Noble Francis
@noblefrancis.bsky.social
Economics Director at the CPA, PhD Econometrician & Honorary Professor at the UCL Bartlett School of Sustainable Construction. Tweets on construction & housebuilding. Historic posts: https://www.linkedin.com/in/fnoblefrancis/recent-activity/all/
From the Office for National Statistics (ONS) UK GDP data this morning, the volume of total house building activity in August 2026 was 2.1% lower than in July, a 3rd successive monthly fall, & 11.5% lower than a year earlier. (1/n) #ukhousing #ukconstruction
From the Office for National Statistics (ONS) UK GDP data this morning, the volume of total house building activity in August 2026 was 2.1% lower than in July, a 3rd successive monthly fall, & 11.5% lower than a year earlier. (1/n) #ukhousing #ukconstruction
UK brick deliveries are a useful proxy for new house building starts in the absence of monthly starts data. Deliveries in August 2026 were 8.7% lower than in July & 10.1% lower than a year ago, according to the Department for Business, Innovation, Science & Trade. (1/n) #ukhousing #ukconstruction
Just note that for all the initial noise, public relations & share price rises, 'Your First Home' (i.e. Help to Buy revisited) won't have anywhere near the impact that the initial 'Help to Buy' did (1/n) #ukhousing #ukconstruction
Just note that for all the initial noise, public relations & share price rises, 'Your First Home' (i.e. Help to Buy revisited) won't have anywhere near the impact that the initial 'Help to Buy' did (1/n) #ukhousing #ukconstruction
We finally have the official house building starts & completions data for 2026 Q2 from MHCLG. There were 35,800 house building completions in England in 2026 Q2 & 143,490 completions in the year to Q2 according to MHCLG. (1/n) #ukhousing #ukconstruction
We finally have the official house building starts & completions data for 2026 Q2 from MHCLG. There were 35,800 house building completions in England in 2026 Q2 & 143,490 completions in the year to Q2 according to MHCLG. (1/n) #ukhousing #ukconstruction
UK brick deliveries are a useful proxy for new house building starts in the absence of monthly starts data. Deliveries in July 2026 were 6.8% lower than in June & 19.5% lower than a year ago, according to the Department for Business & Trade. (1/n) #ukhousing #ukconstruction
UK brick deliveries are a useful proxy for new house building starts in the absence of monthly starts data. Deliveries in July 2026 were 6.8% lower than in June & 19.5% lower than a year ago, according to the Department for Business & Trade. (1/n) #ukhousing #ukconstruction
House building activity fell once again as expected in July 2026. House building output in July was 3.6% lower than in June & 10.3% lower than a year ago, according to this morning's GDP data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS). (1/n) #ukhousing #housing
House building activity fell once again as expected in July 2026. House building output in July was 3.6% lower than in June & 10.3% lower than a year ago, according to this morning's GDP data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS). (1/n) #ukhousing #housing
Note that the top 10 UK house builders only directly employ 1 person for every 3 homes they build. Virtually everything is subcontracted out (to small specialist contractors & self-employed workers) to withstand sharp downturns in demand. #ukhousing #ukconstruction
Noble Francis@noblefrancis.bsky.social · 2mo agoThere were 2.07 million people employed in UK construction in 2026 Q2, which was flat compared with Q1 (0.0%) but was 0.5% lower than a year ago. It was also 14.5% lower than the recent peak in 2019 Q1, and at its lowest level since 2001, according to the ONS. (1/n) #ukhousing #ukconstruction
There were 2.07 million people employed in UK construction in 2026 Q2, which was flat compared with Q1 (0.0%) but was 0.5% lower than a year ago. It was also 14.5% lower than the recent peak in 2019 Q1, and at its lowest level since 2001, according to the ONS. (1/n) #ukhousing #ukconstruction
Essentially, the problem for government is not 1.5 million net additional new homes in England in the 5-year parliament or not 1.5 million new homes. The critical problem for government is to stop house building falling even further, for a 5th consecutive year, in 2027. #ukhousing #ukconstruction
Noble Francis@noblefrancis.bsky.social · 3mo agoOverall, total house building activity in June 2026 was 1.8% lower than in May, 8.4% lower than a year ago & 26.3% lower than the October 2022 recent peak. Year-to-date (January to June) activity in 2026 was 8.0% lower than in 2025 & 22.6% lower than in 2022. (13/end) #ukhousing #ukconstruction
