Oren Samet
@osamet.bsky.social
Political scientist studying how oppositions challenge dictators at home and abroad. Opposition parties, authoritarianism, elections, foreign policy, Southeast Asia. Postdoc @ Stanford CDDRL orensamet.com
The Trump State Dept has been weaponizing the language of “values” to undermine the EU and advance far right political actors. Turns out one of its driving forces is a JD Vance protege barely out of college, described as a “savage conservative” www.nytimes.com/2026/04/17/w...
The 27-Year-Old Diplomat Waging Trump’s Cultural War With Europe
nytimes.com
Agreed. Huge hindsight bias in commentary on opposition strategies. Often structural conditions and opposition choices converge with a lot of luck in the mix We can and should learn from successes across cases. But we don’t have to try and make everything into a ready-made formula for victory
Jan-Werner Mueller@jwmueller-pu.bsky.social · 4mo agoIn the wake of HU elections, social media flooded with „Just do x and far-right populism will be defeated“-solutionism. If it were as simple as anti-corruption campaigning, Fidesz would have been defeated by 2018.
Hungarian election certainly portends a vibe shift in how we think and talk about the global health of democracy. But just as Orban’s rise probably occupied too much of the imagination previously, we risk over indexing on his loss as well. The broader systemic shifts are real and have implications
Andrew Little@anthlittle.bsky.social · 4mo agoOne case is one case but it is remarkable how we just saw another wave of reports about the dire state of global democracy, and the poster child of this purported decline just lost a competitive election.
I should note that the ideological convictions here are relatively shallow in the traditional sense: Orbán’s opponent Péter Magyar is quite conservative. But it’s more about vibes than policy positions. What’s clear is that it has very little to do with realpolitik
Oren Samet@osamet.bsky.social · 4mo agoDespite the admin's attempt to position itself as "transactionalist" in foreign policy, it's approach has instead been highly ideological at key moments. Hungary is a perfect example. They're backing Viktor Orbán because key MAGA leaders (esp Vance) see him as an ideological ally 5/
The Iran war has decimated Trump's "isolationist" credentials. But flying more under the radar on this front has been his administration's aggressive intervention in Hungary's domestic politics. It's worth understanding what's driving this, so a brief 🧵 1/ www.politico.eu/article/dona...
Trump promises economic support to Orbán ahead of crucial Hungary vote
Trump’s pledge to use the “full economic might” of the U.S. to help Hungarian economy comes as Orban trails in the polls going into Sunday’s election.
politico.eu
Five years on from the coup that toppled Myanmar’s civilian government, the National Unity Government (NUG) is struggling to maintain relevance. It reflects a challenge that many other oppositions have faced, and one that's at the core of my current research 🧵 1/ www.nytimes.com/2026/02/01/w...
Years After Coup, Myanmar’s Government in Exile Teeters on Irrelevance
nytimes.com
The State Dept continuing to advance a new “values-based” foreign policy. Deploying targeted sanctions against individuals for highly ideological reasons. These are the type of sanctions that used to be levied against rights abusers. Now for European internet regulators
New development in the Trump admin effort to exert federal control over voter rolls. As I wrote a few months ago (see 🧵 below), since the admin’s legal case is weak, the biggest concern here is voluntary compliance by GOP-controlled states. And that’s exactly what we see happening now
Trump’s DOJ offers states confidential deal to remove voters flagged by feds • Stateline
The U.S. Department of Justice has sent confidential draft agreements on voter data sharing to more than a dozen states, part of the Trump administration’s effort to obtain unredacted voter rolls, wit...
stateline.org
Oren Samet@osamet.bsky.social · 11mo agoUseful to break down which threats are just bluster and which have teeth. In the case of proposed election-related exec order (discussed here), there's no statutory power, but there is the power of persuasion So the threat really comes from states voluntarily moving to come into line with the EO
Opposition parties often look abroad for leverage. CDDRL's Einstein-Moos Postdoctoral Fellow Oren Samet explained how “opposition diplomacy” draws attention to repression and shapes international pressure, while exposing challengers to real risks.
