Frederick Deknatel
@freddydeknatel.bsky.social
Journalist, fellow at Century International @tcfdotorg.bsky.social, editor of @Hidden-Cities.com Previously: Founding executive editor, Democracy in Exile @dawnmenaorg.bsky.social; managing editor @wpr.bsky.social; staff editor @foreignaffairs.com
Trump take freedom of navigation: “What was once free and unfettered is no longer,” said Aaron David Miller. “And there is almost nothing that Trump can extract from an agreement that the Iranians are willing to accept that changes that reality.” www.ft.com/content/87b0...
Donald Trump trapped between escalation and an Iran deal on Tehran’s terms
US president faces few good options to exit a war he once said would end swiftly with the Islamic republic’s surrender
ft.com
Who could have ever seen this coming? Iran “is betting its ability to inflict pain on the US economy is its best leverage… As countries deplete their stockpiles at record rates, there could be sustained price increases by the end of the year. US emergency oil reserves hit 40-year lows this summer.”
Iran Is Staking Everything on Controlling the Strait of Hormuz
Tehran’s hard-line approach threatens to destroy its economy and relations with its neighbors. It is willing to take the risk.
wsj.com
“Whatever solution leaves Iran in control of the strait will be a very tough sell for Trump but there is also no military solution to remove Iran’s control of the strait. Trump’s options are between an unwinnable war and an unpalatable peace.” @alivaez.bsky.social www.nytimes.com/2026/08/03/u...
An Emerging Deal Between Iran and Oman to Reopen Hormuz Would Come at a Cost for Trump
The deal would address President Trump’s most urgent political problem by allowing ships to move again. But it would give Iran strategic leverage it did not have before the war.
nytimes.com
“The U.S. is now rethinking the scope of its footprint in the emirate, said U.S. officials familiar with the deliberations, even as Kuwaiti officials have said they still need a firm commitment of American support.” There’s going to be a lot more of this coming. www.wsj.com/world/middle...
The U.S. Liberated Kuwait but Now Struggles to Protect It From Iran
Washington is rethinking the wisdom of its large military footprint in the Persian Gulf emirate.
wsj.com
New poetry in @hidden-cities.com, by Mohammed Abu Lebda in Gaza: www.hidden-cities.com/p/the-traged...
I’m sure this tidy two-week “go big” bombing campaign won’t last a day longer than that and will definitely turn the tide in the war.
“Trump’s idea of power has led directly to his loss of ability to shape events in the Gulf…The more Trump declares things that are obviously untrue—by repeating, for example, that Iran has agreed to all his terms—the fewer people believe him.” @edwardluce.bsky.social on a world shrugging at Trump:
Trump’s waning sway over the world
The habitual trolling that serves him at home is sapping his potency on the global stage
ft.com
For any other president, this would be an all-consuming scandal, leading to impeachment. www.nytimes.com/2026/07/24/b...
Trump Administration Admits Canceling Grants to States That Did Not Vote for Him
Federal officials said in court documents that they halted billions of dollars in funding for energy projects to states “based solely” on whether they backed President Trump in the 2024 election.
nytimes.com
“The war continuing in the manner that it is playing out right now is their worst-case scenario,” said Dina Esfandiary. “That is because it does not give them the opportunity to rebuild and maintain their image as a haven for stability in an unstable region. It affects their very models.”
Exclusive | Bahrain, Kuwait Warplanes Struck Iran in Rare Gulf Retaliation
The strikes earlier this month reflect Arab reckoning with a lengthy war that threatens to draw them in even more deeply.
wsj.com
"The Houthis constitute a nuclear option for Iran—a nonnaval power that can execute a maritime blockade and hold the global economy hostage. They did this before and are aware they have this leverage. They have a desire to test red lines and see if they can set new ones." @adammbaron.bsky.social
The Houthis Have Opened a New Front in the U.S.-Iran War
The Yemeni militants have set up a standoff in one of the world’s most vital waterways with its threats against Red Sea oil shipments.
