Joe Roussos

@joeroussos.bsky.social

Philosopher. Decision theory, expertise, models, climate science, science-for-policy. Institute for Futures Studies, Stockholm joeroussos.org 🏳️‍🌈

Futurists, historians, x-risk people: help! Several 20th C thinkers said that we live at the most important time in history. Carl Sagan warned that our technological power now exceeds our wisdom, Derek Parfit called it "the hinge of history". I'm looking for earlier versions of that claim. Ideas?

How do you define wishful thinking? I had a different definition in mind than a speaker at a conference on Friday. They said wishful thinking is: Ann believes that Kamala will win because she desires to have that belief I thought: Ann believes that Kamala will win because she wants Kamala to win

By way of introducing myself, here's a recently published paper! 🔓 It is on unawareness and awareness growth, based on some criticisms of Karni-Vierø "Reverse Bayesianism". I provide a new model of growing awareness and show that it overcomes recent challenges www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

Awareness Revision and Belief Extension

What norm governs how an agent should change their beliefs when they encounter a completely new possibility? Orthodox Bayesianism has no answer, as it takes all learning to involve updating prior b...

tandfonline.com