UPDATE | Fighting between the Ethiopian military (ENDF) and TPLF in northern Ethiopia’s Tigray region has thus far remained limited, with no further clashes reported since August 1.
Critical Threats Project
@criticalthreats.bsky.social
An AEI project focused on understanding threats and tracking global challenges | Contact us: criticalthreats@aei.org | Media requests: mediaservices@aei.org
MORE | US officials and Iranian negotiators continue to present competing interpretations of the emerging arrangement on the Strait of Hormuz.
Critical Threats Project@criticalthreats.bsky.social · 21h agoNEW | US officials and Iranian negotiators continue to present competing interpretations of the emerging arrangement on the Strait of Hormuz. Read today's update from CTP and @thestudyofwar.bsky.social: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira... (1/11)
NEW | US officials and Iranian negotiators continue to present competing interpretations of the emerging arrangement on the Strait of Hormuz. Read today's update from CTP and @thestudyofwar.bsky.social: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira... (1/11)
NEW: The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Russia launched an unspecified number of North Korean ballistic missiles between July 29 and 30. Russia is likely using these missiles to exploit Ukraine’s lack of anti-ballistic missile interceptors. (1/6) Read the full update: isw.pub/KoreanUpdate...
MORE | Mojtaba may have made this warning to prevent Pezeshkian from using the threat of his resignation to influence regime policies.
Critical Threats Project@criticalthreats.bsky.social · 2d agoNEW | Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei may be trying to reduce President Masoud Pezeshkian and other “pragmatist” officials’ ability to influence the regime’s approach toward the United States in the current conflict. www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...
Russian forces are replicating aspects of their 2025 battlefield air interdiction (BAI) campaign that set conditions for late 2025 advances near Pokrovsk and Hulyaipole to prepare for offensive operations against the Fortress Belt in Donetsk Oblast. www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/rus...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 3, 2026
criticalthreats.org
NEW | Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei may be trying to reduce President Masoud Pezeshkian and other “pragmatist” officials’ ability to influence the regime’s approach toward the United States in the current conflict. www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...
Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) President Félix Tshisekedi committed to hold a Congolese national dialogue. 🧵⬇️
NEW | Iranian negotiators such as Foreign Affairs Minister Abbas Araghchi may be willing to make limited compromises with the United States over the extent of Iranian control over the Strait of Hormuz. Read more from CTP and @thestudyofwar.bsky.social: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira... (1/9)
NEW I Iran is threatening to target energy infrastructure in the Middle East, likely to try to deter the United States and Israel from following through on reported plans to strike Iranian energy infrastructure. Read the full update here: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...
Iran Update Evening Special Report, August 1, 2026
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NEW | The United States has not conducted any strikes on Iran since CTP-ISW's last data cutoff. Iran has conducted only one attack against US assets in the region since CTP-ISW's July 30 data cutoff. www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...
Iran Update Special Report, July 31, 2026
criticalthreats.org
ICYMI | As a part of a briefing held by The Commission on Security and Cooperation in Europe (@helsiknkicom), CTP Africa Team Lead @Liam Karr provided insights into Russia’s growing influence in Africa utilizing the Wagner Group and Africa corps, and what the United States can do about it.
NEW: The Economist reported on July 23 that PLA soldiers have undergone combat training at a Russian military complex. The PLA is likely aiming to improve its ability to conduct unmanned systems warfare and operate in a drone-saturated environment. (1/5) Full update: isw.pub/ChinaTaiwanU...
NEW | The SAF took control of a supply line vital to any SAF offensive to consolidate control of central Sudan and advance toward areas of western Sudan controlled by the RSF. 🧵⬇️
MORE | Iran’s actions to disrupt global shipping and energy markets are part of a concerted effort to increase the economic cost of US military operations in Iran. Read more: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...
Critical Threats Project@criticalthreats.bsky.social · 6d agoIran almost certainly recognizes that the northern Red Sea and Suez Canal corridor provides a viable alternative route for international shipping and energy markets to circumvent Iran’s disruptions to shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.