Challenging Autocrats Abroad: Opposition Parties on the International
cddrl.fsi.stanford.edu
RA Position! @ozlemtuncel.bsky.social and @osamet.bsky.social are looking for support for a project on opposition coalitions in autocracies. If you are - interested in opposition politics and electoral dynamics, and - familiar with data collection apply by Dec 31: gsu.qualtrics.com/jfe/form/SV_...
“A breakdown in state capacity... is very bad. And paradoxically… that may be the thing that is saving democracy” Pleased to be quoted in this thought-provoking new piece from @zackbeauchamp.bsky.social on the limits of Trump's capacity to erode US democracy www.vox.com/politics/472...
Trump’s war on democracy is failing
And it’s his own fault.
vox.com
‼️⚠️Research Assistant Position! @osamet.bsky.social and I are looking for support for a project on opposition coalitions in autocracies. If you are ✅interested in opposition politics and electoral dynamics ✅familiar with data collection Then, please apply here: gsu.qualtrics.com/jfe/form/SV_...
US ends temporary status for Myanmar nationals, cites upcoming elections as 'progress' Cruel, idiotic, with absolutely no upside. Trump admin living in fantasy land on Myanmar www.reuters.com/world/asia-p...
reuters.com
America still has a values-based foreign policy foreignpolicy.com/2025/05/27/u...
Nahal Toosi@nahaltoosi.bsky.social · 9mo agoInteresting wording.
US intervening directly in a foreign country's politics in a way that conflicts with Trump's supposed "transactionalism." We continue to have a "values-based" foreign policy, just with a different inflection www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025...
Trump threatens to cut US aid to Argentina if Milei loses election
US president says ‘we will not be generous’ if leader fails to win key midterms after promising $20bn to prop up struggling economy
theguardian.com
There is still *one day* left to post a public comment in response to this proposed regulation. You can do so here: www.federalregister.gov/documents/20... either under your name (as I did) or anonymously. There are currently more than 17,000 comments - it's a lot, but still room for more!
Establishing a Fixed Time Period of Admission and an Extension of Stay Procedure for Nonimmigrant Academic Students, Exchange Visitors, and Representatives of Foreign Information Media
Unlike most nonimmigrant classifications, which are admitted for a fixed time period, aliens in the F (academic student), J (exchange visitor), and most I (representatives of foreign information media...
federalregister.gov
Oren Samet@osamet.bsky.social · 11mo agoI know there's a lot happening today, but this is sneaking in under the radar. This proposed new rule would absolutely crush foreign PhD students, potentially making it impossible for them to enroll with any certainty of their ability to finish www.politico.com/news/2025/08...
"...particularly for an administration that has eschewed large foreign interventions" I really wish reporters would stop credulously repeating this claim - it doesn't hold up when you actually look at this admin's foreign policy (Brazil, Europe, Iran, now Argentina, you name it!)
Trump-pledged support for Argentina stirs anger among Republicans
Powerful agriculture groups and their Republican allies in Congress are sounding alarms about the deal.
politico.com
Alternative way of looking at this: if you are interested in promoting elite splits in the regime and its support network, this very much could be the way…
Mark Copelovitch@mcopelov.bsky.social · 11mo agoEither the authoritarianism requires total opposition now, or this, but you can't have both. You need to choose.
One of the greatest safeguards for American democracy (in contrast with other backsliding cases) is the decentralized nature of its election infrastructure, in the hands of states/localities. The Trump administration is trying to whittle that away. Alarming new report with some of the details:
Trump Administration Quietly Seeks to Build National Voter Roll
nytimes.com
This is a major escalation in the Hun dynasty's efforts to crush any opposition to its rule in #Cambodia. This new law allows the gov to arbitrarily revoke citizenship from anyone it deems to be "conspiring" against the state A brief 🧵 on potential implications
Noan Sereiboth@noansereiboth.bsky.social · 11mo agoActing Head of State Hun Sen has promulgated the amendments to the Nationality Law. The amendments allow revocation of Cambodian citizenship from dual nationals and citizens deemed likely to obtain another nationality or foreign protection.
I don’t really think this is a fair characterization. The number of times I’ve seen the US compared *by Americans* to 1930s Germany, or Peronist Argentina, or Orban’s Hungary… There’s also the perils of over-indexing on others’ experiences. Providing historical context from the US is helpful!
