An update on the midterms, after Trump's speech: adamprzeworski.substack.com/p/an-update-on-the-midterms
An Update on the Midterms
After Trump's Speech
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I am re-posting what I thought about the prospects for the midterm six months ago because nothing has changed since then. See adamprzeworski.substack.com/p/midterms-887
Midterms
July 14, 2026
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Can Republicans win the midterms with 40 percent support? See adamprzeworski.substack.com/p/midterms
Midterms
The question we face in the US today is whether a party in office which is supported by 40 percent of survey respondents can win an election.
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A very good article on worlwide surveys on democracy is Dahlberg, Stefan & Ulf Mörkenstam (2024) "Exploring Popular Conceptions of Democracy Through Media Discourse." Democratization. 31:8. DOI: doi.org/10.1080/1351...
Exploring popular conceptions of democracy through media discourse: analysing dimensions of democracy from online media data in 93 countries using a distributional semantic model
Survey studies show that popular support for democracy is strong in democratic and non-democratic countries. Naturally, the question is if democracy actually means the same thing in different lingu...
doi.org
I looked at worldwide surveys on democracy: adamprzeworski.substack.com/p/worldwide-surveys-about-democracy
Worldwide surveys about democracy
I studied worldwide surveys about approval of different political regimes and could not figure out what they are intended to reveal or what they do reveal.
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I wonder about G Elliot Morris's findings. Are the concern about economic well-being and ideology mutually exclusive? In France a few years ago 71% of respondents agreed that "the notions of the Left and the Right are obsolete," but 94% were still able to locate themselves on this dimension.
Musings 3: on municipal socialism, on worldwide surveys on democracy. adamprzeworski.substack.com/p/musings-3
Musings 3
Municipal Socialism
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No longer on a weekly basis, but I could not resist .... open.substack.com/pub/adamprze...
Musings 1
To readers of my weekly comments
open.substack.com
Beliefs in conspiracies cannot be shaken by anything. Denials are interpreted as confirmations. "Full disclosure" only raises suspicions that something is being hidden. This is inherent in the logic of conspiracies.
Here is WEEK 22: adamprzeworski.substack.com/p/week-22 It will be the last one at least for the foreseeable future.
WEEK 22
There is an old song, by Doris Day:
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What a disclosure that it is by my co-author, I find this paper to be both intellectually profound and technically path-breaking. Not easy, but truly worth reading.
Zhaotian Luo@luozhaotian.bsky.social · last yr.New Working Paper: Why does power alternate even without formal institutions? We develop a dynamic model where power alternation emerges spontaneously before it is formalized, as part of an efficient self-enforcing agreement governed by evolving norms. Link here: papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
I am still at it, even if running out of steam: adamprzeworski.substack.com/p/week-18
WEEK 18
WEEK 18
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Capitalism & democracy The capitalism-democracy relationship has been studied from what I call a power structure perspective (top row) & a political economy one (bottom row)👇 A key issue this literature grapples with are the precise conditions under which capitalism & democracy are compatible
If you want to understand Poland, read Andrzej Szczypiorski, The Beautiful Mrs. Seidenman.
Esta observación se debe a Paola Bergallo, no a mí.
Sergio Jiménez@craselrau.bsky.social · last yr.más allá de explicaciones culturales sobre al ultraderechización de los varones jóvenes, me ha gustado el análisis de @adamprz.bsky.social acerca de que mientras las mujeres de ahora (de momento) aspiran a mejores condiciones de vida que sus madres, los varones han perdido, como poco estatus
No longer daily but I am still at it: adamprzeworski.substack.com/p/week-14
I cleaned the cumulative version of the Diary, mainly because one week was repeated but also because there were some spelling mistakes. Otherwise, it is untouched. For the record: adamprzeworski.substack.com/p/diary
Prato and Grillo? onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1...
American Journal of Political Science | MPSA Journal | Wiley Online Library
We propose a theory of democratic backsliding where citizens' retrospective assessment of an incumbent politician depends on expectations that are endogenous to the incumbent's behaviour. We show tha...
onlinelibrary.wiley.com
Last update on a daily basis: adamprzeworski.substack.com/p/week-13, also in the cumulative text: adamprzeworski.substack.com/p/diary.
WEEK 13
Wednesday, May 7
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I vaguely remember a paper in which the government makes a large unpopular step, then backs part way, and increases its support. Does anyone know of such a paper?
Now it is WEEK 12: adamprzeworski.substack.com/p/week-12. As always, also appended to the running Diary: adamprzeworski.substack.com/p/diary
WEEK 12
Wednesday, April 30
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Here is WEEK 11: adamprzeworski.substack.com/p/week-11 Also appended to the entire Diary: adamprzeworski.substack.com/p/diary
WEEK 11
Wednesday, April 23
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