wsj.com
“Three military officials said one reason behind the change was that the Trump admin decided to remove four service members killed this past weekend from the list — three in Jordan and one in northern Iraq — because their deaths occurred after Trump declared a cease-fire in the war in April.” 🙃
Number of U.S. Troop Deaths in Iran War Appears Lower on Pentagon Website
Three military officials and a Pentagon spokesman gave conflicting explanations for why the number of Americans killed in the Iran war had changed.
nytimes.com
Kushner's corruption, at least what is publicly available, amounts to $110 million from the Saudi government in management fees, for the $2 billion investment it made in his private equity fund. Seems relevant!
A nuclear deal for the Saudis. A media blackout for Kushner’s corruption.
On Wednesday, the Trump administration signed a 30-year nuclear agreement with Saudi Arabia that paves the way for the kingdom to enrich its own uranium.
popular.info
Judd Legum@juddlegum.bsky.social · 2w agoNews outlets that covered the US-Saudi nuclear deal without mentioning that Jared Kushner, Trump’s top foreign policy advisor, is getting paid by the Saudi government: WSJ NYT AP Reuters CNN NBC ABC CBS The Guardian Semafor Washington Post Fox News New York Post BBC Newsweek MS NOW
The US can't force open the Strait of Hormuz militarily — a reality that not just Trump but a large contingent of US political elites can't or won't accept, even though it was Trump's blunder of a war that led to Iran closing it in the first place. www.ft.com/content/1cbe...
News outlets that covered the US-Saudi nuclear deal without mentioning that Jared Kushner, Trump’s top foreign policy advisor, is getting paid by the Saudi government: WSJ NYT AP Reuters CNN NBC ABC CBS The Guardian Semafor Washington Post Fox News New York Post BBC Newsweek MS NOW
A nuclear deal for the Saudis. A media blackout for Kushner’s corruption.
On Wednesday, the Trump administration signed a 30-year nuclear agreement with Saudi Arabia that paves the way for the kingdom to enrich its own uranium.
popular.info
The US is massing even more military forces in the Middle East — I wonder if Trump is going to start calling this a surge. www.wsj.com/world/middle...
U.S. Surges Forces Toward Middle East, Giving Trump Options to Expand Iran War
The influx of troops, medics and weaponry follows the deaths of three U.S. soldiers in an Iranian attack at a base in Jordan.
wsj.com
My longtime friend and comrade Ashraf Omar still languishes in jail
CPJ, partners demand release of Egyptian cartoonist Ashraf Omar on arrest anniversary - Committee to Protect Journalists
The Committee to Protect Journalists joined partner organizations on Wednesday to mark Ashraf Omar’s second arrest anniversary by calling for his immediate release. In the letter, the signatories voic...
cpj.org
extremely funny to me that analysts whose entire job is to think about these possibilities are only now catching up to Bluesky Consensus
Carl Quintanilla@carlquintanilla.bsky.social · 2w agoRAPIDAN: We “no longer assume a near-term return to freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz. Instead, we expect ongoing military risks to constrain vessel transits .. well into next year ..” 👀
"If the plans currently being elaborated for Gaza go forward, genocide may come to be seen by some nations as the legitimate and lucrative extension of politics by other means." Omer Bartov on Israel's impunity and how Trump's Gaza "vision" perpetuates the genocide: www.nytimes.com/2026/07/21/o...
Opinion | The Grim Lessons of Israel’s War in Gaza
Israel has not been held accountable for its actions in Gaza. The nation and the individuals and countries enabling it to escape punishment may only benefit.
nytimes.com
Crude Oil has 43 days of supply left in the U.S. — the lowest inventory in 45 years @barchart.com ⛽️
One major story of this war is how much the Trump administration is hiding its costs in American lives. Remember how it slow-rolled news of the first deaths of American soldiers in Kuwait in March, lying for days about the severity of that Iranian drone attack? www.nytimes.com/2026/07/20/u...
