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Aleks Szczerbiak

@aleksszczerbiak.bsky.social

Professor of Politics at the University of Sussex https://polishpoliticsblog.wordpress.com/

61 Posts500 Follower347 Folgt
Aleks Szczerbiak@aleksszczerbiak.bsky.social · last mo.

Why does the Polish Peasant Party matter so much? The parliamentary survival of Poland’s agrarian party is on a knife-edge as it has lost much of core rural-agricultural electorate, and its distinctive identity is overshadowed in the governing coalition. The party’s ability to clear the electoral…

Why does the Polish Peasant Party matter so much?

The parliamentary survival of Poland’s agrarian party is on a knife-edge as it has lost much of core rural-agricultural electorate, and its distinctive identity is overshadowed in the governing coalition. The party’s ability to clear the electoral representation threshold could determine whether pro-government groupings secure a majority at the next election. A class-based rural-agricultural party In December 2023, a coalition headed up by liberal-centrist Civic Coalition (KO, until last autumn Civic Platform: PO) leader Donald Tusk took office following eight years’ rule by the right-wing Law and Justice (PiS) party, currently the main opposition grouping.

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Aleks Szczerbiak@aleksszczerbiak.bsky.social · 2mo ago

What are the prospects for Poland’s ruling coalition? Poland’s ruling coalition is likely to survive until the scheduled 2027 parliamentary election despite presidential veto constraints and internal frictions because access to state resources incentivises cohesion. However, its re-election…

What are the prospects for Poland’s ruling coalition?

Poland’s ruling coalition is likely to survive until the scheduled 2027 parliamentary election despite presidential veto constraints and internal frictions because access to state resources incentivises cohesion. However, its re-election prospects depend on whether the election focuses on the government’s domestic record or national security narratives. Little prospect of an early election In December 2023, a coalition headed up by liberal-centrist Civic Coalition (KO) leader Donald Tusk took office following eight years’ rule by the right-wing Law and Justice (PiS) party, currently the main opposition grouping.

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Aleks Szczerbiak@aleksszczerbiak.bsky.social · 3mo ago

Will Poland’s main right-wing opposition party split? Poland’s main right-wing opposition grouping faces its most serious internal crisis as falling poll ratings and pressure from more radical rivals expose deep factional divisions. A bitter clash between the ascendant traditionalist-conservative…

Will Poland’s main right-wing opposition party split?

Poland’s main right-wing opposition grouping faces its most serious internal crisis as falling poll ratings and pressure from more radical rivals expose deep factional divisions. A bitter clash between the ascendant traditionalist-conservative and former prime minister’s modernising-technocratic factions raises the real possibility of a damaging split before the next election. Opinion poll slide Law and Justice (PiS), Poland’s right-wing ruling party between 2015-23 and currently the main opposition grouping, has been on the back-foot since last autumn when the honeymoon from its candidate Karol Nawrocki’s unexpected June 2025 presidential election victory began to wear off.

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Aleks Szczerbiak@aleksszczerbiak.bsky.social · 4mo ago

How will the EU defence loan veto affect Polish politics? The right-wing Polish President’s veto of an EU defence loan programme ignited a fierce clash with the liberal-centrist-led government, crystallising deep divides over military modernisation and EU relations. While the President minimised…

How will the EU defence loan veto affect Polish politics?

The right-wing Polish President’s veto of an EU defence loan programme ignited a fierce clash with the liberal-centrist-led government, crystallising deep divides over military modernisation and EU relations. While the President minimised the anticipated political costs, the dispute sharpened polarisation and turbo‑charged the ruling coalition’s ‘Polexit’ and security narratives. A politically explosive veto Last month Polish President Karol Nawrocki - who is aligned with the right-wing Law and Justice (PiS) party, the country’s main opposition grouping - vetoed government legislation creating a financial instrument enabling Poland to access its 43.7 million Euros allocation from the EU’s Security Action for Europe (SAFE) defence procurement initiative.

