Institute for the Study of War
@thestudyofwar.bsky.social
ISW is a policy research organization focused on U.S. national security. Email: press@understandingwar.org. For more: https://linktr.ee/understandingwar
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, Aug 4, 2026: UA's SBU conducted 100+ successful strikes on RU in its initial 40-day strike op on a wide target set, likely intending to generate separate & sometimes mutually reinforcing effects to up the cost to Putin. (1/2) Read more: isw.pub/UkrWar080426
Iran Update Special Report, 08.04.26: US officials & Iranian negotiators present competing interpretations of the emerging arrangement on the strait. The Iranians’ inconsistent messaging is likely due to the competing Iranian regime factions’ approaches. (1/6) Read more: isw.pub/IranUpdate08...
NEW: The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Russia launched an unspecified number of North Korean ballistic missiles between July 29 and 30. Russia is likely using these missiles to exploit Ukraine’s lack of anti-ballistic missile interceptors. (1/6) Read the full update: isw.pub/KoreanUpdate...
NEW: Russian forces are replicating aspects of their Summer-Fall 2025 battlefield air interdiction campaign that set conditions for late 2025 advances near Pokrovsk and Hulyaipole to prepare for offensive operations against the Fortress Belt. (1/5) Read the update: isw.pub/UkrWar080326
Iran Update Special Report 08.03.26: Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei may be trying to reduce Pezeshkian and other “pragmatist” officials’ ability to influence the regime’s approach toward the United States in the current conflict. (1/5) Read the full report: isw.pub/IranUpdate08...
NEW: An IED detonated in central Moscow City on August 1, potentially targeting Russian Aerospace Forces (VKS) Commander Colonel General Alexander Chayko. It is unclear as of this writing if the explosion killed or injured Chayko. (1/5) Read the full update: isw.pub/UkrWar080226
NEW: Iranian negotiators such as Foreign Affairs Minister Abbas Araghchi may be willing to make limited compromises with the United States over the extent of Iranian control over the Strait of Hormuz. Read the full update: isw.pub/IranUpdate08...
NEW: The Russian rate of advance in Ukraine remains low two and a half months into the Russian Spring-Summer 2026 offensive, which has failed to make any operationally significant gains. (1/8)
NEW: Iran is threatening to target energy infrastructure in the Middle East, likely to try to deter the United States and Israel from following through on reported plans to strike Iranian energy infrastructure. (1/7) Read the full update: isw.pub/IranUpdate08...
NEW: The Russian Northern Grouping of Forces and high military command are likely lying to the Kremlin about the extent of Russian gains in northern Ukraine to further the narrative that Russian forces are actively advancing across the entire theater. 🧵(1/8) Read more: isw.pub/UkrWar073126
NEW: The United States has not conducted any strikes on Iran since ISW-CTP’s last data cutoff. Iran has conducted only one attack against US assets in the region since ISW-CTP’s July 30 data cutoff. (1/5) Read more: isw.pub/IranUpdate07...
NEW: The Economist reported on July 23 that PLA soldiers have undergone combat training at a Russian military complex. The PLA is likely aiming to improve its ability to conduct unmanned systems warfare and operate in a drone-saturated environment. (1/5) Full update: isw.pub/ChinaTaiwanU...
ISW on Capitol Hill: ISW’s Russia Team Lead @katstepanenko.bsky.social briefs @helsinkicomm.bsky.social on Russia’s Wagner Group and Africa Corps’ recruitment of Africans to fight in Ukraine. Watch here: https://www.csce.gov/briefings/russias-exploitation-and-engagement-in-africa/
Russia’s Exploitation and Engagement in Africa - CSCE
Across the African continent, Russia provides security support to repressive regimes, facilitates predatory resource extraction, and conducts extensive information and influence operations. Though Rus...
csce.gov
NEW: Russian forces conducted a large-scale strike series against Ukraine on the night of July 29 to 30 that featured a particularly large number of missiles and aimed to exploit Ukraine’s shortage of ballistic missile interceptors. (1/12) Read the full report: isw.pub/UkrWar073026
NEW: The US conducted a wave of strikes in Iran on July 29 in response to Iranian attacks on US forces on July 28. Most recorded US airstrikes targeted Iranian military sites in southern Iran, including targets along the Persian Gulf coastline. (1/10) Read the full report: isw.pub/IranUpdate07...
