Over the last couple of months, @engjellushem.bsky.social and I have spent a good deal of time thinking about the future of EU enlargement.
Rafael Loss
@rafaelloss.bsky.social
defence, nukes and nato | prev ecfr, cgsr llnl | he/him latest 👉 https://ecfr.eu/publication/the-bear-with-the-bomb-russian-nuclear-coercion-and-the-future-of-european-deterrence/
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"They must shore up their nuclear and conventional strike capabilities, improve their missile defences, and prioritise stronger intelligence-sharing among NATO allies" ecfr.eu/publication/...
The bear with the bomb: Russian nuclear coercion and the future of European deterrence – European Council on Foreign Relations
Russia is expanding its nuclear-capable, long-range weapon systems to press Europe and fracture NATO. Europeans need to plug the gaps in their nuclear capabilit
ecfr.eu
From today on, NATO members meet in Ankara to discuss pressing defence and security questions. The agenda includes how the member states' 5% commitment has developed, the defence industry and support for Ukraine. Here’s the background reading you need ⬇️
The bear with the bomb: Russian nuclear coercion and the future of European deterrence ecfr.eu/publication/... Our latest policy brief now with a brand new header designed by @ecfr.eu's @chriseichberger.bsky.social! Check out our other “The bear at the door” reports here: ecfr.eu/topic/the-be...
Rafael Loss@rafaelloss.bsky.social · 2mo agoThe bear with the bomb: Russian nuclear coercion and the future of European deterrence In this report for @ecfr.eu, the brilliant Katrine Westgaard and I take on the Russian nuclear threat to Europe and make the case for a European integrated strategic deterrence posture. ecfr.eu/publication/...
With just over two weeks to go until the NATO summit kicks off in Ankara, @ecfreuropeansec.bsky.social compiled a strategic triad of reports on European defence: Making defence European again ecfr.eu/publication/... by @mprochwicz.bsky.social, @jpuglierin.bsky.social and I 1/3
Making defence European again – European Council on Foreign Relations
The Russian threat is not going away any time soon. To defend themselves without America’s help, Europeans need to pursue a new, distinctly European model of de
ecfr.eu
Leaving Vienna after a typically thought-provoking @ecfr.eu Annual Council Meeting. Main takeaway: in 2024 Europeans were denying the death of the transatlantic alliance; in 2025 they were between anger and bargaining; in 2026 they are at depression and approaching acceptance. Onwards.
Deputy head of ECFR’s Warsaw office @mprochwicz.bsky.social presented the results from a war game scenario in which the US confronts Denmark over Greenland while Russia escalates against Europe. Key takeaways are:
For the first time in almost two decades, NATO defence ministers, meeting in the Nuclear Planning Group format, issue a statement committing to “continue enhancing NATO's nuclear deterrence mission”: www.nato.int/en/about-us/... What this could look like? Find out here 👉 ecfr.eu/publication/...
The bear with the bomb: Russian nuclear coercion and the future of European deterrence – European Council on Foreign Relations
Russia is expanding its nuclear-capable, long-range weapon systems to press Europe and fracture NATO. Europeans need to plug the gaps in their nuclear capabilit
ecfr.eu
In her keynote speech starting off day 2 of the #ACM2026 @jkobzova.bsky.social stressed that Europe should stop viewing support for Ukraine as solidarity alone and start treating it as a strategic investment in its own long-term security.
The bear with the bomb: Russian nuclear coercion and the future of European deterrence In this report for @ecfr.eu, the brilliant Katrine Westgaard and I take on the Russian nuclear threat to Europe and make the case for a European integrated strategic deterrence posture. ecfr.eu/publication/...
The bear with the bomb: Russian nuclear coercion and the future of European deterrence – European Council on Foreign Relations
Russia is expanding its nuclear-capable, long-range weapon systems to press Europe and fracture NATO. Europeans need to plug the gaps in their nuclear capabilit
ecfr.eu
The Annual Council Meeting (ACM) meets over the next two days to discuss Europe’s geopolitical playbook in a world of “unorder.” As we kick off this afternoon, you can follow #ACM2026 for live insights and key takeaways!
The Russian threat is not going away any time soon. To defend themselves without America’s help, Europeans need to pursue a new, distinctly European model of defence and deterrence. @jpuglierin.bsky.social, @rafaelloss.bsky.social & @mprochwicz.bsky.social explore how ⬇️ ecfr.eu/publication/...
Making defence European again – European Council on Foreign Relations
The Russian threat is not going away any time soon. To defend themselves without America’s help, Europeans need to pursue a new, distinctly European model of de
ecfr.eu
Being left home alone might be scary-but it can also give us a space to grow more independent & self-confident about our abilities. Enjoyed working w/ @pawelzerka.bsky.social on this @ecfr.eu report & discovering how Europeans are often ahead of their own leaders. @ecfreuropeansec.bsky.social
ECFR@ecfr.eu · 2mo ago✍️New public opinion polling Like little Kevin in the film, European citizens have woken up to an uncomfortable truth: they've been left Home Alone - by an America on whom many thought they could depend, write bsky.app/profile/jkob... & @pawelzerka.bsky.social ecfr.eu/publication/...