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Aleks Szczerbiak@aleksszczerbiak.bsky.social · 5mo ago

What impact is the left-wing parliamentary speaker having on Polish politics? The new speaker has transformed the post into a forceful political weapon, using its powers to shield the government, sideline opponents and amplify the left’s influence. Controversial yet highly effective, he has become…

What impact is the left-wing parliamentary speaker having on Polish politics?

The new speaker has transformed the post into a forceful political weapon, using its powers to shield the government, sideline opponents and amplify the left’s influence. Controversial yet highly effective, he has become one of the liberal-centrist prime minister’s key strategic allies and the ruling coalition’s uncompromising enforcer. A key strategic position In December 2023, a coalition headed up by liberal-centrist Civic Coalition (KO) leader Donald Tusk took office following eight years’ rule by the right-wing Law and Justice (PiS) party, currently the main opposition grouping.

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Aleks Szczerbiak@aleksszczerbiak.bsky.social · 6mo ago

What are the prospects for Poland’s far-right politician Grzegorz Braun? A far-right politician’s unexpectedly strong presidential bid has up‑ended Poland’s right-wing landscape, transforming him from a political eccentric into a disruptive force that the mainstream can no longer ignore. His surge…

What are the prospects for Poland’s far-right politician Grzegorz Braun?

A far-right politician’s unexpectedly strong presidential bid has up‑ended Poland’s right-wing landscape, transforming him from a political eccentric into a disruptive force that the mainstream can no longer ignore. His surge exposes deep fractures on the Polish right and raises the question of whether his radical 'anti‑system' appeal marks a temporary protest spike or more lasting re-alignment. Presidential election wild card…

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Aleks Szczerbiak@aleksszczerbiak.bsky.social · 7mo ago

Why has Poland’s right-wing opposition lost momentum? Although the right-wing candidate’s presidential election win initially emboldened the opposition, it increasingly turned in on itself as the government stabilised its position. Nonetheless, the conservative camp still appears on track to win a…

Why has Poland’s right-wing opposition lost momentum?

Although the right-wing candidate’s presidential election win initially emboldened the opposition, it increasingly turned in on itself as the government stabilised its position. Nonetheless, the conservative camp still appears on track to win a majority at the next election if the President can help re-construct the broad alliance that secured his victory. Emboldening the opposition In December 2023, a coalition government headed up by liberal-centrist Civic Coalition (KO) leader Donald Tusk took office following eight years rule by the right-wing Law and Justice (PiS) party, currently the main opposition grouping.

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Aleks Szczerbiak@aleksszczerbiak.bsky.social · 8mo ago

Has the Tusk government regained the political initiative? After recovering from the shock of its candidate’s presidential election defeat, Poland’s ruling coalition is doubling down on holding its right-wing predecessor to account for alleged abuses of power and focusing on national security.…

Has the Tusk government regained the political initiative?

After recovering from the shock of its candidate’s presidential election defeat, Poland’s ruling coalition is doubling down on holding its right-wing predecessor to account for alleged abuses of power and focusing on national security. However, the government still faces considerable political and socio-economic challenges, and many Poles remain frustrated at its inability to deliver on flagship election promises. A radically new political landscape…

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Aleks Szczerbiak@aleksszczerbiak.bsky.social · 8mo ago

Will the Tusk government lose its parliamentary majority? The imminent resignation of a TV-personality-turned-politician from the leadership of the nominally ‘anti-duopoly’ liberal-centrist party that he founded threatens the ruling coalition’s cohesion and stability. To remain in office after the…

Will the Tusk government lose its parliamentary majority?

The imminent resignation of a TV-personality-turned-politician from the leadership of the nominally ‘anti-duopoly’ liberal-centrist party that he founded threatens the ruling coalition’s cohesion and stability. To remain in office after the next election, it will need a replacement pro-government party that can appeal to voters looking for ‘newness’. Crucial for Mr Tusk’s victory The liberal-centrist ‘Poland 2050’ (Polska 2050) is a junior partner in the current ruling coalition - led by Donald Tusk, leader of the Civic Coalition (KO - until October 2025 Civic Platform: PO), a larger liberal-centrist grouping that was Poland’s main governing party between 2007-2015 - which came to office in December 2023.

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