NEW: Russian officials and media have weaponized the experience of a 10-year-old girl from occupied Ukraine to propagate narratives about Russia’s alleged humanitarianism, highlighting how Russia uses children as a tool of occupation. (1/6) Read the full update: isw.pub/OccupationUp...
MORE | The Iranian regime likely launched a “surprise attack” on US forces in Jordan on July 28 to erode the United States’ willingness to undermine the regime’s efforts to achieve its war aims, including securing Iranian control over the Strait of Hormuz.
Critical Threats Project@criticalthreats.bsky.social · 7d agoNEW | The Iranian regime likely launched a “surprise attack” on US forces in Jordan on July 28 to erode the United States’ willingness to undermine the regime’s efforts to achieve its war aims, including securing Iranian control over the Strait of Hormuz.
NEW: Russia’s superior aviation capabilities are allowing Russia to use glide bomb strikes to enable infantry advances in and near Kostyantynivka. (1/7) Read the full update: isw.pub/UkrWar072926
NEW: The Iranian regime likely launched a “surprise attack” on US forces in Jordan on July 28 to erode the United States’ willingness to undermine the regime’s efforts to achieve its war aims, including securing Iranian control over the Strait of Hormuz. (1/10)
NEW: Hezbollah’s ability to develop and refine its use of tactical first-person view (FPV) systems represents a significant development that could alter the character of future conflicts between Israel and Hezbollah. (1/2) Read the special report: isw.pub/HezbollahFPV...
Iran Update Special Report, July 28, 2026: Three competing groups within the regime are attempting to influence negotiations policy. The group currently arguing for negotiations and total control over the strait is likely guiding policy at this time. (1/7) Read the report: isw.pub/IranUpdate07...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 28, 2026: Ukrainian President Zelensky met with US President Trump in Washington, DC on July 28 to discuss strengthening Ukrainian air defenses and diplomatic efforts to end Russia’s war against Ukraine. (1/4) Read the report: isw.pub/UkrWar072826
NEW: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated that Russia is preparing to receive another 30,000 North Korean soldiers in response to Russian battlefield casualties. (1/4) Read the full update: isw.pub/KoreanPenins...
NEW: Russian President Vladimir Putin is trying to militarize Russian society and to shift the responsibility for the war in Ukraine onto the Russian State Duma deputies and the Russian population. (1/5) Read the full report: isw.pub/UkrWar072726
NEW: Recent attacks on regional states by Iran’s proxies and partners enable Iran to maintain plausible deniability while continuing to advance its objective of coercing the US to end the war. (1/8) Read the full report: isw.pub/IranUpdate07...
NEW: The Russian Navy is forming unmanned systems regiments, likely in part to protect Russian vessels from intensified Ukrainian strikes against Russian naval assets in the Black and Azov seas.(1/4) Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 26, 2026: isw.pub/UkrWar072626 Other Key Takeaways:
NEW: The current level and type of US strikes have likely failed to meaningfully affect the Iranian regime’s willingness to pursue and secure its strategic objectives with force, including long-term control over the Strait of Hormuz. (1/5) Read more: isw.pub/IranUpdate07... Other Key Takeaways:
NEW: Russian President Vladimir Putin likely used a meeting with Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev to justify his refusal to freeze the frontline in Ukraine and his decision to continue waging the war. (1/5) Read the full update: isw.pub/UkrWar072526
NEW: The Saudi-led coalition struck several Houthi targets across Yemen in order to degrade the Houthis’ capabilities to threaten Saudi-linked shipping in the Red Sea and strike Saudi critical infrastructure. The Houthis responded by attacking Saudi vessels and Red Sea ports. (1/6)
NEW: Ukrainian forces appear to have struck at least 10 Wildberries warehouses (the closest Russian equivalent to Amazon) in Russia and occupied Ukraine in the past week. (1/6) Read the full update: isw.pub/UkrWar072426
