Bryan Carmody

@jbcarmody.bsky.social

The Sheriff of Sodium | Pediatric nephrologist | EVMS associate professor | APD | Husband | Dad | Virginian | Advocate for medical trainees and common sense

Some interesting figures from the AAMC’s Post-MCAT Questionnaire: 88% of MCAT test-takers say they are “very likely” to apply to MD-granting medical schools - but only 32% say the same for DO-granting schools

OpenEvidence has revenue of $50 million. But investors value it at $6.1 BILLION. So… a couple of questions for the “AI won’t replace doctors!” crowd: What do you think OE’s long-term monetization pathway looks like? And what do investors expect to happen that could justify this valuation?

Screenshot of OpenEvidence investment prospectus, noting revenue of $50,000,000 with valuation of $6,100,000,000.

Last week, the president issued a proclamation imposing a $100,000 fee on new H-1B visa applications. It’s generated lots of discussion - much of which isn’t grounded in facts or logic. So who really wins - and who loses - with the six-figure H-1B? thesheriffofsodium.com/2025/09/24/t...

The $100,000 H-1B Visa: Winners & Losers Edition

Last week, President Trump signed a proclamation requiring a $100,000 fee for all new H-1B visas. (For anyone unaware, the H-1B program allows American companies to employ skilled foreign workers w…

thesheriffofsodium.com

On September 24, ERAS will open to programs. Which means applicants have only 2 weeks left to decide which programs to signal. And if you want to know how to allocate your signals in the most effective manner possible, I’ve got something for you: thesheriffofsodium.com/2025/09/10/t...

The Applicant’s Guide to Strategic Preference Signaling

Whenever I discuss preference signaling on social media, one of the first replies is always “Wait – what’s that?” In the olden days, when an applicant was interested in a particular residency…

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New episode of Bio(un)ethical is out now, with @jbcarmody.bsky.social! Bryan Carmody: Are doctor shortages real? We discuss: - Why people think there aren't enough doctors - Why many access problems reflect misallocation (vs shortages) - What models projecting shortages miss - AI (the 🐘 in the 🏥)

Starting in July, the minimum passing score for the USMLE Step 2 CK exam will increase from 214–>218. (Recent first-time pass rates for US students have been ~98%, so this is not a surprising move.)

Change to Step 2 CK Passing Standard Begins July 1, 2025. At its June 2025 meeting, the USMLE Management Committee conducted a review of the USMLE Step 2 Clinical Knowledge (CK) passing standard. Management Committee members include individuals with experience on state medical boards, medical school and residency program faculty from across the United States, practicing physicians, residents, and public members. The Committee decided that a four-point increase in the passing standard – used to determine a Pass or Fail outcome – will apply to Step 2 CK examinees testing on or after July 1, 2025.  On the three-digit score scale, the passing standard will change from 214 to 218.

Today, residency applicants will find out whether they matched or not. But to find out where, they’ve gotta wait another 4 days. Need something to pass the time? Might I recommend a 6 part video series covering the past, present, and future of the Match? thesheriffofsodium.com/2022/03/17/t...

The Match: The Movie

Over the past week, subscribers to the Sheriff of Sodium YouTube channel have been treated to a sprawling and expansive six-part video series on the Match – including the long-awaited Part 6,…

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DOs as a percentage of licensed physicians, by state: 1. Oklahoma - 22% 2. Michigan- 20% 3t. Iowa, Maine - 18% 5t. Idaho, Nevada, W. Virginia, Pennsylvania, Delaware - 16% . . . 46t. Georgia, Connecticut - 8% 48t. Louisiana, Maryland - 6% 50. Massachusetts - 5% 51. DC - 4%

Why an applicant would use a pseudonym to send a complaining email, 9 days before rank lists were due, to a residency program at which they’d done an away rotation and a research project (and at which they were ranked highly) is beyond me. But anyhow, now they’re on PubMed.

Screenshot of the first page of the article “To Catch a Catfish: A Cautionary Tale of Internet  Unprofessionalism.” Full text link below.Figure from the linked article, showing rapid program leadership response to unusual email, resulting in unranking applicant in 4 days.

Resident physician salaries rise only at the rate of inflation - completely untethered to any other market force. The median PGY-1 salary for current residents is $65,100… which is ~$48,000 in 2012 dollars in case you wanted to plot it on the graphic below.

Graphic from the New England Journal of Medicine demonstrating the mean salary of a first-year resident from 1968 to 2012, with values standardized to 2012 dollars. All of the points on the graphic range from ~$41,000 to ~$54,000, with values after 1983 more tightly clustered between ~$45,000 and ~$52,000.

New data on the primacy of signaling in the residency application process. Note the massive drop-off in interview rate for signaled/non-signaled applications, especially in ‘big signaling’ specialties. Deciding where to signal is *the* new high stakes meta-game in residency selection.

Graphic demonstrating the interview rate at the median program in each specialty for MD applicants who signaled or did not signal the program with their application. There is a significant drop off in interview rates for non-signaled applications. In less-competitive specialties with low signal numbers (e.g., pediatrics - 5), 83% of signaled applications yielded an interview, while 40% of non-signaled applications did. In more competitive specialties with high signal numbers (e.g., neurosurgery - 25), 31% of applicants who signaled received an interview, while 1% of non-signaled applicants did.