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PZ Spiders

@pzmyers.bsky.social

Biologist at the University of Minnesota Morris.

42384 Posts6118 Follower1389 Folgt
Micah@rincewind.run · 5d ago

“the blue wave is big enough to swamp multiple gerrymanders and give dems a huge majority” should not blind dems to the fact that the map is still tilted against them in a normal year and they had better keep fighting fire with fire on the gerrymandering front

Stephen Wolf@stephenwolf.bsky.social · 5d ago

GOP gerrymanders shifted the median congressional seat from Trump+3.1 in 2024 to Trump+4.5 in 2026—3 points more than the national result of Trump+1.5. That unfair advantage could grow by several points in 2028 if only the GOP redraws more maps, but new Dem maps may be able to fully counteract them

A table from The Downballot titled "Median Congressional District Comparison: Democratic-minus-Republican Presidential Margin." For each election scenario, it shows the median district, that district's presidential margin, and the number of districts carried by the Democratic candidate. It does this for both the 2024 and 2020 presidential results. Negative margins favor Republicans and are shaded red, positive margins favor Democrats and are shaded blue, and darker shading means a larger margin. National popular vote: Republicans won by 1.5 points in 2024, and Democrats won by 4.5 points in 2020. 2022 actual map: The median district is CA-40, with a margin of R+2.3 in 2024 and 207 Democratic seats. For 2020, the median is MI-08, with a margin of D+2.0 and 226 seats. 2024 actual map: The median is AZ-01, at R+3.1 with 205 seats in 2024. For 2020, it is VA-02, at D+1.9 with 224 seats. 2026 actual map: The median is WI-01, at R+4.5 with 201 seats in 2024. For 2020, it is OH-01, at D+0.2 with 219 seats. 2028 potential map, new GOP maps only: The median is IA-01, at R+8.5 with 193 seats in 2024. For 2020, it is FL-14, at R+2.8 with 209 seats. 2028 potential map, new maximalist GOP maps only: The median is FL-22, at R+10.3 with 185 seats in 2024, which is the most Republican result in the table. For 2020, it is IN-01, at R+4.4 with 201 seats. 2028 potential map, new maps from both parties: The median is MI-08 in both years. It is R+2.0 with 211 seats in 2024 and D+2.0 with 223 seats in 2020. 2028 potential map, new maps from both parties with maximalist GOP maps: The median is MI-10 in both years. It is R+6.5 with 203 seats in 2024 and R+1.0 with 215 seats in 2020. 2028 potential map, new maximalist maps from both parties: The median is PA-07, at R+3.2 with 208 seats in 2024. For 2020, it is MI-07, at D+0.5 with 220 seats.
PZ Spiders@pzmyers.bsky.social · 5d ago

As a boomer who saw all the star wars movies, the general consensus at the time was that the phantom menace was crap. Trade war? Jar-jar Binks? Big bad Sith Lord only lasts about 2 minutes in a fight? Spaced out Amidala & so many costume changes? So cringe. So disappointing.

Oliver Willis@owillis.bsky.social · 5d ago

as a late genxer who went to the midnight showing of phantom menace, we knew in real time that the movie was a gigantic turd of a film. we always knew. this is rewriting history.