Good input to the “intellectual Big-Bang”on European defence by @ecfr.eu. Wide scope of issues, deep analysis/ideas: from European defence industry development to European Strategic Enablers, from European nuclear deterrence to the role of E5+ in pan-European defence developments. 1/
Instead of keeping NATO fully reliant on the US and risk finding it dead in their hour of need, Europe needs to create a security architecture underpinned by Europeans themselves – according to a new report from @ecfreuropeansec.bsky.social https://ecfr.eu/publication/making-defence-european-again/
Making defence European again – European Council on Foreign Relations
The Russian threat is not going away any time soon. To defend themselves without America’s help, Europeans need to pursue a new, distinctly European model of de
ecfr.eu
The US is just reassigning assets that NATO Europe can totally backfill, like *checks notes*... an aircraft carrier strike group and nuclear-powered attack submarines. www.ft.com/content/a217...
Please find our paper here. I was very blessed to work on this with my great colleagues @rafaelloss.bsky.social and Marta Prochwicz Jazowska. ecfr.eu/publication/...
ecfr.eu
Our paper sketches out a plan for Europe to confront the possibility of US abandonment head-on. The goal is not to replicate America’s role in Europe, but to develop a distinctly European model of defence that builds on NATO’s structures but can function with little to no US participation. 2/3
Europeans face a kind of “Schrödinger’s NATO”: the US appears both committed to, and absent from, the alliance at the same time. Instead of keeping NATO fully reliant on America, Europeans need to create a security architecture underpinned by Europeans themselves. 1/3
Between an expansionist Russia and a careless America, one thing is clear: Europeans must be prepared to defend themselves, and quickly. In our new publication for @ecfr.eu, @mprochwicz.bsky.social @jpuglierin.bsky.social and I outline a European way of defence. 👉 ecfr.eu/publication/...
Making defence European again – European Council on Foreign Relations
The Russian threat is not going away any time soon. To defend themselves without America’s help, Europeans need to pursue a new, distinctly European model of de
ecfr.eu
2023 is calling 🤳 ecfr.eu/article/stri...
James Cameron@jjjcameron.bsky.social · 2mo ago"The U.S. aims to provide only half the previous number of strategic bombers..." "...the number of U.S. fighter jets is set to fall by a third... "The U.S. Navy is also set to make fewer destroyers available to NATO, and the U.S. no longer intends to provide any submarines to the alliance."
We must maneuver forward, and backward. Upward, and downward. And always twirling, twirling, twirling towards their center of gravity.
a cartoon of a man in a suit and tie standing at a podium
Alt: Bill Clinton appears on The Simspons. He delivers a campaign speech and ends on “We must go forward, not backward. Upward, not downward. And always twirling, twirling, twirling towards freedom” while circling on stage.
media.tenor.com
Okay Mistral AI, change mentions of “Germany” to “Poland” and repost to the @ecfr.eu website.
a screen that says " i 'm not sure i understand " on it
Alt: GIF of the Siri AI application responding to a query with “I’m not sure I understand”.
media.tenor.com
Rafael Loss@rafaelloss.bsky.social · 3mo agoStriking reversal: How Europeans should react to Trump’s missile cancellation ecfr.eu/article/stri... @ecfreuropeansec.bsky.social
Wenn ich Ukrainer wäre, wäre ich vorsichtig. Die Waffen reichen ja bis nach Moskau und man weiß nicht, wie Russland dann reagiert. Aus ukrainischer Sicht wäre das Eskalationsrisiko zu groß.
Thomas Wiegold@wiegold.de · 3mo agoEs entbehrt nicht einer gewissen Ironie, dass Deutschland in der Ukraine Hilfe bei der Entwicklung weitreichender Waffen sucht - nachdem Deutschland der Ukraine das weitreichende Waffensystem Taurus verweigerte...
The Pentagon announced the withdrawal of 5,000 troops from Germany as punishment for Merz’s criticism of how Trump handles Iran. Europe should accelerate sovereign long-range strike capabilities and forge new defence partnerships, writes @rafaelloss.bsky.social. https://bit.ly/4n4NMoS
Striking reversal: How Europeans should react to Trump’s missile cancellation – European Council on Foreign Relations
Trump’s troop cut in Germany punishes Merz and halts America’s missile plans. Now Europe needs to accelerate its sovereign long-range strike capabilities and fo
bit.ly
The latest U.S.-Germany rift could leave NATO in Europe outmatched by Russia’s long-range firepower, at least in the near term. Story: https://www.twz.com/land/confusion-surrounds-future-of-u-s-long-range-missiles-in-germany-amid-rift-with-white-house
Confusion Surrounds Future Of U.S. Long-Range Missiles In Germany Amid Rift With White House
The latest U.S.-Germany rift could leave NATO in Europe outmatched by Russia’s long-range firepower, at least in the near term. The latest U.S.-Germany rift could leave NATO in Europe outmatched by Ru...
twz.com
German officials said they are looking for ways to address the strategic and economic ramifications of a planned U.S. troop reduction. “The federal government must take this very seriously and once again press the USA for the troops to remain,” Bavarian governor Markus Söder said.
German officials weigh fallout from planned US troop cuts
The broader region is rural and sparsely populated and has long relied on the U.S. military as a security presence and economic engine.
stripes.com