repost this working paper on the very same issue that we had made available back in January. For what it's worth, technically, *we* were the first to document the effect that USAID suspension had on conflict in Africa.

David Ubilava@davidubilava.bsky.social · 7mo ago

It has been one year since the January 2025 suspension of USAID. In our new paper (with Annabelle Tan and @ashani.bsky.social), we treat this suspension as a natural experiment and examine how foreign aid withdrawal affects conflict dynamics. A thread: [1/7] papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....

The 2025 Best Visualization Award has been awarded to Justin Hastings & @davidubilava.bsky.social (@sydney.edu.au) for their article entitled 'Agricultural roots of social conflict in Southeast Asia'. Congratulations to the authors! 👏 📢 Read the full announcement: www.prio.org/journals/jpr...

The answer, to that question, is "probably no." Share of fertilizer in any food item is tiny, especially in high income countries. Farmers will bear the cost, no doubt. But much is going to depend on for how long this conflict lingers and, especially, if markets remain disrupted.

The Conversation AUNZ@aunz.theconversation.com · 5mo ago

If there’s a major shock for the fertiliser we use to grow wheat, do consumers soon see rising prices of bread, flour and beer?

If there’s a major shock for the fertiliser we use to grow wheat, do consumers soon see rising prices of bread, flour and beer?

Fertiliser costs are soaring amid war in the Middle East. Will your grocery bill follow?

theconversation.com

It's not just oil affected, it's critical commodities such as fertiliser disrupted by the Middle East conflict. Farmers are impacted, but what about the consumer at the checkout with rising prices of bread, flour & beer? 🌾 Read more from A/Prof @davidubilava.bsky.social @economicsusyd.bsky.social

The Conversation AUNZ@aunz.theconversation.com · 5mo ago

If there’s a major shock for the fertiliser we use to grow wheat, do consumers soon see rising prices of bread, flour and beer?

We are live. A packed two-day programme, a great set of speakers, and a wide range of topics. Our 3rd #SCoPE workshop at @sydney.edu.au has a lot to look forward to. Register and stop by if you are in town. sydneyscope.org

Nice coverage--and replication--of our working paper "Aid, Interrupted" by @leecrawfurd.bsky.social in a revlcent @cgdev.org blog post. Here is the link to the current version of the paper: papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....

Lee Crawfurd@leecrawfurd.bsky.social · 6mo ago

New Blog for CGD: US Aid Cuts Fueled Conflict in Africa www.cgdev.org/blog/us-aid-...

It has been one year since the January 2025 suspension of USAID. In our new paper (with Annabelle Tan and @ashani.bsky.social), we treat this suspension as a natural experiment and examine how foreign aid withdrawal affects conflict dynamics. A thread: [1/7] papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....

ICYMI #econsky #polisky

David Ubilava@davidubilava.bsky.social · 8mo ago

Call for papers: The Social Conflict and Political Economy (SCoPE) workshop will be held at the University of Sydney on 31 March–1 April 2026. Please send papers (or extended abstracts) to the workshop email. Link to the call and previous programmes: sydneyscope.org

Call for papers: The Social Conflict and Political Economy (SCoPE) workshop will be held at the University of Sydney on 31 March–1 April 2026. Please send papers (or extended abstracts) to the workshop email. Link to the call and previous programmes: sydneyscope.org

Our paper on harvest-time changes in conflict, violence, and social unrest has been assigned to a volume and issue (makes it easier to cite). It offers some valuable insights, in my opinion. Luckily, it is also open access, so feel free to check it out: doi.org/10.1177/0022...

Agricultural roots of social conflict in Southeast Asia - Justin V Hastings, David Ubilava, 2025

We examine whether harvest-time transitory shifts in employment and income lead to changes in political violence and social unrest in rice-producing croplands o...

doi.org

Do commodity price spikes cause social unrest? They do. But when we focus on local prices of a locally produced cereal—maize—we find the relationship is negative, on average. This is a baseline result of our new working paper with Aaron Humphreys. [1/9] davidubilava.com/Papers/prote...

Hi everyone! We're finally on bluesky! We heard this is now where all the cool people hang out, and even though we are just an economics department, we still would like to be cool.