In terms of public house building activity, just note that there is a structural break data problem in the ONS public house building data in January 2022 (where the level of activity essentially doubles) so be careful using the data. However,... (10/n) #ukhousing #ukconstruction
Private house building activity in June 2026 was broadly flat (+0.1%) compared to May but 5.7% lower than a year ago, even before most of the lagged impacts of the Middle East conflict on housing demand & costs, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS). (1/n) #ukhousing #ukconstruction
Essentially, the problem for government is not 1.5 million net additional new homes in England in the 5-year parliament or not 1.5 million new homes. The critical problem for government is to stop house building falling even further, for a 5th consecutive year, in 2027. #ukhousing #ukconstruction
Noble Francis@noblefrancis.bsky.social · 3mo agoOverall, total house building activity in June 2026 was 1.8% lower than in May, 8.4% lower than a year ago & 26.3% lower than the October 2022 recent peak. Year-to-date (January to June) activity in 2026 was 8.0% lower than in 2025 & 22.6% lower than in 2022. (13/end) #ukhousing #ukconstruction
Private house building activity in June 2026 was broadly flat (+0.1%) compared to May but 5.7% lower than a year ago, even before most of the lagged impacts of the Middle East conflict on housing demand & costs, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS). (1/n) #ukhousing #ukconstruction
UK brick deliveries are a useful proxy for new house building starts in the absence of monthly starts data. As expected, deliveries in June 2026 were flat compared with May but 11.4% lower than a year ago, according to the Department for Business & Trade. (1/n) #ukhousing #ukconstruction
UK brick deliveries are a useful proxy for new house building starts in the absence of monthly starts data. As expected, deliveries in June 2026 were flat compared with May but 11.4% lower than a year ago, according to the Department for Business & Trade. (1/n) #ukhousing #ukconstruction
London House Price Affordability 20 years ago, 10 years ago & in 2026: May 2006 - Average House Price: £247,591 - Mortgage Rate: 5.14% May 2016 - Average House Price: £500,469 - Mortgage Rate: 2.12% May 2026 - Average House Price: £544,814 - Mortgage Rate: 4.88% #ukhousing
UK House Price Affordability 20 years ago, 10 years ago & in 2026: May 2006 - Average House Price: £166,606 - Mortgage Rate: 5.14% May 2016 - Average House Price: £194,240 - Mortgage Rate: 2.12% May 2026 - Average House Price: £271,295 - Mortgage Rate: 4.88% #ukhousing
The volume of private house building activity in May 2026 was 2.3% higher than in April but 5.3% lower than a year ago, even before the impacts of the Middle East conflict, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS). (1/n) #ukhousing #ukconstruction
The volume of private house building activity in May 2026 was 2.3% higher than in April but 5.3% lower than a year ago, even before the impacts of the Middle East conflict, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS). (1/n) #ukhousing #ukconstruction
London has its own set of problems but it's definitely a national issue. Though there's a definite north/south. Bit simplistic: South East has better viability but fewer people able to buy due to high mortgage rates. North West less affected by rates but viability is a bigger challenge.
UK brick deliveries are a useful proxy for new house building starts in the absence of monthly starts data. As expected, deliveries in May 2026 were 1.3% higher than in April but 8.1% lower than a year ago, according to the Department for Business & Trade. (1/n) #ukhousing #ukconstruction
UK brick deliveries are a useful proxy for new house building starts in the absence of monthly starts data. As expected, deliveries in May 2026 were 1.3% higher than in April but 8.1% lower than a year ago, according to the Department for Business & Trade. (1/n) #ukhousing #ukconstruction
Both Labour & Conservative politicians always make big house building promises, but they have nothing to do with reality. We never even got to Gordon Brown's 240,000 new housebuilding completions a year in the UK target from 2007, never mind more recent fantasy targets... #ukhousing #ukconstruction
Adam Bienkov@adambienkov.bsky.social · 4mo agoAndy Burnham promises the "biggest council house building programme since the postwar period."
UK brick deliveries are a useful proxy for new house building starts in the absence of monthly starts data. As expected, deliveries in April 2026 were 3% higher than in March but 1% lower than a year ago, according to the Department for Business & Trade. (1/n) #ukhousing #ukconstruction