“Some of this is geography,” said Alan Eyre, a former senior American diplomat in Jordan. “Some of it is Jordan’s willingness to fully align itself with the U.S. strategic and regional goals due to its economic dependence on Washington.” www.wsj.com/world/middle...
Jordan Becomes New Flashpoint in U.S.-Iran War as Troop Deaths Rise
The close U.S. ally has seen a buildup of American forces in the conflict.
wsj.com
The logical endpoint of the American conservative political impulse: pissy HOA behaviors + death squads of otherwise unemployable gun chuds. It's all been leading up to this baby.
Jen Bendery@jbendery.bsky.social · 3w agoNEW: Trump is now threatening to punish Canada for wildfire smoke blowing into the U.S., as a GOP senator intros a bill to sanction Canadian officials “responsible” for the fires driven by climate change. “Insane," says one leading Canadian enviro group. www.huffpost.com/entry/bernie...
Iran’s heightened tolerance for risk is one way of understanding its chokehold on Hormuz. A battered regime believes it has nothing to lose and everything to gain by controlling the strait, as Ben Soodavar writes here in @hidden-cities.com www.hidden-cities.com/p/iran-wont-...
Iran Won't Give Up Its Leverage Over Hormuz
Threats to close the Strait of Hormuz were a decades-long Iranian bluff. Trump's war changed all that.
hidden-cities.com
Frederick Deknatel@freddydeknatel.bsky.social · 3w ago“The nuclear issue can be negotiated. Hormuz cannot,” one regime insider said. “The only regret now is that we should have closed the strait years ago, when the US first imposed sanctions.” www.ft.com/content/ecf0...
Iran’s heightened tolerance for risk is one way of understanding its chokehold on Hormuz. A battered regime believes it has nothing to lose and everything to gain by controlling the strait, as Ben Soodavar writes here in @hidden-cities.com www.hidden-cities.com/p/iran-wont-...
Iran Won't Give Up Its Leverage Over Hormuz
Threats to close the Strait of Hormuz were a decades-long Iranian bluff. Trump's war changed all that.
hidden-cities.com
Frederick Deknatel@freddydeknatel.bsky.social · 3w ago“The nuclear issue can be negotiated. Hormuz cannot,” one regime insider said. “The only regret now is that we should have closed the strait years ago, when the US first imposed sanctions.” www.ft.com/content/ecf0...
“The nuclear issue can be negotiated. Hormuz cannot,” one regime insider said. “The only regret now is that we should have closed the strait years ago, when the US first imposed sanctions.” www.ft.com/content/ecf0...
How far will Iran go for the Strait of Hormuz?
A years-long stand-off with the US over Tehran’s nuclear programme has been superseded by a battle for the waterway
ft.com
“The nuclear issue can be negotiated. Hormuz cannot,” one regime insider said. “The only regret now is that we should have closed the strait years ago, when the US first imposed sanctions.” www.ft.com/content/ecf0...
How far will Iran go for the Strait of Hormuz?
A years-long stand-off with the US over Tehran’s nuclear programme has been superseded by a battle for the waterway
ft.com
"There will be no return to the situation before the war, said @suzannemaloney.bsky.social of Brookings. As in Iraq, American assumptions and misperceptions changed the balance of power in the region, she said, and now the days of the Strait of Hormuz fully free for transit are probably over."
In Iran war, Trump Risks Another American ‘Forever War’
President Trump, who promised to “end wars,” not start them, may have fallen into a familiar presidential trap.
nytimes.com
"There will be no return to the situation before the war, said @suzannemaloney.bsky.social of Brookings. As in Iraq, American assumptions and misperceptions changed the balance of power in the region, she said, and now the days of the Strait of Hormuz fully free for transit are probably over."
In Iran war, Trump Risks Another American ‘Forever War’
President Trump, who promised to “end wars,” not start them, may have fallen into a familiar presidential trap.
nytimes.com