Filipe Campante@filipecampante.bsky.social · 11mo agoThe biggest analytical weakness of Americans in trying to understand the current moment is that their powers of analogy begin and end with US history. The idea that something qualitatively different might be arising simply doesn’t occur to them.
This is a major escalation in the Hun dynasty's efforts to crush any opposition to its rule in #Cambodia. This new law allows the gov to arbitrarily revoke citizenship from anyone it deems to be "conspiring" against the state A brief 🧵 on potential implications
Noan Sereiboth@noansereiboth.bsky.social · 11mo agoActing Head of State Hun Sen has promulgated the amendments to the Nationality Law. The amendments allow revocation of Cambodian citizenship from dual nationals and citizens deemed likely to obtain another nationality or foreign protection.
The US cuts are obviously the most dramatic and make up a huge share of the total drop in ODA. But there are pretty steep declines elsewhere, and they are all compounding one another
Nate Schenkkan@nateschenkkan.bsky.social · 11mo agoMajority of the cuts are coming from the US, Germany, and the UK, but there are nine other donors reducing assistance
This is likely to have significant immediate and longer term implications for democracy and human rights struggles. These numbers are pretty dramatic (although giving everything not hugely surprising)
Nate Schenkkan@nateschenkkan.bsky.social · 11mo agoHuman rights-focused ODA will drop in proportion, by 31% through 2026; full scale of funding cuts to be felt in the next 6-12 months
The echoes of Cambodia, Venezuela, and elsewhere are very strong here. Turkey’s “nearly stunning election” in 2023 lit the spark for extreme backlash and an effort to extinguish opposition I discuss more here: onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10....
Yusuf Sarfati@yusufsarfati.bsky.social · 11mo agoIn the meantime in Turkey, the AKP regime appoints a trustee to the Istanbul administration of the main opposition CHP. Another attempt to change Turkey to a close autocracy. No matter how much the regime closes formal channels of opposition, societal opposition would find new channels.
Once again, my IR research agendas are converging! Opposition politicians conducting international outreach/advocacy + a repurposing of the “values-based” foreign policy/freedom agenda by right-wing actors
Daphne Keller@daphnek.bsky.social · 11mo agoI can't believe the U.S. Congress is flying Nigel Farage over to tell them about freedom of expression in a hearing this week. judiciary.house.gov/committee-ac... Hey people in the UK, are there any particularly choice tidbits you'd like to share about this guy??
Once again, my IR research agendas are converging! Opposition politicians conducting international outreach/advocacy + a repurposing of the “values-based” foreign policy/freedom agenda by right-wing actors
Daphne Keller@daphnek.bsky.social · 11mo agoI can't believe the U.S. Congress is flying Nigel Farage over to tell them about freedom of expression in a hearing this week. judiciary.house.gov/committee-ac... Hey people in the UK, are there any particularly choice tidbits you'd like to share about this guy??
Useful to break down which threats are just bluster and which have teeth. In the case of proposed election-related exec order (discussed here), there's no statutory power, but there is the power of persuasion So the threat really comes from states voluntarily moving to come into line with the EO
jamelle@jamellebouie.net · 11mo agohow would this work, exactly? let's say jon ossof wins reelection next year. who forces the state of georgia to throw out the ballots? bsky.app/profile/jmb0...
I have mixed feelings about this bc I have great respect for Cambodian rights defenders. But I really do not think Cambodia holds many positive lessons for the struggle for/defense of democracy Tbh, it’s a cautionary tale of how liberal rhetoric and commitments can manifestly fail to produce change
Protect Democracy@protectdemocracy.org · 11mo agoNEW Democracy Atlas: Leadership isn’t confined to the political sphere — it can stem from anyone working to make a change. In our latest, we learn endurance from Cambodia’s unexpected pro-democracy leaders: https://www.ifyoucankeepit.org/p/rule-4-leadership-lives-in-everyone
Useful to break down which threats are just bluster and which have teeth. In the case of proposed election-related exec order (discussed here), there's no statutory power, but there is the power of persuasion So the threat really comes from states voluntarily moving to come into line with the EO
jamelle@jamellebouie.net · 11mo agohow would this work, exactly? let's say jon ossof wins reelection next year. who forces the state of georgia to throw out the ballots? bsky.app/profile/jmb0...