1/ 🚀Big Update❗❗ Last year we published @NatCities, a systematic analysis of how countries are organized around multiple urban centres. That geospatial dataset is very complex. So we just launched the City-Region Explorer🔎... an easy to use platform for analysis. 🧵 #EconSky #Geography #GISChat

We have a superb lineup of 18 speakers representing 10 universities from across four countries. Really excited about this one!

Ashani Amarasinghe@ashani.bsky.social · last yr.

The day is here! Looking forward to the 2nd edition of SCoPE at the University of Sydney today 🤩 @davidubilava.bsky.social Program sydneyscope.org

Today at sydneyscope.org (organised by @davidubilava.bsky.social and @ashani.bsky.social). With @jacobedenhofer.bsky.social

Does conflict intensify during harvest in crop-producing regions?

1/ Does conflict intensify at harvest time in agricultural regions? Our new study explores this question in the context of Southeast Asia. Read the paper for the full story, or read this thread for tl;dr.

David Ubilava@davidubilava.bsky.social · last yr.

Great to see this one out in the wilderness. I will do a thread in due course. Until then, enjoy the free access to the full text. journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...

Great to see this one out in the wilderness. I will do a thread in due course. Until then, enjoy the free access to the full text. journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...

Agricultural roots of social conflict in Southeast Asia - Justin V Hastings, David Ubilava, 2025

We examine whether harvest-time transitory shifts in employment and income lead to changes in political violence and social unrest in rice-producing croplands o...

journals.sagepub.com

"Dear passengers, we apologise for a slight delay. We will soon take off, once we sort out a minor technical issue."

Dina Pomeranz@dinapomeranz.bsky.social · last yr.

How you know your public transit system works well: pilots take it on their way to the airport. #Zürich #ZVV

If you're the kind of person who waits until the last minute, the wait is over. Submit your paper or extended abstract for the 2nd SCoPE workshop to be held in Sydney on 3-4 June by the end of the day.

Ashani Amarasinghe@ashani.bsky.social · 2y ago

Don’t forget to submit your papers to the 2nd Social Conflict and Political Economy (SCoPE) workshop at the University of Sydney School of Economics! Deadline: 31 January More info: sydneyscope.org Join our mailing list: docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1F... @davidubilava.bsky.social

Don’t forget to submit your papers to the 2nd Social Conflict and Political Economy (SCoPE) workshop at the University of Sydney School of Economics! Deadline: 31 January More info: sydneyscope.org Join our mailing list: docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1F... @davidubilava.bsky.social

David Ubilava@davidubilava.bsky.social · 2y ago

📢Workshop Announcement The 2nd Social Conflict and Political Economy (SCoPE) Workshop will take place at the University of Sydney on June 3-4, 2025. Please submit your papers by email to scope.conference@sydney.edu.au by 31 January 2025. dubilava.github.io/Calls/SCoPE_...

What has development economics become? Marc Bellemare presents his view in his recent blog post (one of many in 2025, by the sounds of it—in and of itself, great news for applied economists). marcfbellemare.com/wordpress/14...

W(h)ither Development Economics?

(Over the last one or two years, I have explained to a number of colleagues and graduate students that I was not interested in doing development anymore. I am writing this post to avoid having the …

marcfbellemare.com

Introducing my wonderful workplace where I've been for almost (gasp!) 30 years! Follow us for research on #foodpolicy, particularly in low- and middle-income countries.

International Food Policy Research Institute@ifpri.org · 2y ago

🦋IFPRI is excited to join @bsky.app! Colleagues, partners, friends @cgiar.org and beyond - who's there? 👋 Welcome to our cloud!

#Climate, crops, and postharvest conflict #Klima, Ernten und Konflikte nach der Ernte

David Ubilava@davidubilava.bsky.social · 2y ago

The climate–conflict nexus is an active area of research. I examine how El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) shocks affect political violence in Africa. Headline result: Exposure to a positive ENSO shock (an El Niño event) reduces postharvest conflict. [1/13] doi.org/10.1111/ajae...

Wie El Niño Konflikte um Ernten in Afrika beeinflusst. ⬇️ #climate #conflict

David Ubilava@davidubilava.bsky.social · 2y ago

The climate–conflict nexus is an active area of research. I examine how El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) shocks affect political violence in Africa. Headline result: Exposure to a positive ENSO shock (an El Niño event) reduces postharvest conflict. [1/13] doi.org/10.1111/ajae...