NEW | Russian forces conducted a large-scale strike series against Ukraine on the night of July 29 to 30 that featured a particularly large number of missiles and aimed to exploit Ukraine's shortage of ballistic missile interceptors. www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/rus...
NEW | Iran possibly conducted or directed the drone attack on a US gas tanker at Damietta Port in northeastern Egypt on July 29. www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...
MORE | The Iranian regime likely launched a “surprise attack” on US forces in Jordan on July 28 to erode the United States’ willingness to undermine the regime’s efforts to achieve its war aims, including securing Iranian control over the Strait of Hormuz.
Critical Threats Project@criticalthreats.bsky.social · 7d agoNEW | The Iranian regime likely launched a “surprise attack” on US forces in Jordan on July 28 to erode the United States’ willingness to undermine the regime’s efforts to achieve its war aims, including securing Iranian control over the Strait of Hormuz.
NEW | Russia's superior aviation capabilities are allowing Russia to use glide bomb strikes to enable infantry advances in and near Kostyantynivka.
NEW | The Iranian regime likely launched a “surprise attack” on US forces in Jordan on July 28 to erode the United States’ willingness to undermine the regime’s efforts to achieve its war aims, including securing Iranian control over the Strait of Hormuz.
MORE | The IRGC-Vahidi group appears willing to negotiate with the United States but is totally unwilling to end the war on terms that preclude complete control of the strait.
Critical Threats Project@criticalthreats.bsky.social · last wk.There are three competing groups within the regime that are attempting to influence negotiations policy. The group currently arguing for negotiations and total control over the strait is likely guiding policy at this time.
There are three competing groups within the regime that are attempting to influence negotiations policy. The group currently arguing for negotiations and total control over the strait is likely guiding policy at this time.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky met with US President Donald Trump in Washington, DC, on July 28 to discuss strengthening Ukrainian air defenses and diplomatic efforts to end Russia’s war against Ukraine.
MORE | Saudi Arabia stated on July 27 that it shot down drones launched from Iraq aimed at petroleum facilities in its Eastern Province and in Riyadh. Read More: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...
Iran Update Special Report, July 27, 2026
criticalthreats.org
Critical Threats Project@criticalthreats.bsky.social · last wk.Saudi Arabia and Jordan reported hostile drone attacks on July 27. Iranian-backed Iraqi militias probably conducted the attack on Jordan and at least some attacks on Saudi Arabia.
NEW | Russian President Vladimir Putin is trying to militarize Russian society and to shift the responsibility for the war in Ukraine onto Russian State Duma deputies and the Russian population. www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/rus...
NEW | Recent attacks on regional states by Iran’s proxies and partners enable Iran to maintain plausible deniability while continuing to advance its objective of coercing the United States to end the war in terms favorable to Iran, which include accepting Iranian control over the Strait of Hormuz.
Pro-Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) and Puntland state forces clashed amid a standoff between the two sides in northern Somalia’s Puntland state, a dispute that is part of a broader political crisis between the FGS and the leading national opposition coalition. ⬇️🧵
Critical Threats Project@criticalthreats.bsky.social · 2w agoRead the full assessment in this week’s Africa File, which also covers a Federal Government of Somalia and Puntland clash: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/red...
NEW I The current level and type of US strikes have likely failed to meaningfully affect the Iranian regime’s willingness to pursue and secure its strategic objectives with force, including long-term control over the Strait of Hormuz. (1/8) Read more here: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...
NEW | Russian President Vladimir Putin likely used a meeting with Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev to justify his refusal to freeze the frontline in Ukraine and his decision to continue waging the war as he has been.
NEW | The Saudi-led coalition struck several Houthi targets across Yemen in order to degrade the Houthis' capabilities to threaten Saudi-linked shipping in the Red Sea and strike Saudi critical infrastructure. Read more: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...
