The poll* is already several months old, but note the big increase in anxiety around AI and other future technologies. * American Psychiatric Association / Morning Consult. Original post
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It's funny how people who "forecast" elections on vibes can't comprehend using an algorithm. Like maybe it's wrong; lots of design choices in building a model. But we do our thinking when building the model. Once it's built there aren't many decisions to be made from day to day. Original post
All right, that Model Talk is published. Since it’s October and those Halloween pop-up stories are everywhere, I wanted to talk about everyone’s most feared monstrosity: Systematic Polling Error. It’s a real thing. Original post
So yeah, those NYT polls helped Democrats. Not as much as you might think because FLIPR was already pretty optimistic for Dems, but still... Repost of @AlexThomp: Original post
Aaron Rodgers is flirting with the replacement-level line. We have him in the Geno Smith Zone. Original post
QBERT 2026 NFL quarterback ratings
Our advanced statistical ratings on every quarterback’s past, present, and future are back for the new NFL season.
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I've seen people ask why include 2025 and the answer is that well it's the most recent election, seems worth looking at. Incidentally, polls had a R bias in 2017 and were unbiased in 2021. Original post
FLIPR update. Race-by-race polls not as bad for Republicans this week. Gas prices down slightly, too. OTOH, oil futures were up a bunch today and Trump's approval rating again hit another new low. Original post
FLIPR 2026 midterm election forecast
Silver Bulletin's prediction for every Senate, House, and gubernatorial election in 2026.
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The direction of polling error in recent years: * 2008: Unbiased * 2010: Unbiased * 2012: R bias * 2014: D bias * 2016: D bias * 2018: Unbiased * 2020: Even bigger D bias * 2022: Unbiased * 2024: D bias, less than 2016/2020 * 2025 (e.g. NJ/VA): Big R bias Original post
This map was more interesting than I was expecting. Note that deep red streak in Appalachian/southeastern Ohio. But it's not really present in similar counties in Pennsylvania. Original post
It's only been 3 games but it's been a good season for us Brock Purdy admirers / Justin Hebert skeptics. Original post
QBERT 2026 NFL quarterback ratings
Our advanced statistical ratings on every quarterback’s past, present, and future are back for the new NFL season.
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We're working to get our NFL content out earlier in the week. Not that it takes an advanced statistical model to tell you this, but every team in the NFC South is already projected to have a losing record again. Original post
This is one of the greater self-owns of all time in the admittedly somewhat undignified history of the U.S. Senate, just how Eric Schmitt thinks he's fucking Matlock. Repost of @sahilkapur: Original post
Repost by @NateSilver538 RT by @NateSilver538: Gif Repost of @NateSilver538: Click to see original repost
It's time for my favorite biannual Silver Bulletin feature, or NBA Future of the Franchise rankings! Our panel ranked all 30 franchises by their expected number of championships over the next 10 seasons. 30. Clippers 29. Kings 28. Pelicans 27. Bucks 26. Nets 25. Wizards Original post
There's slippery terrain between "AI as an economic sector is a potential financial bubble" (plausible) and "AI as a technology is just hype" (YMMV but I think basically proven wrong at this point). People often assert the former claim to cover for bad takes about the latter. Original post
AI is a big W for 40-somethings. Old enough to have learned how to do things the right way, young enough to learn some new tricks. Original post
Hey folks, we're now hoping to update our ELWAY ratings 2x a week instead of 1x. So the new ratings are in, including the Thursday Night game and updated injury info. Here are our current injury-free (left) and injury-adjusted ratings. Original post
The Vermont governor race is a fun one. Only UNH has polled the race, and they now have the Democrat ahead. But Scott won by 52 points in 2024 and all the expert raters have it solid R! FLIPR has no idea. Original post
There isn't any; you're just paranoid. Repost of @BillAckman: Original post
I wrote a whole book on this subject, and the thesis is about the normative and practical importance of human agency. It doesn't help that people like you have no idea WTF AI can do right now. Repost of @matthewstoller: Original post
The whole problem is that the AP's language is inaccurate and politically charged. I don't particularly trust the labs. But most (certainly not all) people with real expertise in this field would consider their guidance to be presumptive at best. Repost of @adamjohnsonCHI: Original post
IDK if you polled some unbiased sample of experts in the field (granted, "experts" and "unbiased" are doing a lot of work there), I imagine most of them would roughly agree with the idea that AI models "think," at least for more advanced tasks. Repost of @EoinHiggins_: Original post
Interesting that Dems' generic ballot gains have come from undecideds rather than Republicans, whose numbers have held steady. Original post
The whole "don't anthropomorphize AI" thing is very Woke 1.0. People trying to police language that is perfectly natural in some cases and ending up in a web of contradictions. Repost of @TheStalwart: Original post
Repost by @NateSilver538 RT by @NateSilver538: This is interesting, via @NateSilver538: In 2024, one takeaway was that the Red Wave was especially strong in blue cities. In 2026, the Blue Wave seems especially strong in red states. Click to see original repost
Polls over the past week or two (mostly GREAT for Democrats, but Collins still ahead in Maine?!?) tell an internally consistent but slightly weird story: D gains are overwhelmingly concentrated in red states. Original post
ELWAY update out for the week. You can get a sense here for how the model really likes good QBs. Buffalo looks like the best team in football. As mentioned last night, the model also really likes Brock Purdy and the 49ers. Patrick Mahomes' rating is ticking back up. Original post
